The Amateur Handicapper

Maywood Park Pick 4, Races 11-14, Friday Dec. 2

2011-12-01T17:13:00.000-08:00

The Pick 4 on Friday night at Maywood Park is for a guaranteed pool of $10,000 with a take-out of 15 percent.

Bet: $1 on 35/2/13/256 = $12

Analysis:

Race 11: (5) Dontgetbyme is, understandably, the early morning favorite at 9-5. The 6YO black gelding by Dontgetinmyway out of Quest for Truth has finished in the money in 19 of 32 races this year including a season's best 1:51.4. His win on Nov. 4 was in 1:53.2 with a speed rating of 92. The horse just never has a bad race. But it won't be easy.

(1) Ice Man Comet'h has two wins and two places in his last five, albeit in slower times (1:55/1:56) than he'll need to win here. And coming from the six post won't help matters as he's notoriously slow out of the gate. (2) Seawind Gambler had a short holiday at $12,500 before heading back in class here to $10,000. Four wins in his last 12 but inconsistent. (3) Fox Valley Griffin has a 1:51.1 to his name this season and a 1:52 flat at Indy as recently as Oct. 29.

Bet: 3, 5

Race 12: (2) Desert Flower is the closest thing to a single we're likely to get. The fillie was knocked around at higher levels but drops to $7,500 and has a win in 1:53.2 as recently as Oct. 2. Would like to see better recent form, but in this group that may not matter. (1) Challenge My Heart is the next best on the board at 4-1 but is jumping up in class from $4,000. Didn't fare well at this level in her first try.

(5) Blazing Fury hasn't won in so long it's hard to figure why he's at 5-2 in the morning line. He has hit the board in 16 of 29 races (though with only four wins). But he's spent most of the last four months hanging with the big boys (at anywhere from $10,000 to $20,000) and should benefit from a significant drop in class.

Bet: 2

Race 13: Wanna bet the field? Cuz this $3,500 is wide open! (1) Bauer's Z Tam, the 2-1 morning line fav, hasn't won since the beginning of August. (3) Smoken Cambest is second favorite off a nice qualifying win on Nov. 25, but it's a smokin' win at Lexington on Sept. 11 in 1:54.3 that caught our eye. Really, a two horse race barring a Twilight Zone occurrence.

Bet: 1, 3

Race 14: (2) Race Track Stormy has every opportunity here and is a good value at 3-1 or better. But this is another race (for $3,800) that could be a single or a field, depending on your druthers. At this level, Race Track Stormy won in 1:53.2 back in August. But the 3YO gelding has eased off that torrid pace lately and settled for times in the mid 1:50s. For this group, that's still stout.

(6) George's Ztam has only won once this year and not since the summer solstice. His best second place finish is 1:54 in his last 12. But he's won more money per start than any other horse in the race.

Look, if Race Track Stormy comes even close to 1:53.2 this race is over before it begins. If, on the other hand, the pace is slow and the winner crosses the wire closer to 2 minutes, then things change.

In the case of the latter scenario, then one must consider (5) Body Guard, even at 15-1. After all, the 3YO gelding has three recent wins between 1:55 and 1:58 and an interesting seventh finish in 1:53. Carried? Perhaps.

Bet: 2, 5, 6

Maywood Park Pick 4, Races 8-11, Dec. 1, 2011

2011-12-01T10:54:00.000-08:00

Tonight's Pick 4 at Maywood Park has a guaranteed pool of $7,500

Bet: $1: 13/14/234/13 = $24

Analysis:

Race 8: (1) Don'tmakemelaugh is the prohibitive early morning favorite at 2-1. The 6YO mare hasn't been in the money since an early September trip in 1:54.3, easily the fastest mile paces by any other horse in the field. Three of these ladies have yet to find the winner's circle in 2011 and they're running out of time. (4) Allamerican Virgin is the natural second choice (3-1) though one would have to read all the way back in the program to August to find a couple of races where she'd finished as high as third. The class drop from $5,000 to $3,200 should help. (3) Banjoe Hotspur has been the best horse most recently of any in the field, posting a victory in an impressive 1:56.4 after roaring from the 8 post and leading at every call.

Bet: 1, 3

Race 9: (4) Rich N Fancy has made money in every one of her races this year. The caveat? She's only raced three times. So, not much of a track record to go on, but she's much the best in this group: fastest mile by a full two seconds; best speed rating in the last race; highest winning percentage, etc. Of course, we're talking here about a field of 2 and 3YOs, so inexperience is the operative word. (1) A Piece of Diana is coming off a win in 1:59.2 and has been in the money in eight of 14 on the campaign. (1) Inside Scoop is racing for the first time in her life after qualifying last week in a blistering 1:58.3. Intriguing.

Bet: 1, 4

Race 10: (2) Lola's Park has seven solid miles in her last 10. Alas, the other three miles, all in the last 30 days, were dismal seventh place finishes, two by 10 lengths. Is she fading at the end of a long season? Or are all those first, seconds and thirds from the fall just around the corner again? The morning line suggests the latter: she's at 2-1. An OK mare in a competitive field. All eight standardbreds are capable of pacing in 1:57 or 1:58. Notice, we said "capable," not "likely."

All things (ie horses) being equal, let's throw out the 7 and 8 posts as having too much to overcome. (3) Melody Hotspur has to be in our reckoning as she won the last time out (albeit in 1:59.2) and consistently paces sub-2 minute miles. (6) Sporty Pants is the mirror image of Melody Hotspur minus the recent victory. Doubtful that (4) Chickiechickiewawa has a shot but it'd be a shame not to even mention a horse with such a great name! Upon further inspection, though, no other in the field has had as hot a stretch as Chickie in late July and early August
with wins in 1:55 and 1:56.

Bet: 2, 3, 4

Race 11: (8) Epona is the best horse here in the worst spot. (Only 6.8 percent win from the 8 post at Maywood.) She's coming off an impressive place in 1:57.3 and has the highest speed rating (75) of any here in her last race. She also has the best earnings per start at $607. (6) Delightful Dot has not paced well of late but is dropping significantly in class. (3) Im a Sally Sue is coming off back to back wins but likely will have to improve on her 1:59s to compete here. She's certainly capable of doing so: her season best is 1:54.1 at Balmoral Park. (1) Four Major Titles came from off the pace in her last race, making a move from ninth to finish third with a final quarter of :28.4. She is in the best form of any fillie or mare in the field.

Bet: 1, 3

Woodbine Late Pick 4, Race 9 - 12, Saturday, Oct. 29

2011-10-28T20:30:00.000-07:00

Woodbine Late Pick 4, Races 9 - 12, Oct. 29

.50 play: 45/2468/2469/127 = $48

Analysis:

Race 9: Last season, (4) Chapter Seven was slower (1:55) but more dominant (seven wins in eight tries) but after a disappointing fourth in the Hambo the trotter has really come into form. He's won two straight impressively (including a 1:52.4) and beat qualifying competition back on Sept. 30 by a whopping 22 lengths. Wow!

This being the Breeders cup, Chapter Seven will get all he can handle from (5) Manofmanymissions, winner of nine of 14 this year and three straight. He's been more consistent than Chapter Seven and faster (1:52.1) but has been unable to stay flat in three of his most recent nine races.

George Brennan will no doubt have (7) Broad Bahn at the lead early and taking on all comers. The winner of the Hambo (in 1:53) will have his hands full, however, holding off Manofmanymissions and Chapter Seven.

(8) Daylon Magician loves to stalk and has won more than $900,000 this year (11 wins in 15 tries) but the post is likely to be too much for him to overcome, especially if Brennan burns up the early fractions.

Bet: 4, 5

Race 10: (4) Cedar Dove deserves to be the prohibitive (2-1) morning line favorite, but she does have an infrequent habit of breaking stride (in three of her last 12). Still, she's all but unbeatable when flat and enters this trot for 3YO fillies with four wins in her last five.

(6) Hey Mister likes to come from behind and driver Brian Sears should have her poised if Cedar Dove does go off stride. Others who might contend is the favorite breaks include: (2) Iron Lady and (8) Lady Andover.

Bet: 2, 4, 6, 8

Race 11: Sure, San Pail will be battling the Europeans earlier in the day, but for my money this pace for 3YO colts and geldings is the most interesting on the Breeders Crown card. Essentially, it's a much more wide open replay of the Little Brown Jug. And, really, five or six have a legitimate shot here.

(4) Betterthancheddar would seem to deserve more love from the morning line odds maker (5-1) after his blazing 1:49.1 elimination win over Hugadragon (9-2).

(2) Westward Ho Hanover paced himself into contention with a monster elimination win in 1:49.4. Peaking at the right time.

(6) Roll With Joe is the odds maker's favorite at 3-1 but he hasn't done much to impress since losing in the Jug final to Big Bad John. Not that there's anything wrong with a second and a third in 1:50 and change, but not dominating either.

Speaking of (9) Big Bad John, he won his first race after the Jug (at Lexington) in a leisurely 1:50 but was a disappointing third in his Breeders Crown elimination after getting shuffled to the back and being parked for half the trip. But he did show quite a bit of pace in charging from seventh to finish third. His post means he'll need some racing luck, but he's plenty of horse if he gets it.

Bet: 2, 4, 6 and 9

Race 12: When it comes to speed ratings, (1) We Will See is a 100-making machine: throw out his last as a quirky odd trip and his recent ratings have been 103, 107, 103, 102, 103, 103, 102. Oh, and he's won 11 of 22 races for more than $1.1 million this year as a 4YO.

(2) Foiled Again is another 100-making machine and has beaten We Will See on Oct. 22 and Aug. 27. So, it's possible. Though the edge certainly goes to We Will See.

Hard to leave a pacer off your ticket who has eight consecutive trips under 1:50 including three wins and a season's best of 1:48.3, which is why we're not leaving (7) Dial of Nodial off our ticket.

Bet: 1, 2 and 7

Woodbine Pick 4, Races 4 - 7, Saturday, Oct. 29

2011-10-28T09:54:00.000-07:00

The first of two $100,000 Breeders Crown Pick 4s begins in the fourth race at Woodbine.

Bet: $1 -- 34/4/15/235 = $12

Analysis:

Race 4: This 2YO Colts and Geldings Pace for $652,535 is no less tough to call just because these are the best 2YOs on the continent! Sure, the two favorites -- (3) Sweet Lou and (4) A Rocknroll Dance -- have to be on your ticket. But what about the 6-1 shot (7) Sing for Me George, who has won five of seven including best of 1:51.2 and an impressive place in his last outing in 1:50.2? Or (8) Speed Again, who was shaky his last time out but had won six of his previous eight including three under 1:51? Even (1) Escape the News offers a touch of intrigue, having won on Oct. 8 at Lexington in 1:50.3, albeit for only an 85 speed rating.

Have to go not only with the fastest horses over a mile but also the hottest horses ...

Bet: 3, 4

Race 5: The mile trot for 2YO colts and geldings is headlined by (4) Possess the Will, a winner in five of his nine starts including a field's best 1:54 flat as recently as Oct. 7. (8) Royal Shyster had an impressive stretch of nine wins in 10 outings between July 14 and Oct. 1 before faltering in his last two. His season's best is a middling 1:57.1 and his last race boasted his first break, all of which explains his 10-1 morning line odds.

Appears to be a good spot to single Possess the Will though if you're inclined to hedge your bet, (3) Uncle Peter has won three of his five races this year. His primary drawback: two breaks in his last four. A risk.

(9) American Gangster has beaten Possess the Will, but that was back on Sept. 11 and the trotters seem to have gone in different directions since then.

Bet: 4

Race 6: Old girlfriends return in the Sixth for this $302,170 Open Mare pace. (5) Anndrovette has won 10 of 18 this season and nine of 17 last and the 4YO is the understandable 7-5 morning line fav, but she hasn't paced a sub-1:50 mile since early in June. The second favorite should be (1) Maureen Rocks, who seems to have peaked a tad too early for the Breeders Crown. But she had a stretch in July and August that included four straight wins and a season's best 1:49.1. She has to be considered here.

(10) Laughandbehappy paced a massive 1:49.1 on July 16 with a speed rating of 99. She hasn't been worse than 1:51.1 in her last 12. But that post is brutal, especially considering she'll be in back of (2) Fred and Ginger, who is as slow-as-molasses at the gait. Where will she find the room to race?

(6) On the Glass has been competitive recently at both a mile and a mile and a sixteenth, but more often as a bridesmaid than as a bride.

(4) Western Silk has been stellar at a mile and a sixteenth (three straight wins at the distance before finishing fourth at a mile the last time out).

