Woodbine Late Pick 4, Race 9 - 12, Saturday, Oct. 29

Woodbine Late Pick 4, Races 9 - 12, Oct. 29


.50 play: 45/2468/2469/127 = $48


Analysis:


Race 9: Last season, (4) Chapter Seven was slower (1:55) but more dominant (seven wins in eight tries) but after a disappointing fourth in the Hambo the trotter has really come into form. He's won two straight impressively (including a 1:52.4) and beat qualifying competition back on Sept. 30 by a whopping 22 lengths. Wow!

This being the Breeders cup, Chapter Seven will get all he can handle from (5) Manofmanymissions, winner of nine of 14 this year and three straight. He's been more consistent than Chapter Seven and faster (1:52.1) but has been unable to stay flat in three of his most recent nine races.

George Brennan will no doubt have (7) Broad Bahn at the lead early and taking on all comers. The winner of the Hambo (in 1:53) will have his hands full, however, holding off Manofmanymissions and Chapter Seven.

(8) Daylon Magician loves to stalk and has won more than $900,000 this year (11 wins in 15 tries) but the post is likely to be too much for him to overcome, especially if Brennan burns up the early fractions.


Bet: 4, 5


Race 10: (4) Cedar Dove deserves to be the prohibitive (2-1) morning line favorite, but she does have an infrequent habit of breaking stride (in three of her last 12). Still, she's all but unbeatable when flat and enters this trot for 3YO fillies with four wins in her last five.

(6) Hey Mister likes to come from behind and driver Brian Sears should have her poised if Cedar Dove does go off stride. Others who might contend is the favorite breaks include: (2) Iron Lady and (8) Lady Andover.


Bet: 2, 4, 6, 8


Race 11: Sure, San Pail will be battling the Europeans earlier in the day, but for my money this pace for 3YO colts and geldings is the most interesting on the Breeders Crown card. Essentially, it's a much more wide open replay of the Little Brown Jug. And, really, five or six have a legitimate shot here.


(4) Betterthancheddar would seem to deserve more love from the morning line odds maker (5-1) after his blazing 1:49.1 elimination win over Hugadragon (9-2).


(2) Westward Ho Hanover paced himself into contention with a monster elimination win in 1:49.4. Peaking at the right time.


(6) Roll With Joe is the odds maker's favorite at 3-1 but he hasn't done much to impress since losing in the Jug final to Big Bad John. Not that there's anything wrong with a second and a third in 1:50 and change, but not dominating either.


Speaking of (9) Big Bad John, he won his first race after the Jug (at Lexington) in a leisurely 1:50 but was a disappointing third in his Breeders Crown elimination after getting shuffled to the back and being parked for half the trip. But he did show quite a bit of pace in charging from seventh to finish third. His post means he'll need some racing luck, but he's plenty of horse if he gets it.


Bet: 2, 4, 6 and 9


Race 12: When it comes to speed ratings, (1) We Will See is a 100-making machine: throw out his last as a quirky odd trip and his recent ratings have been 103, 107, 103, 102, 103, 103, 102. Oh, and he's won 11 of 22 races for more than $1.1 million this year as a 4YO.


(2) Foiled Again is another 100-making machine and has beaten We Will See on Oct. 22 and Aug. 27. So, it's possible. Though the edge certainly goes to We Will See.


Hard to leave a pacer off your ticket who has eight consecutive trips under 1:50 including three wins and a season's best of 1:48.3, which is why we're not leaving (7) Dial of Nodial off our ticket.


Bet: 1, 2 and 7