Delaware County Fair, Pick 4, Races 10-13, Sept. 20

Delaware County Fair Pick 4, Races 10 - 13, Tuesday, Sept. 20

A guaranteed pool of $5,000 for the Pick 4 at the Delaware County Fair.

$2: 5/5/15/6 = $4

Race 10: Gotta love a 10YO mare with 210 races to her name and 98 of those in the money. That's (1) Bigaffairintown, a steady pacer at around 2 minutes a mile, give or take a second or so. But you've also gotta love a 5YO gal who has made as much cash ($56,000) as Bigaffairintown in half the time, and with a lifetime best of 1:53.2 and a 1:55.4 at the Big M only a year ago.

Hard to see how (5) Decided Advantage has a decided advantage but she's the morning line fav at 3-1 and has paced a mile in 1:56 flat down the street from where I live at Scioto Downs as recently as this year.

Youth or wisdom? Youth has it this time.

Bet: 5

Race 11: Let's all give a big hoo-ray for (3) Hooray For Valerie, the cream of this mediocre trotting crop. (But then, what do you expect for a $2,200 race for fillies and mares non-winners of $2,000 in the last five races?) Eight of her last 10 races have been clocked at under 2:00, which is better most of the time than most here. (5) Should Be Aboy should be at or near the lead with Ray Paver in the sulky and a victory in 2:00.4 at Northfield as recently as Aug. 5. She's also lifetime $50,000, which none of these girls has even sniffed, 'ceptin' Valerie.

Bet: 5

Race 12: Ah, finally a real race with a real purse ($17,722). So why does it have to feature those irrascible 2YOs? And from Ohio no less! But let us proceed: (1) Jessica Rayne is not, as far as we know, a stripper at Solid Gold. Rather, she's the 9-5 morning favorite and with good reason. Never broke 2:00 but has won five of eight heading into this trot.

How does one put any money at all on (3) Lofty Jessica? Sure, she has a soaring kinda name, but c'mon, she's never gone better than 2:07 in finising either first or second in 11 of 12 races. If she's been holding out on us, she's been doing it seven seconds slower than our Jessica.

Much more of a legitmate threat to Jessica Rayne is (5) Rose Run Natassia. She's only one once in five tries but she's earned more than $26,000 and at least clocked in within a few seconds of her top rival at 2:02.3.

Bet: 1, 5

Race 13: At the risk of offending, these ladies have been road hard and put up wet! That explains why they're pacing for the princely (princessly?) sum of $1,700. The optimistically named (2) Quick Pulse is expected to go off at or near 5-2 based on the strength four shows in her last six races. Just as capable of a 2:05 as a 1:56.

(5) Badlands Kate has cycled in and out of 1:56/1:57 miles and more mediocre times at the 2:00 minute mark. She's been stuck at or above 2:00 since Aug. 8 but is capable of better. Ray Paver will be at the reins in what should be a walk with (6) Savannah Girl, who has paced sub-2:00 miles in 10 of her last 11. Hard to see how any in this field can touch her.

Bet: 6.