Bet: 1, 5

Race 7: OK, so it's a lot of chalk so far, but what are you going to do? We're handicapping the best standardbreds on the continent here! The seventh is an Open Trot for the boys and the purse is $602,340.

And, O!, my, what a couple of years (2) San Pail has had in 2010 and 2011, winning 26 of 30 for more than $1.6 million. But this is an international battle royal and the 7YO gelding might just be the smart money's third choice. That's because Sweden offers up (3) Commander Crowe, winner of 43 races lifetime in 66 starts including six of 12 this year. Youtube is highly recommended to get a sense of just what a fabulous trotter the Commander can be:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REWfZ9o-X8E

What a finish he had to the Prix du Conseil General des Alpes Maritimes in August. Huzzah.

Along with the Commander, the field includes the French trotter (5) Rapide Lebel, who has won 21 of 24 in the last two years and looks just as good on film as Commander Crowe. He made a move halfway through the St. Michel Ajo in July that was reminiscent of Frankel. And then he held off two furious challengers.

On any other card, (4) Arch Madness and (7) Lucky Jim would be automatic on the card. But it's hard to find room for either one in such rich company.

No matter who wins this race, it's likely to be heart-in-your-throat stuff!

Bet: 2, 3, 5

Harrah's Chester Pick 4, Sunday, Oct. 23

2011-10-22T08:58:00.000-07:00

Bet: $1 ticket 28/26/26/28 = $16

Analysis:

Race 7: (2) Modern Desire is the morning line favorite at 5-2 but it's difficult to gauge his prospects at a mile since he's paced his last nine at a mile and a sixteenth. He has paced a mile in 1:51.1 this season, which makes him worthy of note though he's off the fastest mile in this group of eight by a second. (6) General Montgomery has won in 1:50.3 this year but he has a red flag of his own: he's lost the last two times he entered as a favorite, finishing sixth in both contests. (I know standarbreds are smart animals, but do they know when they're favored?!) (8) Hit Away has also paced a 1:50.3 but that was long ago in a galaxy far away. His best in the last 12 was a 1:51 flat on July 9 from the five hole. This is a tougher spot for him here and he's in much richer company than his usual $14,000 to $16,000. (They are pacing this seventh for $23,000.)

Let's go with the horse with the best speed rating (95) in his last five races: Modern Desire. And if the pace is as slow as it looks it might be (1:53 or even 1:54) let's add the hardest closer in the bunch: Hit Away.

Bet: 2, 8

Race 8: (4) Fancyfreeshark is the 5-2 favorite but it's hard to tell exactly why. A season's best winning time of 1:52.2 at Dover, a recent winning qualifier in 1:53.2, nearly $49,000 in earnings over 17 trips. (6) Warrawee Monarch is more intriguing: four wins and a place in his last six starts and the lone clunker on a sloppy track where he quit trying and finished ninth. He began his streak with an impressive 1:50.4 and has paced between 1:51 and 1:53 since. The post is a concern.

When (7) Albert Chief A is good, he's very good: On Oct. 9 he won a $16,000 mile in 1:50.3 with a 99 speed rating. But when he's bad, he's ordinary. He's only won 2 of 12 since July 3 and the 10 non-wins were all out of the money. Extraordinary, really.

In our experience, (3) Real Special ain't. (2) Shadows Dream should command a better price and his last outing was an impressive win by a neck after making up five lengths. The jump from $14,000 to $25,000 makes sense given his recent form.

In an even field, let's lean towards the hot hands.

Bet: 2, 6

Race 9: (2) Smok'n Muscles had a nice little streak going: six straight wins from June 28 through Sept. 19 including a season's best 1:56.2 by 11 lengths. He deserves the early line love (7-2).

(6) New York Colossus will either win or break, take your pick and your chances. The trotter has broken in six of his last 12 and won four times. Too risky to bet straight up, too risky to leave off our ticket.

Bet. 2, 6

Race 10: This is the most attractive field in the Pick 4, a $60,000 open handicap pace. (8) Stonebridge Tonic would be even more compelling than 5-2 (and might be bet down in fact) but for his unlucky post draw. But in his seven-race winning streak he's won from the 6, 6, 7 and 5 post positions. He can get to the front right quick and has been able to hang on after he does. He's also versatile, winning four times at a mile and three times at a mile and a sixteenth during his current streak. Oh, did we mention his three 101 speed ratings? Huzzah!

(7) Blatantly Good can be very good. He had a streak of his own, racing sub-1:50s in five straight races, although he only won two of them.

(2) PH Jackpot broke two races back and still crossed the wire first (though he was eventually DQ'd for interference. Still an impressive recovery. He paces consistently in the 90s and even has a speed rating of 106 while pacing a mile and a sixteenth in a blazing 1:58.2 on July 23.

Bet: 2, 8

Harrah's Chester Pick 4, Sunday, Oct. 9

2011-10-08T09:22:00.000-07:00

Harrah's Chester Pick 4, Races 7-10, Sunday, Oct. 9, 2011.

$2 play: 4/2/478/37 = $12

Race 7: This is a perplexing race to handicap. (4) Tongue Twister is dropping down significantly class (from $20,000 to $16,500) and has proven ability at a mile (winning the last two times out at Chester) and at a mile and a sixteenth (winning on Sept. 20 at Yonkers). Still, the bay pacer by Artsplace out of Nobacktalk is only the 7-2 second favorite to a standardbred, (1) Romantic Thriller, who is making a leap up in class (from $10,500 to $16,500). Having a hard time understanding why Romantic Thriller is the 5-2 morning line favorite. The 6YO gelding by Mach 3 out of Romantic Wind has won four races this year, but in $9,500 company and in only 1:53.2 season best. (Tongue Twister has paced in 1:52.4.

(7) Aboycalledsu should also compete. He's won four straight and six out of seven (including a qualifier) and gets around the oval in 1:53 to 1:57 as needed. Got to like his nose for the wire.

The scary thing about this race is the also-rans. (8) Wildridge Sam has a 1:51.1 win at Chester to his name this year and should go off near 5-1. (6) Card Hustler has had bad racing luck of late but did win as recently as Aug. 31 in 1:52.2. If he's anywhere near his 15-1 morning line, he warrants strong consideration in exotics.

The choice is clear: bet on four or five horses and play it safe while spending a boatload of cash on the bet, or look for our first single of the day.

Bet: 4

Race 8: At what point do we refuse to forgive bad racing luck and decide that a pacer is a heat-seeking missile for bad luck? Looking at (4) Smoke Em Up in the program we see parked, three wide, parked, parked and broke and finished 36 lengths back. Etc. etc. Still, the 4YO gelding is 9-2 in the morning line and certainly can compete ... if he stays our of trouble.

(6) Jim's Guy has been a full second faster at 1:52.3 than Smoke Em Up but has only raced three times after a five month lay-off between April and August. He has steadily dropped in class from $16,000 to $12,000 and gotten better each outing though a traffic jam in his last is a valid excuse for his sixth place finish in 1:53.2. He was a sick scratch on Sept. 30. Too many question marks with this favorite.

(2) Camifications, on the other hand, is getting no love in the morning line (10-1) but did win his last pace in a blistering 1:51.1 and benefits from a driver change to the talented Jim Pantaleano. The class jump -- from $2,500 to $12,000 -- is the greatest concern here.

(5) Keystone Neptune is always a bridesmaid (or a show) and never a bride. He hasn't won since the spring but has placed or showed in seven of his last 12 races.

Let's go with the hottest horse in the batch.

Bet: 2

Race 9: Used to hang out every weekend at Schoolkids Records but that's not enough of a reason to bet on (8) Schoolkids in this tough spot. More compelling by far than nostalgia is Schoolkids recent trips, which include two wins in his last three in 1:51.2 and 1:52.2. Schoolkids also has the best earnings per start and speed ratings in those two wins of 93 and 91, respectively. At 5-1 he should provide a bump in the pay-off, too.

(7) Intrigued Royally has been off his game since being an injured scratch on Aug. 27. Before that scratch, though, he had raced four straight in 1:50.4 or faster including a pair of wins at $23,000. (He's racing here at $25,000)

(4) Rockstar Temper has had much success at a mile and a sixteenth at the Big M and less luck of late at the traditional mile, albeit in much richer company including a $175,000 New Jersey Sire Stakes race on Aug. 13 which yielded a fifth place finish a respectable 3 lengths back in 1:51.2.

Bet: 478

Race 10: (7) Dvcflyingfrenchman could provide value here as he is 15-1 in the morning line despite a significant drop in class from $30,000 to $26,000. He won that race handily (by four lengths) in blistering 1:59.2 over the mile and a sixteenth. (He was claimed after the race by Lou Pena. The drop to a mile should help him here. Color me intrigued.

(5) Complete Desire is the 5-2 morning line favorite but he falls into the category of, Things that make you say, meh. The 5YO gelding hasn't won since June although that was in 1:51.4. His speed ratings in the 70s and 80s do not inspire.

(3) Expensive Toy has slipped back into the 1:53 mile territory after winning in 1:51 flat on Aug. 23. He should benefit from a driver change to Daniel Dube.

Bet: 37

Delaware County Fair, Pick 4, Races 10-13, Sept. 20

2011-09-19T21:31:00.000-07:00

Delaware County Fair Pick 4, Races 10 - 13, Tuesday, Sept. 20

A guaranteed pool of $5,000 for the Pick 4 at the Delaware County Fair.

$2: 5/5/15/6 = $4

Race 10: Gotta love a 10YO mare with 210 races to her name and 98 of those in the money. That's (1) Bigaffairintown, a steady pacer at around 2 minutes a mile, give or take a second or so. But you've also gotta love a 5YO gal who has made as much cash ($56,000) as Bigaffairintown in half the time, and with a lifetime best of 1:53.2 and a 1:55.4 at the Big M only a year ago.

Hard to see how (5) Decided Advantage has a decided advantage but she's the morning line fav at 3-1 and has paced a mile in 1:56 flat down the street from where I live at Scioto Downs as recently as this year.

Youth or wisdom? Youth has it this time.

Bet: 5

Race 11: Let's all give a big hoo-ray for (3) Hooray For Valerie, the cream of this mediocre trotting crop. (But then, what do you expect for a $2,200 race for fillies and mares non-winners of $2,000 in the last five races?) Eight of her last 10 races have been clocked at under 2:00, which is better most of the time than most here. (5) Should Be Aboy should be at or near the lead with Ray Paver in the sulky and a victory in 2:00.4 at Northfield as recently as Aug. 5. She's also lifetime $50,000, which none of these girls has even sniffed, 'ceptin' Valerie.

Bet: 5

Race 12: Ah, finally a real race with a real purse ($17,722). So why does it have to feature those irrascible 2YOs? And from Ohio no less! But let us proceed: (1) Jessica Rayne is not, as far as we know, a stripper at Solid Gold. Rather, she's the 9-5 morning favorite and with good reason. Never broke 2:00 but has won five of eight heading into this trot.

How does one put any money at all on (3) Lofty Jessica? Sure, she has a soaring kinda name, but c'mon, she's never gone better than 2:07 in finising either first or second in 11 of 12 races. If she's been holding out on us, she's been doing it seven seconds slower than our Jessica.

Much more of a legitmate threat to Jessica Rayne is (5) Rose Run Natassia. She's only one once in five tries but she's earned more than $26,000 and at least clocked in within a few seconds of her top rival at 2:02.3.

Bet: 1, 5

Race 13: At the risk of offending, these ladies have been road hard and put up wet! That explains why they're pacing for the princely (princessly?) sum of $1,700. The optimistically named (2) Quick Pulse is expected to go off at or near 5-2 based on the strength four shows in her last six races. Just as capable of a 2:05 as a 1:56.

(5) Badlands Kate has cycled in and out of 1:56/1:57 miles and more mediocre times at the 2:00 minute mark. She's been stuck at or above 2:00 since Aug. 8 but is capable of better. Ray Paver will be at the reins in what should be a walk with (6) Savannah Girl, who has paced sub-2:00 miles in 10 of her last 11. Hard to see how any in this field can touch her.

Bet: 6.

Pick 4 at Harrah's Chester, Sept. 4, 2011

2011-09-03T10:28:00.000-07:00

Harrah's Chester Pick 4, Race 7 - 10, Sunday, Sept. 4

Because Chester canceled its card on Aug. 28 because of Hurricane Irene, the Amateur Handicapper had to wait two weeks to boast about hitting his second Pick 4 of the season for a respectable $354. What made the day memorable was the quality of standardbreds being handicapped: the best in the harness racing business lined up at Chester on Aug. 21 for a shot at more than $2.4 million in purses. See You At Peelers won and remained undefeated in one of our bets. Today is another day.

