Stanley Dancer @ The Big M

Here's a question that's been bugging the Amateur Handicapper for awhile now, brought into focus by the draw for tomorrow night's Million Dollar Pace at the Big M: Why, when the 5 post has been the most productive of the season (14.6 percent of the winners have come from it) by more than 2 percentage points, would the two pacers who got to pick their post choose the 2 post (Big Jim) and the 3 post (Custard the Dragon)? Naturally, when it comes to racing luck, more bad things can happen from the 5 than either the 2 or the 3. Still, that 14.6 winning percentage is intriguing. Just sayin'.

Before the Amateur Handicapper looks at the Meadowlands Pace, let's first break a sweat with the Stanley Dancer Open for 3YOs.

The sixth race on Saturday's card shapes up to be a wild one. (5) Dejarmbro draws that lucky post and gets some early line loving at 5-2. A favorable post notwithstanding, all this colt has done is win 13 of 17 lifetime starts including his last four in dynamite fashion. (His last time out he won going away by five lengths and two trips back he clocked a 100 speed rating! Huzzah!)

But Dejarmbro should have all he can handle with (8) Pastor Stephen (winner of 9 out of 16 lifetime) and (2) Broad Bahn (winner of 6 out of 14). Of course, Pastor Stephen will have to improve on his best ever winning time by a second and Broad Bahn by two seconds if either is to compete with Dejarmbro at his best.

(4) Charlie De Vie is the best of the rest but will have to leap forward in form. His race on June 18 featured a disastrous break while in the lead and a 23-length loss in seventh place. Even his win on July 1 was in a lethargic 1:54.2 and a modest speed rating of 87.

Can't see how Dejarmbro loses (of course, it's easy to say that before the race goes off!) but wonder about getting fair odds. If the colt is no worse than 2-1 the Amateur Handicapper is going to bet $20 on him to win.

Good luck at the windows!