Harrah's Chester, Pick 4, Sunday, July 24

Harrah's Chester, Pick 4, Races 7 - 10, Sunday, July 24, 2011

The Sunday Pick 4 at Chester is guaranteed for $7,500, a bump up from from the standard $5,000 guarantee for the rest of their cards.

Bet: $1 on 1248/1/25/7 = $8

Analysis:

Race 7: (1) Forever Good was very good in 2010, finishing in the money in 21 of his 36 races and earning more than $46,000. But the 7YO has only won two races and placed once in 23 starts in 2011, his last win coming in a $10,500 race at Chester on May 27. He was recently purchased, however, by Chasing Paper out of Delaware and is being trained by Joseph Skowyra. He picks up a new driver, Corey Callahan, one of Chester's best. Will the changes do Forever Good any good? His first race for Chasing Paper was a fifth place finish two lengths back after a rough trip during which he was parked for nearly half the race. He did win in 1:52 at Dover Downs, which is perhaps reason for optimism.

(4) Zander Massimo is the morning line favorite at 5-2 coming off an impressive win over Native Art on July 17 in 1:52.4. Zander Massimo is having the kind of year in 2011 that Forever Good had in 2010 -- that is, he's finished in the money 18 of 25 races for more than $75,000. He's won twice in his last four and has been a model of consistency, crossing the wire in five consecutive races in under 1:53.

(3) Native Art has played the role of bridesmaid often this year but has found the winner's circle but once in 10 tries, and that in a leisurely 1:53.2 (speed rating of 85) on May 17. The 5YO bay gelding was nearly three lengths inferior to Zander Massimo last week.

(2) Dream Possession is steady as he goes. As a 10YO, he finished in the money half of his 20 starts, which include back-to-back wins at Chester in times of 1:52.4 and 1:53.

Zander Massimo should provide the early speed and dictate the terms of the race. His top competition much prefers to stalk.

(8) Isaac Newton has been a mediocre pacer of late but he's proven this year to be every bit the horse as any one else in the field judging by his 1:51.3 win at Chester on June 10.

A difficult race to handicap.

Bet: 1, 2, 4, 8

Race 8: (1) One More Laugh was a top 3YO and has won more than $2.2 million over two-plus campaigns. This year, then, must be a disappointment to his owners at the Creative Racing Stable: Only one win in 11 tries for paltry $77,000. No wonder the gelding is on his fourth driver of the season, David Miller. His best winning time this year is nearly four full seconds off his Big M best last year of 1:47.4.

(2) Blueridge Western is a first-rate second tier pacer who would have been no match for One More Laugh in 2011 despite 10 wins in 43 tries. This year, however, the 6YO gelding has paced consistently at 1:50 and 1:51, which puts him in good company with One More Laugh.

(3) Stonebridge Wish is another first-rate second tier pacer. The 8YO has finally figured something out. In 2010 he set a lifetime winning best of 1:49.4 and this year he's already won three more total races and more than $30,000 in purse money.

Look for One More Laugh to reassert himself and reclaim some of the glory of last year.

Bet: 1

Race 9: (5) Nova Artist is dropping considerably in class (from $32,500 most of the season to $12,000 this week) and should perform well here as he appears to be rounding into shape. He began the season a house on fire, winning four times by late February including a season best 1:50.3 at Dover Downs on Feb. 21. He took the month of May off and his return has been gradual to say the least. But he's demonstrated improvement in July, ticking off lower times each race: 1:56.2, 1:52.2 and 1:51.1. He's the morning line favorite at 5-2.

If Nova Artist isn't yet all the way back, look for (2) Shakearosa to compete. However, Shakearosa is in a slump of his own. He hasn't finished in the money since May 29. He, too, is dropping in class, but only from $21,000 and $16,000.

Bet: 5, 2

Race 10: This race is an Open Handicap for $70,000 and all the best pacers have drawn outside posts. Interesting.

(7) Won the West is not even the favorite despite his back-to-back Breeders Crown wins in the Open Paces of 2009 and 2010 and, more recently, his blazing Gold Cup victory in 1:47.2 back on June 18. His last four speed ratings are 103, 104, 106, 104. Wow!

No, the favored status (at least in the morning line) goes to We Will See, a 4YO on a very impressive roll of late: He's been driven by Ron Pierce to three wins and two places in his last five races, all sub-1:50s.

This should be a dramatic showdown.

Bet maturity over youth: 7.