$1 play: 345/48/678/78 = $36

Analysis:

Race 7: This is a highly competitive race likely to produce an unlikely winner. (4) Dreamlands Art is the morning line favorite at 5-2 but he hasn't won a race since July 2 .Like Dreamlands Art, (3) DVC Flyingfrenchman has paced frequently at a mile and a sixteenth and with some success, including a victory on July 30 by more than four lengths. He's gone his last three miles in 1:51.1 or better and has won twice this year at a mile in 1:49.4. Like him at anything near his 10-1 morning odds. (5) Rescue Plan has the best recent start, a victory at a mile in 1:50 after a tough trip (parked one wide for half the race) and a speed rating of 96. (7) Mr Molly N is another solid pacer though lightly raced this season. The 8YO gelding has won three of five, however, and is always at or around the 1:51 mark for a mile. The post may hurt.

Bet: 3, 4 and 5

Race 8: (4) Zander Massimo is the class of this claiming handicap for a purse of $23,000. The 5-2 morning favorite has won three of his last five races and finished in the money in 22 of 29 this season. (8) Haroun Hanover has a nasty post but has shown tremendous early speed all year long and won from the eight post the last time out. Another pacer who seems always to end up on the board.

Bet: 4, 8

Race 9: Can't lie about his race: it's impossible to handicap. Want proof? How about in the program under "highest winning %" we find the phrase, "insufficient data." Exactly. If you guessed a maiden race you were correct. If you guessed unreliable 2YO pacers, you hit the exacta. So what's a handicapper to do? Let's bet the only three pacers in the race with speed ratings of 70 or above this year.

Bet: 6, 7, 8

Race 10: Nice to get a $60,000 Open Handicap to wash the bad taste of a maiden claimer out of the ol' yap. These veteran pacers should be well familiar to us after a summer of duking it out. (7) Dial Or Nodial is the 5-2 favorite with good reason: the 5YO gelding by Western Ideal out of Smart Dialing has won three of his last six races and paced four trips in speed ratings over 100. His last was a barn-burner over (8) Rockincam by less than a length in 1:49.4. Remember how much love (5) Delmarvalous received early in the season? Well, the horse has fallen on difficult times and is at 8-1 in the morning line. Capable? Sure. Likely? Not very. (6) Mr Massimo has been steady though unspectacular, winning seven of 27 with earnings approaching $200,000. The posts for the favorites are problematic, but the quality of the pacers offsets the obstacle.

Bet: 7, 8

A History of Gambling ...

2011-08-31T11:43:00.000-07:00

The Amateur Handicapper continues his way through the exotic and fascinating landscape of David G. Schwartz' Roll the Bones: A History of Gambling, focusing of late on horse racing in America.

Only because I'm a nerd when it comes to horses (and because I set myself the task/joy of reading one horse racing book in May for the past 15 years) was I able to detect what might be an error in Schwartz' meticulously researched and annotated book.

"The largest crowd every yet assembled in the nation (well over 50,000) gathered at the Union course in Queen's County, New York, on May 13, 1845, to see the North's champion, Fashion, lose to the pride of Tennessee, Peytona."

That rattled around in my brain for a bit until I remembered having read about the very same North v. South match series in The Great Match Race: When North Met South in America's First Sports Spectacle by John Eisenberg. And sure enough, Eisenberg claims that the very first of those matches -- between Eclipse (North) and Henry (South) was held in May of 1823 (also at the Union course) and drew more than 60,000 spectators.

The Amateur Handicapper doesn't mean to brag, but ...

In any case, what interests us most here is the handicapping and wagering aspects of the sport we love so much. About that, Schwartz confides: "Betting on horse racing changed dramatically after the Civil War. Initially, there were two types of wagering: one-on-one propositions and pool-selling or calcutta auctions."

A calcutta auction is the selling off of individual entrants in a competition (a horse race or the March Madness basketball tournament, say) to the highest bidder.

The first book-makers to provide odds for horse races, according to historian Roger Longrigg, did so in Philadelphia in 1866. But soon there were complaints about fixed races many states banned betting at the track. The outcome was predictable.

"Without trackside betting, racing attendance dropped off precipitously."

Another result of the ban was -- remember how successful Prohibition was? -- also predictable:

"Banning bookmaking at tracks hardly stopped gambling, however, and the closure of racetracks barely caused a hiccup in race betting."

We will have our daily wager, won't we?

And where did the gamblers go? Poolrooms, that's where. Remember the scene in The Sting (one of the greatest gambling/con movies of all time) when they set up shop in the basement of that Chicago building and the guy with the straw boater changing the odds, written in chalk, on a big board? The modern equivalent of the practice of betting from a remote location: simulcasting.

Of course, with the advent of television, we contemporary gamblers have an edge over the poolroom patrons of yesteryear. We can see with our own eyes the track condition or whether a horse looks good during the post parade. Not so in the late 1800s.

"As race time approached, betting increased frenetically, as bettors frantically sought to get an edge by trying to overhear some critical bit of news -- that the sky had clouded, a favorite was limping slightly, or a friend knew of a 'sure thing.'

"The electricity built as the betting closed the announcer declared that the horses were at the post, and as he narrated the race, the poolroom denizens lost themselves in a frenzy of hope."

The Amateur Handicapper gets philosophical ...

2011-08-30T13:14:00.000-07:00

The Amateur Handicapper has his eyes on the upcoming Cane Pace (Sept. 10) but has taken a break to read a fascinating book called Roll the Bones: The History of Gambling by David G. Schwartz.

Roll the Bones is epic (570 pages) and covers the history of gambling from the rolling of hucklebones in ancient Mesopotamia through wagering on the Internet in the 21st century.

Author and poker player James McManus (Positively Fifth Street: Murderers, Cheetahs, and Binion's World Series of Poker) provides the introduction and includes a quote from one of America's greatest outside observers, Alexis de Tocqueville, who wrote in Democracy in America: "Those living in the instability of a democracy have the constant image of chance before them, and, in the end, they come to like all those projects in which chance plays a part." Tocqueville said we were inclined to gamble "not only because of the promise of profit but because (we) like the emotion evoked."

This thought brings to mind an image for me of a Midwestern farmer, on his way home from church on Sunday in his buggy or his wagon, pulling up alongside his neighbor's buggy or wagon. And the irresistible urge that the meeting of the farmers would evoke in them to race down the lane to see who had the fastest colt, the fastest filly. And whenever and wherever there is a race, well, by golly, why not a little friendly (or otherwise) wager?

It's in our blood.

Schwartz includes an excerpt from India's ancient classic compilation of poetry, the Rig Veda, that today is known as the "Gambler's Hymn." Though the hymn is told from the point of view of a dice player, the obsession and despair it encompasses could easily be applied to a late Friday or Saturday night at Scioto Downs or the Meadowlands, the floor track side littered with losing tickets.

These dice nuts, born of a lofty tree in a windy spot, which dance on
this gambling ground, make me almost mad. These wakeful dice intoxicate
me like a draft of Soma from Mount Mujavant.

Never has she said an angry word to me, nor has she ever scolded me.
She has been so pleasing to me and my friends. With all this without
any fault of hers I have driven my devoted wife away because of a die
exceeding by one [unlucky throw]

My mother-in-law hates me; my wife pushes me away. In his defeat
the gambler finds none to pity him. No one has use for gamblers, like
an aged horse put up for sale.

Yea, many is the night I've traveled that lonely road home from the track, cursing neither the horses nor the drivers, but my own thrilling, dangerous obsession.

The Pride in Progress @ Indiana Downs

2011-08-23T12:36:00.000-07:00

They'll be trotting for $213,500 in this Hoosier "Free for all" at Indiana Downs.

Easily the hottest trotter in the field is (7) Arch Madness, who has won 8 of 11 races this year and finished second twice for more than $768,000. His last five speed ratings have topped 100 and include a 107 Titan Cup Final win in 1:50.2 at the Big M on July 2.

The 7YO gelding by Balanced Image out of Ambro Archer is having a dream season but his career hasn't been too shabby either: he's won 27 of his 69 races, placed 18 times and showed another 5 for more than $3.1 million.

Simply a beautiful animal.

(3) Lucky Jim had the kind of year in 2009 that Arch Madness is having in 2011. In that campaign he won 17 of 18 races and was named best older male trotter. His lifetime best mark is 1:50.1 but the best the 6YO has managed this year is 1:52.2. He was third by a length to San Pail and Arch Madness back on Aug. 6. When Arch Madness crushed the field in the Titan Cup it was Lucky Jim who took the lead at the second call before falling eight lengths back to place.

(1) All Cantab and (1a) Il Villagio are coupled at 4-1 in the morning line. The latter, a 4YO by Yankee Glide out of Dance to Market, has won 4 of 9 starts this season but finished fourth or worse in his other five races. An encouraging sign: wedged between disappointing fifth and fourth place finishes in his last four races are two victories, both in 1:51.4. So, Il Villagio has trotted his two fastest times in the past month.

Arch Madness would be a prohibitive favorite had he not drawn the post position 7, a spot from which only 8 percent of the horses have won. (By comparison, 14.5 percent of horses have won from Lucky Jim's post position 3.)

Ace driver Brian Sears will be in the sulky for Arch Madness and Andy Miller for Lucky Jim, so that mitigating factor should be a push. Both drivers are tops at the Meadowlands and Chester.

Interestingly, both Arch Madness and Lucky Jim were beaten favorites the last time out.

Barring any sort of weirdness (bad weather, say, or bad breaks) this race sets up to be all chalk.

Bet: $10 to win on Arch Madness.

Bet: $1 trifecta box: 1, 3, 7

Harrah's Chester Pick 4, Sunday, August 21

2011-08-19T11:14:00.000-07:00

Harrah's Chester Pick 4, Races 7 - 10, Sunday, August 21

What a day of racing at Chester! More than $2.4 million in purses up for grabs by the finest pacers and trotters in the country. Which means we have our work cut out for us.

$1 play: 245/156/2/15 = $18

$1 play: 245/156/124/15 = $54

Analysis:

Race 7: The Colonial 3YO Open Consolation is the first leg of the Pick 4. The $200,000 trot features the 5-2 morning line favorite (4) Bambino Hall, a convincing winner his last time out by more than two lengths in 1:54 and a speed rating of an even 100.

(2) Charlie De Vie had an awful stretch where he broke stride in three of four races (between June 18 and July 30) but will be hoppled for the second time and finished third to Manofmanymissions and Whit in 1:53.1. Before that bad patch Charlie De Vie had won four straight and five of six.

Were it not for a disastrous result in the Hambo final (early break and ninth place finish, 19 lengths back) (5) Magnum Kosmos would be the hottest trotter in the field having won four of his last six including a victory by 14 lengths in a lifetime best 1:53.2 at Pocono Downs. Should provide some value here.

Bet: 2, 4, 5

Race 8: The Battle of the Brandywine 3YO Open Consolation for $200,000 features (1) Real Special coming off a lackluster fifth on a sloppy track at Chester on Aug. 14. The 5-2 morning line favorite paced a lifetime best 1:50.2 as recently as July 16 and his last four speed ratings have been 97 or above.

(2) Dana's Sharp Smart has been a model of consistency this season, winning six of 14 races (two places; two shows) and pretty much pacing in 1:51 or 1:52 each time out.

(5) Shadyshark Hanover has only two wins in nine tries on the campaign, but one of those wins was a remarkable 1:47.4 in the Oliver Wendell Holmes on Aug. 6 at the Big M. The colt (Cam's Card Shark-Shady Past-No Nukes) went off in that race at 21-1 and still can't get any love. He's at 10-1 in the morning line after coming back down to earth to finish fourth in a New Jersey Sire Stakes race on Aug. 13 in 1:51.2. Should figure here.

(6) Mystic Desire is a question mark after a disappointing fourth in a Confederation Cup elimination last Sunday at Flamboro Downs. But the colt regularly paces in 1:50 and change and has won 11 of 19 lifetime races. Worth a look here.

Bet: 1, 5, 6

Race 9: The Valley Forge Final for 3YO (pacing) Fillies features a purse of $350,000 and the hottest horse on the planet: (2) See You At Peelers has won 21 of 21 races. In eight wins this season, she has only seen the rear end of one horse and that only for a brief moment when Idyllic passed her at the mid-way point of a New York Sire Stakes race on July 28 before giving way on the backstretch at Yonkers. Otherwise, it's all 1s on her dance card.

