Harrah's Chester Pick 4, Sunday, Oct. 23

Bet: $1 ticket 28/26/26/28 = $16

Analysis:

Race 7: (2) Modern Desire is the morning line favorite at 5-2 but it's difficult to gauge his prospects at a mile since he's paced his last nine at a mile and a sixteenth. He has paced a mile in 1:51.1 this season, which makes him worthy of note though he's off the fastest mile in this group of eight by a second. (6) General Montgomery has won in 1:50.3 this year but he has a red flag of his own: he's lost the last two times he entered as a favorite, finishing sixth in both contests. (I know standarbreds are smart animals, but do they know when they're favored?!) (8) Hit Away has also paced a 1:50.3 but that was long ago in a galaxy far away. His best in the last 12 was a 1:51 flat on July 9 from the five hole. This is a tougher spot for him here and he's in much richer company than his usual $14,000 to $16,000. (They are pacing this seventh for $23,000.)

Let's go with the horse with the best speed rating (95) in his last five races: Modern Desire. And if the pace is as slow as it looks it might be (1:53 or even 1:54) let's add the hardest closer in the bunch: Hit Away.

Bet: 2, 8

Race 8: (4) Fancyfreeshark is the 5-2 favorite but it's hard to tell exactly why. A season's best winning time of 1:52.2 at Dover, a recent winning qualifier in 1:53.2, nearly $49,000 in earnings over 17 trips. (6) Warrawee Monarch is more intriguing: four wins and a place in his last six starts and the lone clunker on a sloppy track where he quit trying and finished ninth. He began his streak with an impressive 1:50.4 and has paced between 1:51 and 1:53 since. The post is a concern.

When (7) Albert Chief A is good, he's very good: On Oct. 9 he won a $16,000 mile in 1:50.3 with a 99 speed rating. But when he's bad, he's ordinary. He's only won 2 of 12 since July 3 and the 10 non-wins were all out of the money. Extraordinary, really.

In our experience, (3) Real Special ain't. (2) Shadows Dream should command a better price and his last outing was an impressive win by a neck after making up five lengths. The jump from $14,000 to $25,000 makes sense given his recent form.

In an even field, let's lean towards the hot hands.

Bet: 2, 6

Race 9: (2) Smok'n Muscles had a nice little streak going: six straight wins from June 28 through Sept. 19 including a season's best 1:56.2 by 11 lengths. He deserves the early line love (7-2).

(6) New York Colossus will either win or break, take your pick and your chances. The trotter has broken in six of his last 12 and won four times. Too risky to bet straight up, too risky to leave off our ticket.

Bet. 2, 6

Race 10: This is the most attractive field in the Pick 4, a $60,000 open handicap pace. (8) Stonebridge Tonic would be even more compelling than 5-2 (and might be bet down in fact) but for his unlucky post draw. But in his seven-race winning streak he's won from the 6, 6, 7 and 5 post positions. He can get to the front right quick and has been able to hang on after he does. He's also versatile, winning four times at a mile and three times at a mile and a sixteenth during his current streak. Oh, did we mention his three 101 speed ratings? Huzzah!

(7) Blatantly Good can be very good. He had a streak of his own, racing sub-1:50s in five straight races, although he only won two of them.

(2) PH Jackpot broke two races back and still crossed the wire first (though he was eventually DQ'd for interference. Still an impressive recovery. He paces consistently in the 90s and even has a speed rating of 106 while pacing a mile and a sixteenth in a blazing 1:58.2 on July 23.

Bet: 2, 8