Cal Expo Pick 4, May 12

Race 6

Letter of Intent (5-2), our nemesis in recent weeks, returns in the first leg of the Pick 5 after dropping in class from $2,500 to $1,800 and drawing the enviable 4 post. Her back-to-back second place finishes should turn into a first here, but not without a stern challenge from another mare dropping down in class. Miss In Class (2-1) is making the same drop though will be racing from the difficult 7 post. In her last race, Miss In Class fired out from the 6 hole to the lead and went wire-to-wire. She's capable of the same here.

Bet: 4, 6

Race 7

Paul the Powerful (5-2) should provide the early speed and could go wire-to-wire in this $2,300 pace. He came up just short for us last week after fighting gamely down the stretch to finish third behind Little Box Out (9-2) and Wrangler Reward (5-1). Shoot the Works (2-1) is the prohibitive favorite though the Amateur Handicapper is leaning towards Little Box Out.

Bet: 4, 5

Race 8

Meringue (6-5) is the class of this field but draws the mildly unfavorable six post. Last trip out was uninspiring and in fact this entire season has been a disappointment for the winner of 24 lifetime. Of the also-rans, Say It Best (9-5) is the best (though lightly raced this season) and should benefit from his drop in class two races back. The hottest horse, Bobby Baccala (6-1) had the worst luck at the draw (7) and is coming up the most (from $2,000 to $3,200).

Bet: 2

Race 9

King Carver (8-5) has been perfect in 2011 unless you count his last race, which he won but was DQ'd to place. Let's look for some value here with Badger Creek (5-1), who is coming off a win in 1:59.2 after a string of disasters, and with Midnight Flyer (12-1), who should get a shot from behind the 1 horse.

Bet: 6, 7, 9

Pick 4 ticket: 46/45/2/679 = $12