Two other pacers have faster season best times: (1) Krispy Apple and (4) Drop the Ball have won in 1:49.1 to Peelers' best 1:49.2. But how can you bet against perfection?

Bet: 2

Race 10: A cool half a million is on the line in the Colonial 3YO Open (trot) Final. (2) Dejarmbro gets the morning line nod at 5-2. He's no See You At Peelers, but the colt has won 15 of 20 starts including six of his last seven.

(1) Manofmanymissions beat Broad Bahn and Dejarmbro in the Stanley Dancer. Impressive. And good enough to make him the second favorite at 7-2.

But where is the love for Hambo winner (5) Broad Bahn? He's the morning line third pick at 9-2 despite going wire-to-wire and winning the $1.5 million Hambletonian by three-and-a-half lengths.

Told you we had our work cut out for us! These are some very special horses.

Bet: 1, 5

Harrah's Chester Pick 4, Sunday, August 7

2011-08-07T08:53:00.000-07:00

Harrah's Chester Pick 4, Races 7 - 10, Sunday, Aug. 7, 2011

Last Sunday was a historic day for the Amateur Handicapper, an almost all chalk Pick 4 that paid a respectable $151.60. Let's see if we can keep the momentum rolling.

$1 play: 4/57/1357/356 = $24

Analysis:

Race 7: The opening race features (4) Zander Massimo, a 5YO bay gelding have the season of a lifetime. In only his second year of pacing the late bloomer has finished in the money 20 out of 27 tries including 7 wins and career-best 1:50.2. Driver change from George Neopolitano to George Brennan shouldn't be a problem. Only the 7-2 second favorite here behind (6) Cyclone Cully N at 5-2, but sure looks like a great opportunity for us to single.

Bet: 4

Race 8: (5) Bluehurst righted the ship last week (and was a part of our Pick 4) with a narrow win over Fancy Free Shark but a quarter of a length. The win followed two dismal eighth place finishes and suggested that a couple of his wins back in June weren't flukes. (6) Yuma Hanover has had a rocky patch of his own, finishing his last two races in ninth and seventh, respectively. He hasn't won a race since July 2 in 1:52.1. (7) Three New Dawns has been outstanding all season (finishing in the money at a 50 percent clip) and has shown the speed (a win on June 21 in 1:49.4) not only to compete with Bluehurst but to win.

Bet: 5, 7

Race 9: This is a terrific race with a loaded field pacing for $36,500 in purse money. (7) Rockincam has won three of five races including three in a row. The 4YO horse was only 8-1 in the morning line most likely because of his post position. Speed ratings consistently in the mid-90s. (1) Vertical Horizon is the favorite here and why not? Ten times in the money in 18 races for $100,000 in winnings for a field-best average of $11,700. He's also the only pacer in the field with a sub-1:50 mile to his credit. (2) Hypnotist has had great success this year and it's a testament to the strength of this field that he's only 5-1. Hasn't found the winner's circle since July 1, when he did so in 1:50.2, a time that would make him competitive here. (3) Mainland Key N has stuck around in all his recent races but hasn't won since June 26. Was beaten last time out by Delmarvalous, so no shame there. (5) P H Jackpot has won his last two races handily but we can't compare times because he's done so at a mile and a sixteenth! Suffice to say his 106 speed rating on July 23 make him a must-play here.

Bet: 1, 3, 5, 7

Race 10: (3) Shark's Legacy has been always a bridesmaid, rarely a bride this year. He hasn't won since April and that in an easy 1:53.4. He's paced at a faster rate all season long and finished his last three in place. The favorite here. (6) MC Rusty has been the horse Shark's Legacy would like to be, winning four of his six races in 2011, including a lifetime best 1:51.2 back on June 21. The outside post poses a mild imposition. (8) Hone the Razor is a solid 3YO but should be just a fraction behind the winners here. (5) Dana's Sharp Smart was a house afire earlier this year but hasn't been his best of late. Still, his 1:51 season best should put him right in the mix.

Bet: 3, 5, 6

Tioga Downs Pick 4, Aug. 1, 2011

2011-08-01T07:04:00.000-07:00

Tioga Downs Pick 4, Races 2 - 5, Monday, Aug. 1, 2011

Jump on board, people, there's plenty of room on the bandwagon! We finally hit a Pick 4 yesterday at Chester for a mildly exciting $151.60. Not too shabby for a Holiday Inn, as the saying goes. Handicapped most of the races well, including two exactas and a trifecta if one was inclined to bet all the horses I had on my card.

Onward!

$1 play 2/210/346/45910 = $24

Analysis:

Race 2: Today is an exciting day at Tioga Downs, what with its hosting of the World Driver's Championship. Corey Callahan is representing the U.S. of A and his bay mare, (2) Curly Top is the morning line favorite here at 3-1. Notwithstanding a break in her last outing, she's been consistently a second or two faster than the rest, albeit in a bunch of fifths and eighths and also rans.

The early speed in this trot is on the outside, which does not bode well for the (9) and (10) horses, who will have to make up a lot of ground and likely be parked at least one wide doing it.

Bjorn Goop will drive (1) Polar Rail and should be there at the end.

Bet: 2

Race 3: (2) Prince Polaris has had the most and best success in this field, at least of late. Two of four victories in a month including a lifetime best 1:53.3 on June 5 though at a lower class. (4) Whole Lotta Wow is the fastest pacer in the group on a good day, but the 6YO gelding hasn't had a good day (a win, that is) since the winter and only 1 in 20 starts this year. Capable? Yes. Likely, not so much. (10) Savannah Scion would easily be the favorite here were it not for the disadvantageous post. Last three outings were show, place and win (respectively) all in under 1:55. Can't leave him off the ticket.

Bet: 2, 10

Race 4: (3) Smooth Power was lights out (seven straight races in the money including four victories) until three bumpy outings in June and July. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the break on June 1 was a fluke and that the lackluster return on June 29 was on account of nearly a month off. His July 9 win at Tioga was more like it, never mind the glacial pace of 1:57 flat. He prepped for this race at the Big M by turning in a 1:54.3 and closing to sixth.

(4) Karpathos jumps from $5,500 to $10,000 here after winning six of nine races including his last two in 1:56.3 and 1:56.4. Not in the same class as Smooth Power but racing well lately and should challenge. (6) Double A Gloria is a lot like Karpathos, a trotter who has had recent success at lower class ($3,465) now making the jump to $10,000. First try at $10,000 was a successful show finish in 1:55.3. She seems, however, as happy to finish third or fourth as she is to finish first. Are her two recent wins a trend or an aberration? (7) Three straight for Prize Angie but this is one wildly inconsistent trotter. She has speed ratings of 18 and 23 in her not-too-distant past to go along with a 78 and an 86.

Bet: 3, 4, 6

Race 5: (9) True Desire has a tough post but drops the furthest in class here from $27,000 to $10,000. The 7YO gelding hasn't won since mid-June and that in 2:01.4. Simply unimpressive of late. (10) I'm in Luck will need plenty of it if he's to pull out a win here. Three of last four have been in the money and sub-1:55 including an awesome six-length win in 1:52.3 on July 2. (8) A Rockin Hanover has a win in 1:51.3 this season but lately has been mediocre. Will need to be at his best to hang around. Don't really like the (4) Major Work of Art or the (5) Kiss My Cam but do love their post positions.

Bet: 4, 5, 9, 10

Harrah's Chester Pick 4, Sunday, July 31

2011-07-31T07:18:00.000-07:00

Harrah's Chester Pick 4, Races 7 - 10, Sunday, July 31, 2011

Last week was all chalk and we hit three of four races. Should have picked the fourth by adding one more chalker, We Will See in the $70,000 Open Handicap. Had we done that, we would have come home with $54.20 on a $2 bet. As the gambling gods say, It beats losing.

$1 play: 1/3568/145/13 = $24

Analysis:

Race 7: Hard to imagine a scenario where (1) Ideal Matters isn't at the top of the board in this $30,000 race for NW of $25,000 in five races. Then again, Ideal Matters is in eenie meenie miney moe mode of late. In his last four race the 4YO (Western Ideal-Art Matters-Arts Place) has finished seventh, first, seventh and third. Which horse will show up today? The seventh place finish on July 3 is understandable if only because Ideal Matters paced a sub-1:50 in the final of the Franklin Pace. He dominated at this class on July 16 before poking his head up in a $70,000 race where he was promptly whacked again.

(7) Hypnotist is the best of the rest though he suffers from a difficult post. (3) Touch the Rock is off form of late (his last two a seventh and an eighth place finish).

Let's single Ideal Matters.

Race 8: This one makes it interesting. A 2YO maiden race for colts and geldings, Pa sire "preferred." (8) All Week is the prohibitive favorite at 5-2 but heaven only knows how the colt (I Am a Fool-Delta Shuttle-Cam's Card Shark) will perform from such a disadvantageous post.

(3) Hillbilly Hanover is a must play and (5) D Mac has improved in every race he's been in this year. (6) Jedi Hanover may have the force with him, too.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if the winner of this race shaves three, four or even five seconds off his lifetime best.

Bet: 3, 5, 6, 8

Race 9: (1) Western Shore has a lot bests in race stats going for him: best lifetime mark: 1:48.3; best season mark: 1:49; most lifetime earnings: $1.1 million. And he's the 5-2 morning line favorite.

(6) New Release was next to unbeatable April through June but has run into difficulties at this high class ($36,500 up from $24,000). (2) Schoolkids has been wildly inconsistent of late but certainly has the capability of a winning effort. Ditto (4) Cinderella Guy, who has been more stout more recently than Schoolkids. (5) Dial or No Dial has won twice at this level before being beaten up at higher classes.

Bet: 1, 4, 5

Race 10: (3) Bluehurst benefits from a benign post but has been awful of late: A pair of eighth place finishes including a break in his last. Should rebound here but too risky to single. (1) Western Posse is coming off a place last week and should get a clean trip here. The most lightly paced horse in the field.

Bet: 1, 3

Harrah's Chester, Pick 4, Sunday, July 24

2011-07-22T12:17:00.000-07:00

Harrah's Chester, Pick 4, Races 7 - 10, Sunday, July 24, 2011

The Sunday Pick 4 at Chester is guaranteed for $7,500, a bump up from from the standard $5,000 guarantee for the rest of their cards.

Bet: $1 on 1248/1/25/7 = $8

Analysis:

Race 7: (1) Forever Good was very good in 2010, finishing in the money in 21 of his 36 races and earning more than $46,000. But the 7YO has only won two races and placed once in 23 starts in 2011, his last win coming in a $10,500 race at Chester on May 27. He was recently purchased, however, by Chasing Paper out of Delaware and is being trained by Joseph Skowyra. He picks up a new driver, Corey Callahan, one of Chester's best. Will the changes do Forever Good any good? His first race for Chasing Paper was a fifth place finish two lengths back after a rough trip during which he was parked for nearly half the race. He did win in 1:52 at Dover Downs, which is perhaps reason for optimism.

(4) Zander Massimo is the morning line favorite at 5-2 coming off an impressive win over Native Art on July 17 in 1:52.4. Zander Massimo is having the kind of year in 2011 that Forever Good had in 2010 -- that is, he's finished in the money 18 of 25 races for more than $75,000. He's won twice in his last four and has been a model of consistency, crossing the wire in five consecutive races in under 1:53.

(3) Native Art has played the role of bridesmaid often this year but has found the winner's circle but once in 10 tries, and that in a leisurely 1:53.2 (speed rating of 85) on May 17. The 5YO bay gelding was nearly three lengths inferior to Zander Massimo last week.

(2) Dream Possession is steady as he goes. As a 10YO, he finished in the money half of his 20 starts, which include back-to-back wins at Chester in times of 1:52.4 and 1:53.

Zander Massimo should provide the early speed and dictate the terms of the race. His top competition much prefers to stalk.

(8) Isaac Newton has been a mediocre pacer of late but he's proven this year to be every bit the horse as any one else in the field judging by his 1:51.3 win at Chester on June 10.

A difficult race to handicap.

Bet: 1, 2, 4, 8

Race 8: (1) One More Laugh was a top 3YO and has won more than $2.2 million over two-plus campaigns. This year, then, must be a disappointment to his owners at the Creative Racing Stable: Only one win in 11 tries for paltry $77,000. No wonder the gelding is on his fourth driver of the season, David Miller. His best winning time this year is nearly four full seconds off his Big M best last year of 1:47.4.

(2) Blueridge Western is a first-rate second tier pacer who would have been no match for One More Laugh in 2011 despite 10 wins in 43 tries. This year, however, the 6YO gelding has paced consistently at 1:50 and 1:51, which puts him in good company with One More Laugh.

(3) Stonebridge Wish is another first-rate second tier pacer. The 8YO has finally figured something out. In 2010 he set a lifetime winning best of 1:49.4 and this year he's already won three more total races and more than $30,000 in purse money.

Look for One More Laugh to reassert himself and reclaim some of the glory of last year.

Bet: 1

Race 9: (5) Nova Artist is dropping considerably in class (from $32,500 most of the season to $12,000 this week) and should perform well here as he appears to be rounding into shape. He began the season a house on fire, winning four times by late February including a season best 1:50.3 at Dover Downs on Feb. 21. He took the month of May off and his return has been gradual to say the least. But he's demonstrated improvement in July, ticking off lower times each race: 1:56.2, 1:52.2 and 1:51.1. He's the morning line favorite at 5-2.

If Nova Artist isn't yet all the way back, look for (2) Shakearosa to compete. However, Shakearosa is in a slump of his own. He hasn't finished in the money since May 29. He, too, is dropping in class, but only from $21,000 and $16,000.

Bet: 5, 2

Race 10: This race is an Open Handicap for $70,000 and all the best pacers have drawn outside posts. Interesting.

(7) Won the West is not even the favorite despite his back-to-back Breeders Crown wins in the Open Paces of 2009 and 2010 and, more recently, his blazing Gold Cup victory in 1:47.2 back on June 18. His last four speed ratings are 103, 104, 106, 104. Wow!

No, the favored status (at least in the morning line) goes to We Will See, a 4YO on a very impressive roll of late: He's been driven by Ron Pierce to three wins and two places in his last five races, all sub-1:50s.

This should be a dramatic showdown.

Bet maturity over youth: 7.

The Meadowlands Pace

2011-07-16T10:56:00.001-07:00

A cool million is on the line tonight at the Big M in the Meadowlands Pace.

The big surprise before the race begins is the absence of Up the Credit, whose lackluster elimination left him on the outside looking in. Up the Credit raced at the back of the field and fired down the backstretch in an attempt to gain one of the top five spots. He came up just short and finished sixth.

The field for this year's Pace has not covered itself in glory, at least not yet. Last year the three eliminations went in 1:48.4, 1:47.4 and 1:47.3. No pacer in the two eliminations last week was able to break 1:50.

Nevertheless, this should be a highly competitive and entertaining pace for $1 million.

(2) Big Jim, the morning line favorite at 2-1, is undefeated in three starts this year at the Big M. He won his elimination last week by staving off a challenge down the stretch from Powerful Mist, but his previous three races has were disappointments including a show in the NA Cup at Mohawk and a place in the Somebeachsomewhere to Up the Credit. (In fairness, the loss to Up the Credit still garnered a 100 speed rating for the colt.)

(3) Custard the Dragon may well be the hottest 3YO of the moment. He won the Hoosier Cup on June 11 in a 1:50 flat that featured an impressive :26.4 final quarter and a move from third at the half to the lead and the win. He took the early lead in his elimination last week and then toyed with the field, dispatching ForeclosureN down the stretch with a little kick at the wire that suggested the horse had much more to give.

(5) Wink N Atcha is the proverbial bridesmaid, never (or at least rarely) a bride. The best the colt has managed of late is a pair of show finishes behind Custard the Dragon.

George Teague Jr. has three pacers in the field bunched at post positions 3, 4 and 5. Should be interesting to see what sort of strategy the trainer employs. Of course, Custard the Dragon shouldn't need much help: He has tremendous early speed. The danger here is that he'll spend too much energy securing the right to pace from the front of the field.

On paper, this should be an easy race to handicap. Big Jim and Custard the Dragon should take command early and battle it out late. It'll be interesting to see which driver wants to dictate and which tucks into the pocket.

But they don't pace on paper. (9) Bestofbest Hanover beat Custard the Dragon on June 18 in 1:49.1, the fastest any of these 3YOs has gone this season. (8) Roll With Joe won the Somebeach at Mohawk in 1:49.3, albeit from the (1) post. (7) Betterthancheddar has also won at Mohawk in 1:49.2.

So, no outcome should surprise.

But the Amateur Handicapper figures to get nice odds on Custard the Dragon and is going to bet him $20 to win.

Good luck at the windows!

Stanley Dancer @ The Big M

2011-07-15T15:22:00.000-07:00

Here's a question that's been bugging the Amateur Handicapper for awhile now, brought into focus by the draw for tomorrow night's Million Dollar Pace at the Big M: Why, when the 5 post has been the most productive of the season (14.6 percent of the winners have come from it) by more than 2 percentage points, would the two pacers who got to pick their post choose the 2 post (Big Jim) and the 3 post (Custard the Dragon)? Naturally, when it comes to racing luck, more bad things can happen from the 5 than either the 2 or the 3. Still, that 14.6 winning percentage is intriguing. Just sayin'.

Before the Amateur Handicapper looks at the Meadowlands Pace, let's first break a sweat with the Stanley Dancer Open for 3YOs.

The sixth race on Saturday's card shapes up to be a wild one. (5) Dejarmbro draws that lucky post and gets some early line loving at 5-2. A favorable post notwithstanding, all this colt has done is win 13 of 17 lifetime starts including his last four in dynamite fashion. (His last time out he won going away by five lengths and two trips back he clocked a 100 speed rating! Huzzah!)

But Dejarmbro should have all he can handle with (8) Pastor Stephen (winner of 9 out of 16 lifetime) and (2) Broad Bahn (winner of 6 out of 14). Of course, Pastor Stephen will have to improve on his best ever winning time by a second and Broad Bahn by two seconds if either is to compete with Dejarmbro at his best.

(4) Charlie De Vie is the best of the rest but will have to leap forward in form. His race on June 18 featured a disastrous break while in the lead and a 23-length loss in seventh place. Even his win on July 1 was in a lethargic 1:54.2 and a modest speed rating of 87.

Can't see how Dejarmbro loses (of course, it's easy to say that before the race goes off!) but wonder about getting fair odds. If the colt is no worse than 2-1 the Amateur Handicapper is going to bet $20 on him to win.

Good luck at the windows!

Guaranteed $20,000 Superfecta @ Hoosier Park

2011-06-24T10:03:00.000-07:00

Hoosier Park Superfecta, Race 12, Saturday, June 25, 2011

We had three of the four winners in the Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on June 15 including a trifecta in the first leg that paid a paltry $14.50. (Hey, it beats losing.) The Pick 4, on the other hand, paid a princely $285.70. Ouch.

On Saturday, Hoosier Park will host a series of Indiana Sire stake races as well as the $500,000 Hoosier Cup, which features a $20,000 guaranteed superfecta pool in the 12th.

Bet: $.50 superfecta key: 6 over 3 over 1289 = $6
$.50 superfecta key: 3 over 6 over 1289 = $6

Analysis:

Race 12: Some of the 3YO colts and geldings in this pace will be familiar to handicappers of the Pepsi North America Cup won by Up the Credit with Jody Jamieson in the sulky and the NA Cup consolation won last week by Bestofbest Hanover.

In the Cup, (6) Big Bad John faded to fifth after passing the three quarter pole in first place. He finished in 1:50 flat and is the favorite here at 3-1. His best winning time in his two-year career is 1:50.2. The colt has won seven of nine lifetime.

In one of those go figure moments in harness racing -- and the sport is simply full to bursting with them -- the Cup consolation was won by Bestofbest Hanover in a blazing 1:49.1, a full two-fifths of a second better than the winner of the NA Cup!

That means (3) Custard the Dragon's 1:49.3 was good enough only for show in the consolation! The colt attempted a wire-to-wire but faltered ever so slightly down the stretch and finished behind Bestofbest Hanover and Mystician. No shame in that race, especially since Custard the Dragon has proven in the past two years his will and desire, winning five of his 11 lifetime races.

Custard the Dragon has mondo early speed and should set the tempo here. The six hole should not prove any sort of impediment for Big Bad John, especially not with Hoosier Park's long back stretch that makes it possible to win from almost any post.

The pacer who really caught my eye at the NA Cup was (8) Wink N Atcha, who charged from 16 lengths back at the half to finish fourth only two-and-half lengths out. The colt's final quarter was an awe-inspiring :25.4. What we'll have to see on Saturday is whether that fraction suggests success with a better trip or perhaps a dull effort after such an extreme expenditure of energy.

(9) Wind Me Up certainly belongs in this elite company though his post position is one of only two at Hoosier Park that places the standarbreds at a meaningful statistical disadvantage. (The other is the 11 post.) Still, not an impossible task for Wind Me Up, especially given the colt's ability to roar immediately from outside posts to the lead, something he's done in four of his last five races.

Trainer George Teague Jr. is sending four out for the Hoosier Cup: Custard the Dragon, Feel Like a Fool, Wink N Atcha and Wind Me Up.

Back to the library and "The Stretch Run"

2011-06-16T14:10:00.000-07:00

There is so much to say about Raymond DeCapite's The Stretch Run, a terrific novel set in Cleveland during or just after the Vietnam War and featuring a young out-of-work magazine writer who befriends an elderly gambler who has lost his son to the war. A few posts back the Amateur Handicapper quoted a lengthy passage from the novel in which the professional handicapper (Jim Stacy) instructs the novitiate (Frank Bondi) in the finer points of his trade.

When Frank praises Jim for his calm in the face of a disastrous bet, Jim tells him, simply, "I've had plenty of practice."

In a subsequent chapter, Frank goes it alone at Thistledown* in Cleveland and demonstrates the dangers of handicapping without first learning how.

"I was not happy with the horses. I bet and lost the daily double, the quinella in the second, the trifecta in the third. The fourth was a maiden race for two-year-old fillies, three of which had never raced, and so I decided to skip it.

Gold Nugget won by ten lengths.

Impressed, I took another look at her in the Form.

Jim came.

'Well, I started fast,' he said, sitting down.

'You had that horse?'

'Yes. I got here a minute before post. I can't remember the last time I won a bet on a two-year-old making her debut.'

'She was the life of the party.'

'I had a feeling she would be.'

'I don't see anything special in the Form. What did you see in her?'

'She's by Prospector. He was a fast colt. I bet him twice and won both times.'

'So now you bet his daughter. Sometimes we listen when the heart speaks.'

'Did you miss her bullet work? It's in the program. She breezed a half in forty-eight.'

'The heart needs encouragement.'

He studied the fifth race.

'Five minutes to post,' said the race caller. 'Don't get shut out.'

'Are you going to bet?' said Jim.

'Yes. Do you like Varsity at all?'

"Bet ten to win for me on Tall Tale. Put him in an exacta box with Varsity.'

'Why do you prefer Tall Tale?'

'He's a sure thing.'

'That's pretty tall. But I'll invest sixteen.'

Tall Tale won, Varsity ran third.

I won twenty-nine.

'Didn't I tell you he was a sure thing?' he said.

'I'll believe you next time.'

'I might be wrong next time.'

He was wrong in the next four races."

* Of the making of books about thoroughbreds, to paraphrase Ecclesiastes, there is no end. But books about standardbreds, about pacers and trotters, the same is not true. I'm dedicated to finding the best writing about our great sport, but it may take awhile. Until then, great writing about handicapping, even thoroughbred handicapping, will have to suffice!

Hoosier Park Pick 4, June 15

2011-06-15T09:26:00.000-07:00

Hoosier Park Pick 4, Race 3-6, Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Last week we picked two winners (including our lone single) but never had a shot at the Pick 4 as a long shot hit in the first race. Of the two winners, Mark's Way was our no-brainer single and he paid $3.20 to win if you had him on a ticket separate from the Pick 4. We also nailed the sixth and final race in the Pick 4, betting that Eagle Flight would soar. The pacer paid $8.80 to win. Let's see if we can hone our game a bit this time around.

$1 play: = 348/7/4689/1910 = $36

Analysis:

Race 3: (4) Perfectly Royal has a significant class advantage over the field here and is the morning line place bet at 3-1. The bay mare is coming off two wins at Scioto Downs but was scratched from what would have been her first race at Hoosier Park on June 7. So, questions abound. (3) Just a Glimpse won $37,500 in a show finish at the Kentucky Sire Stakes for 2YOs last September at Lexington. But she's a maiden with only three lifetime starts. Not much of a track record to base a wager on. (8) Shez All Halo is like the little girl who, when she's good, is very very good (a win and a place in three starts) but when she's bad, she's very very bad (a late break and a 10-length loss).

None of the favorites are proven enough or consistent enough (yet) to put out there as a single.

Bet: 3, 4, 8

Race 4: (7) Pure Super is coming off a $45,600 stakes race in which she finished a respectable fourth, having come from well off the pace and being parked on the backside. She won 7 of 14 races as a 2YO and placed in three others. She's is the class of this $5,500 race. (2) Bar Girl is the best of the rest.

Bet: 7

Race 5: There are five legitimate contenders in this $11,500 pace. (4) Ar Ed is coming off back-to-back wins and four solid outings in a row dating back to May 11. (9) Bull Lea has a last three average speed rating higher than today's class rating. (Not to mention the gelding's eight wins and a four places in 14 races this year!) (8) Stamped By Design is trained by Trace Tetrick and has an intriguing 1:53.2 win to his name at Balmoral Park this year. He was third to Ar Ed and Bull Lea last time out after making a heroic charge from 13 lengths off the lead to finish a length and a half back. With any racing luck, he should be in the mix again. (6) Tugboat won on May 25 in a season's best 1:52.4 but has also been awful lately in finishing three of his last four in ninth, tenth and eighth. Which Tugboat will show up tonight? (5) Really Showing Off is also capable, entering the race off back-to-back wins in lower classes. Can he continue to climb? His most recent speed ratings suggest this might be the gelding's class too far.

Bet: 4, 6, 8, 9

Race 6: (10) B Strike Three would is our favorite to win this $17,000 trot. He has the highest winning percentage of any trotter in the field and season and lifetime best times significantly better than any of his race mates. Just to give you an example, our second choice, (9) Jeffie T has a season best 1:58.3. B Strike Three has raced in 1:55.1, albeit at Dover Downs. B Strike Three would have won for the first time this year at Hoosier Park were it not for an unfortunate break down the homestretch and a DQ from first to seventh. Despite that recent mishap, B Strike Three is considered a "low" risk of going off stride. There is no true speed in this race, so both B Strike Three and Jeffie T should be able to settle behind and in front of the trotters of their choosing. Watch for a fast and furious finish, as Jeffie T has an insane closing speed rating of 99! Will B Strike Three have enough of a cushion to withstand Jeffie T's late charge down Hoosier Park's endless home stretch? We'll see. (1) D W's Perky Joe has been fair to midland the last two and half months but his early season victories and steady trotting should stand him in good stead here.

Bet: 1, 9, 10

North America Cup Eliminations @ Mohawk

2011-06-11T13:40:00.000-07:00

Mohawk Racetrack will host the North America Cup Eliminations tonight in races 3, 4 and 6. The purses are $50,000.

In Race 3, (3) Big Jim in the prohibitive 1-2 favorite in a field of seven pacers. All the bay colt has done is win 8 time in 13 starts and place or show in four of his other five outings. He has a lifetime best of 1:49.1 (at Woodbine) and a season best of 1:51 flat (at the Big M). (2) Rock to Glory is a very nice gelding by Rocknroll Hanover out of Faded Glory. He's won two of his last three (a lifetime best 1:50.1 on May 9) but finished third last week to Big Jim by five lengths. The three hole is a tough one at Woodbine (8.3 winning percentage) but shouldn't pose that much of a problem for Big Jim. (4) Powerful Mist finished third last week behind Big Jim and Up the Credit and ahead of Rock to Glory. (7) Custard the Dragon has won five of nine lifetime but of late has shown a disconcerting inability to stay on stride. He roared from the nine hole on May 21 in the Hempt Final at Pocono Downs and won going away in 1:50.2 But he's broken stride in two of his last four races.

Big Jim should win.

The Amateur Handicapper is boxing a $5 exacta with the 2 and 3.

And he's putting Big Jim on top of a $1 trifecta wheel 3 with the 2, 4 and 7.

Total: $16

Race 4 at Mohawk features two horses almost certain to be competing in the finals: (2) Betterthancheddar and (3) Up the Credit. The former is 2-1 in the morning line and the latter is 8-5. Up the Credit had an amazing race in the Somebeachsomewhere, hanging off the pace and 11 lengths back before making a fabulous move in the second half all the way into first place in 1:49. His final fraction was a blazing :26 seconds. Wow! Have to wonder how much that race took out of the colt and whether or not he'll be quite as strong this week. Betterthancheddar didn't race as a 2YO but has won two of his four races in 2011. The last two times out the colt has raced in under 1:50. Just wish he had more of a track record.

If the top pacers in this most hotly contested elimination decide to rip off another sub-1:50 then the Amateur Handicapper sees the 2 and 3 in win and place. The rest of the field will need a slightly slower race, say, 1:51 or 1:52 to get into the mix.

$5 exacta box, 2, 3.

$2 trifeca 2/3/1

Total bet: $7

The final elimination, Race 7, features two lightly races (thus far) undefeated pacers: (2) Roll With Joe and (7) Big Bad John. The latter has won a remarkable 10 of 12 and placed in both his non-wins. Wow. No wonder the bay colt, lifetime best 1:50.2, is the 4-5 favorite in the morning line. And, really, no horse has even come close during his seven consecutive wins dating back to Oct. 16 of 2010.

Three other horses in the field won races last week: (1) Mystician in the Upper Canada by nearly seven lengths; (4) Western Alumni in an $18,000 condition race; and, (5) Dutch Richman in the Cardinal at Balmoral.

$5 exacta box 2, 7

$1 trifecta 7 and 2 over the 1, 4 and 5
$1 trifecta 2 and 7 over the 1, 4 and 5

Good luck at the windows!

The Amateur Handicapper goes to the library ...

2011-06-10T11:22:00.001-07:00

The Amateur Handicapper has been at the library lately and discovered a gem of a short novel by Cleveland writer Raymond DeCapite called The Stretch Run. The Amateur Handicapper identified with the narrator, Frank Bondi, a Southsider from Cleveland's Industrial Valley who has recently lost his job working for a shipping news magazine.

With time on his hands, Frank wanders into a card game where he meets a widower and professional gambler named Jim Stacy. Frank later drops by the track, Thistledown, where he encounters Jim again and plies him for his handicapping expertise. Jim is reluctant. His son was killed in Vietnam, his wife has died. He prefers, he thinks, solitude. But Frank ingratiates himself into Jim's company and both find a modicum of happiness, however fleeting.

The scene when the two meet unexpectedly at Thistledown is direct and powerful:

"Jim was sitting on a bench.
He was reading the Racing Form.
'I call,' I said.
He glanced up at me.
I was interrupting.
'Mind if I sit down?' I said.
He waved to the other benches, to the wide world.
'I'd rather sit with you,' I said. 'I have so many questions to ask. About the horses, about life.'
His look made it plain he had no time for comedy.
I sat so that there was room between us for two jockeys.
I opened my Form to the fifth race.
'Have you had any winners?' I said.
He shook his head.
'I'm not a good handicapper,' I said. 'But I'm learning. I learn something every time I come out here.'
'So do I.'
He was wearing charcoal-brown slacks, a white shirt with short sleeves, brown socks, brown loafers with tassels. He was just about my size, average height, average weight, with no soft place on his body.
The horses were coming out on the track.
Candy, Jim? I imagined myself saying.
Never.
'You were watching from the fence there,' I said. 'At the furlong pole.'
'When?'
'A week ago Saturday. Black Pepper was leading by eight lengths at the far turn.'
'At least eight.'
'I couldn't believe it when he got caught. You dropped your mutuel ticket on the way out. You'd bet thirty to win on the horse.'
'Thanks for bringing it all back to me.'
'Your face never changed. If I blew thirty like that, if I got beat in the last stride of a race at a mile-and-a-sixteenth, I'd make a spectacle of myself out here. You're a good loser.'
'I've had plenty of practice.'

More of Jim Stacy's wisdom in future posts. In the meantime, I'm off to Scioto Downs to look for an elderly gentleman upon whose knee I can learn the finer points of handicapping and, perhaps more importantly, of losing gracefully.

The Stretch Run was published in 1996 by Sparkle Street Books with another of DeCapite's Cleveland novels, Go Very Highly Trippingly To and Fro.

Hoosier Park Pick 4, June 8

2011-06-08T09:01:00.000-07:00

Hoosier Park Pick 4, Race 3-6, Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Took the week off from Pick 4 handicapping and move this week from Cal Expo to Hoosier Park. Important to remember that Hoosier Park has a monster home stretch that is more than 1,200-feet long. That means the number 8 post wins more often than the number 1 post and that the first eight post positions have a legitimate and nearly equal shot at winning.

$1 play: 58/5/13/16 = $8

Analysis:

Race 3: (8) Lastcallforalcohol won on May 12 by nearly two lengths in a $15,000 pace and is dropping here to $6,500. (9) Pin Stripes is intriguing but is too lightly raced in 2011 to get much of a read on. The 4YO horse ships in from Scioto Downs. (6) Hillcrest Domingo is coming off three stout efforts in a row including a victory on June 2 in 1:56.2 The roan gelding will have to improve on that time to compete here. (2) Make You Famous should be at or near the lead but finishing will be difficult. (5) Hi Hopes Cruiser is the class of the field but has only raced four times this year and has yet to hit the winner's circle.

Bet: 5, 8

Race 4: (5) Mark's Way won the last time out in 1:54.3 Not too shabby for a Holiday Inn, as the saying goes. (2) Stone Appeal won, too, but in a less illustrious 1:56 flat. After failing to win in 10 races last year, Mark's Way appears to have figured things out this season.

Bet: 5

Race 5: This is a wide open pace for a purse of $20,000. (1) Rocket Fuel is years beyond his lifetime best of 1:50.1 but the grey gelding still figures here. His last three speed ratings (including a 100!) averaged greater than the race's class rating (95). An also-ran in 2011, today looks promising. (2) Perrito Caliente was not hot in his last two races but did win on May 11 in a workmanlike 1:52.3. If stalkers fair well in the opening two races, a flyer may be warranted on (3) Chief Silverheels, who paced final quarters of 26.4 and 27 in his most recent two wins.

Bet: 1, 3

Race 6: Another interesting pace, this time a $19,500 claimer. (1) Eagle Flight had the best speed rating in the field his last time out (81) and an even more impressive rating (95) two races back, winning in 1:51.2. If the 7YO horse paces that quickly here he should win. (5) Private Room was scratched by the judges on May 19 and was lackluster in his return on June 1. (6) Got 'Er Done is a stalker but very inconsistent. In his last two wins he paced final quarters of 28.3 and 26.4.

Bet: 1, 6

Cal Expo Pick 4, May 26

2011-05-25T10:28:00.000-07:00

Cal Expo Pick 4, Race 6-9, Thursday, May 26, 2011

Hit the first two legs of the Pick 4 last week and got all excited. For nothing, it turned out. In Race 8 we acknowledged that Miss In Love would provide the early speed and contend down the stretch but then cavalierly predicted she would fade (again), allowing room for Mr Friendly to win it all. We singled Mr Friendly. What we didn't count on was our lone single of the evening breaking early and then packing it in before the race ended. No mas, indeed! Oh well, live and learn. In the final leg of the Pick 4 we (along with the rest of the betting world!) dismissed Bahama Bay Bea out of hand. Our picks finished second and third, with Code Blue missing out to Bahama Bay Bea by a nose. Had we not singled Mr Friendly in the previous race, the finish in the ninth would surely have sent the Amateur Handicapper into a Code Blue of his own.

$1 play: 3/4678/3456/24 = $32

Analysis:

Race 6: Never say never in this handicapping game, but I honestly couldn't have imagined singling a horse in a $2,400 maiden race. (Well, it's not technically a maiden since one of the conditions is one lifetime win.)

(3) Sun on the Rocks is coming so far down in class and has paced so much faster than her competition that she is understandably the 3-5 morning line favorite. The average of her last three speed ratings is greater than today's class rating. Last week's driver change to Scott Cisco provided immediate benefits and a second place finish, a good prep.

Bet: 3

Race 7: (8) Got the Giggles would be the favorite in this race had she not drawn the unenviable post eight, the toughest to win from at Cal Expo by a wide margin. Will her blazing early speed help her to overcome the (bad) luck of the draw? (4) Sleigh Belle is easily the hottest pacer in the field having won three of four including a lifetime best 1:56.2 on May 5. She's a stalker and may well let Got the Giggles burn herself out getting to the lead. Sleigh Belle's problem may be the abundance here of early speed. She may have to pass three or four horses in order to earn the win. Of course, that same caveat applies to Got the Giggles, who could easily find herself parked two or three wide. This is a tough one to call. Since we were able to single the sixth, let's toss in four pacers here.

Bet: 4, 6, 7, 8

Race 8: (5) King Carver draws the most benign post at Cal Expo and is the class of the field but my, oh, my, she's prone to go off stride. Trackmaster rates her chances of breaking "high," which means we won't dare put the gelding up as a single. There is no early speed in this race, which means we're probably in for a slow stampede. Let's include all the horses in the field who have broken a 2-minute mile this season.

Bet: 3, 4, 5, 6

Race 9: We liked (2) Dancing Barry and (4) Code Blue last week and we like them again here. (5) Moximum (a winner for us on the 19th) is probably a little out of her league in this group though a strong performance wouldn't shock us.

Bet: 2, 4

Cal Expo Pick 4, May 19

2011-05-18T11:10:00.000-07:00

Cal Expo Pick 4, Race 6-9, Thursday, May 19, 2011

Last week was a difficult one for the Amateur Handicapper, who has joked of late that his Pick 4 selections should be called Pick 2s. Of course, picking two out of four winners wouldn't even count even in horse shoes or hand grenades.

$1 play: 2347/27/1/29=$16

Analysis:

Race 6: What an interesting opener for the Pick 4. This $2,000 claimer boasts three recent winners, all capable of doing damage here: (2) Ailene's Prince, (5) My Tryin Ryan and (7) Franky Provolone. All three did benefit, however, from excellent post positions (1, 5 and 5, respectively). We've talked about the prohibitive advantage standardbreds have from the fifth post at Cal Expo (a 20 percent winning clip).

But what really makes this a tough race to handicap is the number of trotters who finished second either last week -- (1) Mighty Kicker, (3) Bit O Lavec -- or two weeks back -- (4) Hope Tu Place.

Six good, hot horses. But we can't use 'em all.

Notwithstanding his win last week, the company here is probably too stout for My Tryin Ryan, the horse most likely to provide the early speed. We like the the highly rated stalkers: Franky Provolone, Hope Tu Place and Ailene's Prince. Also, Bit O Lavec, who has the best closing speed of the bunch.

Bet: 2, 3, 4, 7

Race 7: (2) Moximum drops down to $2,400 after a series of drubbings in $15,000 sire stakes races. She's the morning line favorite at 6-5. If Moximum isn't poised to rebound from her humbling in the sire stakes, (7) Dragon's Breath should be next in line.

Bet: 2, 7

Race 8: We're tired of waiting for (4) Letter of Intent to declare her intentions. (2) Miss In Love should have little trouble dictating the pace, especially from her inside post. She faded badly in her last trip, however, and is much the lesser horse compared to (1) Mr Friendly. This is our chance for a single.

Bet: 1

Race 9: We'd like (9) Dancing Barry more if the 4YO gelding weren't likely to be slowed at the outset by (1) Bahama Bay Bea, who has two early speeds: slow and stop. (2) Code Blue is the morning line favorite (9-5) and should race to the lead out of the gate. If Code Blue does attempt a wire-to-wire win, Dancing Barry may get a chance to follow her cover.

Bet: 2, 9

Arthur J. Cutler Memorial Final @ The Big M

2011-05-13T10:25:00.000-07:00

You want an impressive prep for a $200,000 race? How about what Looking Hanover did in the Cutler Prep on May 7: a blistering 1:53.2 (lifetime best) which included a furious close from third to first in a final fraction of :26.3. Who says you can't teach an old dog (or a 6YO gelding) new tricks?

Even with that little prep in the books, Looking Hanover (post one, 9-2) is still not the morning line favorite, an honor that goes to Enough Talk (post nine, 3-1). Of course, it's tough to bet against the winner of $1.8 million lifetime, a sturdy 8YO gelding who trotted a 1:51 season's best in 2010. Still, post nine is a steep challenge.

Better situated is Lucky Jim (ten post, 7-2), a disappointing eighth place finisher in the prep after an early break. But look at the gelding's final fraction, a :26.3 to match Looking Hanover. (Lucky Him made up nine lengths in the second half of the race.)

Not at all sure why Buck I St Pat (post six, 5-1) is considered a second tier trotter here. She was working on a string of six straight victories dating back to October's Breeders Crown before faltering in the prep and finishing sixth. Why her sixth was less of an accomplishment than Lucky Jim's eighth, we're not certain.

That being said, let's try not to out-think ourselves. Getting cute is a good way to lose cash in a hurry.

Until proven otherwise, Looking Hanover is the sharpest trotter in the field and deserves our respect.

Bet: $20 to win on Looking Hanover.
Bet: $5 exacta box, Looking Hanover with Buck I St Pat

Good luck at the windows!

Cal Expo Pick 4, May 12

2011-05-11T10:07:00.000-07:00

Race 6

Letter of Intent (5-2), our nemesis in recent weeks, returns in the first leg of the Pick 5 after dropping in class from $2,500 to $1,800 and drawing the enviable 4 post. Her back-to-back second place finishes should turn into a first here, but not without a stern challenge from another mare dropping down in class. Miss In Class (2-1) is making the same drop though will be racing from the difficult 7 post. In her last race, Miss In Class fired out from the 6 hole to the lead and went wire-to-wire. She's capable of the same here.

Bet: 4, 6

Race 7

Paul the Powerful (5-2) should provide the early speed and could go wire-to-wire in this $2,300 pace. He came up just short for us last week after fighting gamely down the stretch to finish third behind Little Box Out (9-2) and Wrangler Reward (5-1). Shoot the Works (2-1) is the prohibitive favorite though the Amateur Handicapper is leaning towards Little Box Out.

Bet: 4, 5

Race 8

Meringue (6-5) is the class of this field but draws the mildly unfavorable six post. Last trip out was uninspiring and in fact this entire season has been a disappointment for the winner of 24 lifetime. Of the also-rans, Say It Best (9-5) is the best (though lightly raced this season) and should benefit from his drop in class two races back. The hottest horse, Bobby Baccala (6-1) had the worst luck at the draw (7) and is coming up the most (from $2,000 to $3,200).

Bet: 2

Race 9

King Carver (8-5) has been perfect in 2011 unless you count his last race, which he won but was DQ'd to place. Let's look for some value here with Badger Creek (5-1), who is coming off a win in 1:59.2 after a string of disasters, and with Midnight Flyer (12-1), who should get a shot from behind the 1 horse.

Bet: 6, 7, 9

Pick 4 ticket: 46/45/2/679 = $12

Cal Expo Pick 4 (May 5, 2011)

2011-05-05T09:05:00.001-07:00

Another day, another $10,000 guaranteed Pick 4 pot out west at Cal Expo.

Race 6

We love an old gray mare though Code Blue (9-2) is, in truth, only a 5YO. Winless this year but with the best also-ran times in this field of non-winners of two. No idea why Dancing Barry is the prohibitive (2-1) favorite. The gelding is winless in 17 tries. Must be memories of past glory. ($60.000 lifetime earnings in 45 starts.) One Night Stand (7-2) is an interesting play. The lightly raced 4YO (3 races in 2010, 6 so far 2011) has had a rough go of late but gets a driver change to Steve Wiseman who was in the sulky for back-to-back wins in March.

Bet: 2, 5

Race 7

Gotta love Satire (9-2) because he won for us the last time out but he'll be pressed from the difficult 7 post and will have to race his best time of the year in this heady company. Star Time Kid (2-1) is easily the best here and has seven wins in 2011 to prove it, including a field-beating best time of 1:52.3. Cycle Power (3-1) hasn't enjoyed results this season but has the speed to compete.

Bet: 1, 4

Race 8

A $1,600 stampede, um, er, trot. Liked Letter of Intent (2-1) the last time out but she had too much to overcome after being parked and nine back. Still, a game second place finish makes her the favorite here. Interested in KD Rowdy One (12-1) in first of the year coming off an injury. Would be easily the best were it not for the variables of light racing and injury.

Bet: 2, 3

Race 9

Wow. A maiden race. Perfect to increase the payout in a Pick 4.

Bet: 1, 2, 4, 8

Pick 4 Card: 25/14/23/1248 = $32

Pick 4 a Cal Expo

2011-04-26T18:36:00.000-07:00

We've been joking around the AH headquarters lately that our Pick 4s ought to be called Pick 2s. But that's not going to stop us from trying to hit our first of the season and launching a winning streak to end all winning streaks. Although, in this case, it would be a winning streak to begin all winning streaks. But let's not quibble.

On Thursday night, Cal Expo has a Pick 4 (races 6-9) with a $10,000 guaranteed pool and a reduced 15% takeout.

Let's have at it:

Sixth Race: So, Paul the Powerful, we meet again! Back on April 21 the AH picked Paul the Powerful as one of his two choices in a Pick 4 race only to see the weakling fade to fifth. Damn. This week Paul (2-1) pulls a better post, moving from the 8 to the 1. (Interestingly, the 5 has been the hottest post at Cal Expo all season long by a statistically significant margin.) Can Paul rebound from a disappointing fifth (though by only 3 lengths) and win? Yes, maybe.

But the AH really likes Little Box Out (4-1) to win the race, and not only because the AH was a slow, medium-height, non-jumping basketball player who relied heavily on the aforementioned "box out" to earn his keep in pick-up games until injuries sidelined him for good. But seriously, Little Box Out has some real value, dropping down from $3,900 to $2,300 and getting a driver change to Tim Maier. The company at $2,300 should be more benign.

Bet: 1, 2

Seventh Race: Wish we could find value in any of the pacers here except the chalk, but it's hard to imagine any of the long shots beating either Heartbrake Ridge (8-5) or Achy Breaky

Art (7-2). The latter was in first after the half in a $15,000 sire stake before being asked for a little too much and breaking to finish fourth, 12 lengths back. The 3YO gelding was coming off back-to-back wins including a lifetime best 1:56.4 on April 15. Not sure why Heartbrake Ridge is the prohibitive favorite after a lackluster stretch of five races finishing no better than fourth and no closer than five lengths, though if he is ready to break out of his slump he's recorded a 1:56.1 at Cal Expo in an even more impressive 1:55.1 in a runner-up effort.

Math Wiz (6-1) is a wild card having won his only lifetime start on April 21 in 1:59.2. But that race was more impressive than it seems: Math Wiz came out of the 9 hole and fell a whopping 19 lengths off the pace before roaring up (double parked no less) to pass the field and win going away. He's a stout closer with admirable final quarters in both of his qualifying races and his lone victory.

Bet: 3, 4, 5

Eighth race: This should be a stampede. Irish Whiskey (2-1) draws the enviable 5 post and should be a strong drink here. Boo Coo Blush (9-2) has already finished ahead of Irish Whiskey twice this year including a race on April 14. However, his post (7) will probably have him on the outside looking in. Franky Provolone (5-2) is coming off a disappointing seventh, a race he led at every call before fading down the stretch. But the 4YO gelding was game in his two previous tries, a place and a win. In both races, he came from off the pace without cover to get into the money.

Bet: 5, 6

Ninth race: Shoot the Works (2-1) has the most impressive resume of any horse in the Pick 4. In his last 12 races he's finished no worse than fourth (three times) and has three wins, four places and two shows. He gives us the luxury of picking only one horse this race.

Bet: 1

Cal Expo Pick 4

2011-04-21T13:23:00.000-07:00

There is another $10,000 guaranteed Pick 4 pool tonight at Cal Expo (races 6-9) and the Amateur Handicapper is still in search of his first Pick 4 of the season. Last night at Northfield got off to a promising start when Native Flower came home to win at 7-1 odds in the eighth race. (I picked the horse when it was at 4-1 odds in the morning line. Nice overlay.)

But things went quickly south. My favorite horse in the ninth, Shark Lover, was a scratch ("sick") and my other option, Goin Home Ray, lost by a neck.

Easy come, easy go.

In the sixth at Cal Expo the favorite is Cash Allowance at 8-5. The brown gelding has won four of his last eight and is dropping down in class to $2,400 from recent races at $2,900 and $3,400. But the Amateur Handicapper is leaning towards Long Last Look at 7-2 and coming off a blistering 1:54.4 win in the heady company of $4,000 claimers. Can't imagine we'll get odds as good as 7-2 on a horse who has won six of eight but he certainly must be on our Pick 4 card.

At 3-1, Shoot the Works is also hard to resist. With Luke Plano in sulky, Shoot the Works clocked in at 1:53.3 in January victory and has been solid all season long. He hasn't finished worse than third in his last eight races.

Call it a gut call, but the Amateur Handicapper is leaving Cash Allowance off the ticket in favor of the two next best horses.

Sixth race: 1, 5

The seventh race should be a good old fashioned stampede. Not one of the nine horses in the $1,800 trot has won a race this year in under 2:00. Boo Coo Blush (2-1) has been the most consistent trotter around the 2-minute mark and she's coming down in class from a season spent in $2,500 claimers. Her post (4) shouldn't hurt her.

Cherry Tree Rojo (3-1) has been more consistent than Letter of Intent (6-1) but the Amateur Handicapper is looking closely at the latter based on a game effort two races ago in which the bay mare closed a gap of 13 lengths to 3 and a show finish. She was fourth over her last race but should benefit from her inside post.

Seventh race: 1, 4

The eighth race is another tough one. So tough, the Amateur Handicapper is leaning towards betting on Nittany Linebacker (5-1) because he graduated from Penn State or on Satire (5-2) because in a former life he was a books editor for The Columbus Dispatch. Having said that, it would be foolish to leave out Star Time Kid, who is dropping from $7,000 (he won at $8,000 three weeks ago) to $3,900 and is driven by Cal Expo star driver Rick Plano. Only one horse in the race can touch Star Time Kid's 1:52.4 win earlier this year, and Western So's 1:52.4 was completed with Lemoyne Svendsen in the sulky. Western So hasn't had nearly that sort of luck as of yet with Scott Cisco.

Eighth race: 4, 5 and 9

Paul the Powerful (2-1) is the morning line favorite in the ninth race, a winner four times this year including a five length victory in late March that boasts the strongest power rating (90) by a wide margin. Will the 8 post be a hindrance? Perhaps.

Double Dakota (5-1) appears to be rounding into form after a lengthy stretch of mediocrity. Despite being parked early and fanned three wide the bay gelding managed an impressive charge from the middle of the field to finish second on April 9 by two lengths. He ran his final quarter in a brisk :28.2. With any racing luck Double Dakota should be near the front as the horses come down the stretch and if he hasn't been used up, he might just sneak in ahead of Paul the Powerful.

Ninth race: 7, 8

Pick 4: 15/14/459/78 = $24

Pick 4 at Northfield Park

2011-04-20T13:19:00.000-07:00

There is another $10,000 guaranteed Pick 4 pool tonight at Northfield Park (races 8-11) and the Amateur Handicapper is aching, just aching, to hit his first Pick 4 of the season. Last week we had a less than stellar outing at Cal Expo. May the gods favor us tonight.

The eighth race is a wide open pace for non-winners of $250 per start in 2011 and non-winners of $1,250 in the last five races. The Amateur Handicapper understands that "non-winners" is a synonym in the program for "wide open"!

The field is loaded with Northfield regulars, including the three favorites in the 1-3 post positions: Take the Long Way (5-2), Native Fate (9-2) and JL Nate the Great (7-2). I'm not wedded to any of the three. Take the Long Way is probably the best of the lot based on recent performance including a win on March 28 and an even more impressive third on April 2 that included a :28.3 closing quarter.

But it's a couple of longer shots that have piqued my curiosity: Native Flower (4-1) is much the best horse here if she can avoid breaking as she did her previous two times out. She's come way down in class (from the $10,000 range to $2,400) but has faltered of late on good/sloppy tracks. Is this the race she demonstrates why trainer Tye Loy had her racing in such relatively rich company at the Meadows earlier this year?

Nelly Hanover (8-1) has her work cut out for her coming from the seventh post. She will be pacing for the first time ever on Lasix in her second outing of 2011. (She ended 2010 on a high note, winning at the Meadows in November in a lifetime best 1:58 flat.)

In the eighth race: 1, 5 and 7.

In the ninth race, Ron Jeremy (7-2) should be stiff competition (I couldn't resist) for Goin Home Ray (5-2) though as a 10YO Ron may need to race for the 1st time on Viagra to have a chance. But Goin Home Ray should have the race in hand based on the past month or so of results. (All sub-2-minute miles.) The rest of the field leaves the Amateur Handicapper cold with the exception of Shark Lover, who will leave from the unenviable 8 post but has won from there (on Jan. 26) and has two decent efforts leading into the race.

In the ninth race: 2 and 8.

Shannons Boy Scout is the class of the tenth race, coming off consecutive wins in impressive fashion including a lifetime best of 1:57 in his last. Both wins came from tough posts (6, 7) and here he's better placed in the 4 hole. Fancy Schmansy (4-1) will surely be bid down and should be. After all, the 12YO has a pair of 1:56 races (a win and a show) in his last two races and six finishes in the money in seven tries. Both favorites are coming up slightly in class this trip.

In the tenth: 5.

After being a house a-fire in February (four wins and second in five tries) Legacy Chip (7-2) has cooled considerably of late though against tougher competition. Seaworthy (4-1) is interesting in the 9 hole but has been lightly raced for the better part of a year now. Legacy Chip is the only horse in the field to win this year at Northfield in under 2:00.

Eleventh race: 1 and 9.

So, our Pick Four looks like this: 147/28/5/19 for a total of $12.

Good luck!

Pick 4 at Cal Expo ...

2011-04-12T11:31:00.000-07:00

On Thursday, the Cal Expo's Late Pick 4 (races 6, 7, 8 and 9) will feature a guaranteed pot of at least $10,000 and a reduced track takeout of 15%. So the Amateur Handicapper is going to do his best to come up with four winners so he can take you all out for a steak dinner. ... OK, so he can take his significant other out for a steak dinner. But you know he would if he could.

The sixth race includes 10 entries and I took the added measure -- from my distant perch in central Ohio -- to request from track officials their "winning post position" statistics from this year and their three previous programs.

I asked because the 2-1 favorite in the sixth race, Claim Jumper, is coming out of the 10 hole. In her four races this year, the bay filly has won three times, but her wins have come from the 3 post once the 2 post twice. In other words, she has had the luck of the draw in 2011.

And what did those winning post position stats tell us? For one, Cal Expo doesn't often have fields of 10 horses. And when they do, horses in the 10 hole finish in the money between 25% and 33% of the time. And that's just "in the money," not wins. So, Claim Jumper has her work cut out for her.

Interestingly, the post position that produced the most winners was not any of the inside posts 1 through 4; rather, the 5 post has produced the most winners at Cal Expo by a margin wide enough to catch my eye. We don't see a significant statistical drop in wins, in fact, until we get to the 8, 9 and 10 posts.

Alas, sometimes a field is weak enough (and this is, after all, a $2,700 race) that even the most fascinating of stats can be thrown out the window. The class of the race remains Claim Jumper, with Final Chapter in the six hole at 3-1 odds an attractive alternative. I'm going to have 10 and 6 on my Pick 4 card for the sixth race.

But my post position research (not to rely too heavily on any one aspect of handicapping) may prove fruitful in the seventh race, a wide open $2,900 claiming affair. The 2-1 favorite is Misdori but she's coming up in class (from $2,300 to $2,900) and off a lackluster sixth place finish on April 7 in which she "gave way late." (If I had a dollar for every wager I'd made on a horse who "gave way late" I'd be a rich man!)

Which brings me to Scooter Babe (7-2) who not only will benefit from having outstanding Cal Expo driver Steve Wiseman in the sulky, but also starts from the holy 5 hole! Scooter Babe has yet to win in 9 races this year but has dropped recently in class (from $3,400) and fought gamely on April 7 to reduce a 9-length deficit to 3 at the close despite "bad cover."

Persuade Me is also interesting coming from the 6 post and driven by another top Cal Expo reinsman, Lemoyne Svendsen.

Bet the 5 and 6 horses in the seventh.

The eighth race is another wide open affair. I realize I haven't located any longshots as of yet, but sometimes you have to work the race card you're dealt! And I'm not seeing any of the outsiders giving me a reason to plunk down money on them.

Hope Tu Place is the 2-1 favorite. She has an enviable post (2) and is off to a good start this year, finishing in the money in half of her 14 starts. But I think Bettor Approval (5-2) is the better mare here coming from the 6 post. The other mare I'm pondering is Bit O Lavec at 12-1 from the 8 post. The 6YO brown won 8 races last year in 46 tries and finished in the money 26 times. She was game in her last race going four wide and losing by a length in 2:01.

The Amateur Handicapper is leaning towards the 6 and 8 horses in the eighth race but can't find it in his heart (or mind) to leave the 2 out of the picture.

Which brings us to the ninth race, another $2,700 claimer which may provide us with our best shot and picking a horse with longer odds. The morning line heavily favors Fakeutu Bluegrass at 2-1 and with good reason. The horse averaged $1,164 per race in earnings last year, almost twice as much as her nearest competitor. She should be in any Pick 4.

But let's take a look at Double L Jammer, listed in the morning line at 8-1. He's done most of his racing at Alberta Downs but shipped to Cal Expo this winter. He was lackluster in his first seven tries, placing only once and earning a paltry $1,161 in 2011 thus far. As a consequence, he's likely to be bid down and pay a decent price. But he was in the money 9 times last year in 29 starts -- in more accomplished company than he finds himself here. (He averaged $726 per start despite winning only three time in 2010.) He should benefit from a driver change to Scott Cisco and Double L Jammer has proven himself capable of pacing at 1:57 or 1:58, which should put him right in the mix.

Gutsy Winds Ahead (12-1) is also compelling at the right price. He's won twice this year at $2,200 and $2,400 but has yet to race well at $2,700. He was a vet's scratch on April 8 due to injury. So the risk is high. A big number on the tote would entice the Amateur Handicapper, but as things stand we'll leave Gutsy Winds Ahead out of our Pick 4.

The Amateur Handicapper's Pick 4 looks like this: $1 partial wheel 6, 10 with 5, 6 with 2, 6, 8 with 3, 7. Total: $24.

Close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades!

2011-01-27T14:37:00.000-08:00

I'm rethinking my Art of the Near Miss strategy and I'm fairly certain it won't work. At least, it won't work as currently constituted. Because the pay-offs are just too low to offset the losses when you're only making between $2.20 and $4.40 per $2 ticket.

During the summer, I read a book about thoroughbred gambling and learned how a long-time pro gambler had made all his money betting on horses to come in third place. This seemed a modest strategy with the upside of many trips to the window to cash tickets.

I'd still probably advise a conservative strategy for those who are new to the game because the experience is a heck of lot more exciting when you get to cash a ticket, even a modest victory, than it is when you end up throwing aforementioned ticket onto the ground to mingle with so many thousand others.

I switched venues Wednesday to Balmoral and even though I cashed on seven of 10 races I only made out with $3 in profits.

Here's the breakdown:

1. Fox Valley Shimmer 5-2 $2.60 +$13.00
2. Bar's Duchess 5-2 $2.40 +$12.00
3. Real Peachy 5-2 $3.00 +$15.00
4. Heartland Surprise 3-1 -$10.00
5. My Name Is Fink 5-2 $2.80 +$14.00
6. Makin Memories Now 7-2 $4.40 +$22.00
7. Called To Love 5-2 -$10.00
8. Kennan's Nancy Lee 3-1 $3.20 +$16.00
9. Valley Pride 3-1 -$10.00
10. Gar 5-2 $2.20 +$11.00

Winnings +$33.00
Losses -$30.00
TOTAL +$3.00

So naturally I'm going to have to tweak this thing. (Ya think?)

What I'm thinking of is watching the odds up until they go off and only betting on the morning line favorite who promises to pay $3 or more to place. I'll have to keep an eye on the place pools and pick my spots. Or drop down to show bets, where the percentage of winners increases but the pay-offs decrease.

I'm also going to look at the morning lines (for an upcoming story in Hoof Beats) will look closely at whose lines are the truest and whether or not that makes a difference in this conservative scheme.

More soon.

Good luck at the windows!

The Art of the Near Miss, In Action ...

2011-01-26T20:27:00.000-08:00

Yesterday (in newspapers there is yesterday and today but 'no tomorrow') the Amateur Handicapper outlined a strategy of betting the favorite in every race for the same amount ($10) but to finish not first but second.

We did our field research at Balmoral in January but we chose Northfield Park for our first experiment in betting the favorite to place, which turned out to be a mistake. (But more on that later.) Our results were middling but intriguing and worth more consideration.

Here is what our card looked like when the dust had settled:

OUR HORSE FINISH OUR PAY-OFF
1. Jim's Little Wing 3rd -$10.00
2. Nico Mirabel 5th -$10.00*
3. Fortunate Belle 4th -$10.00
4. Magnificent Gift 8th -$10.00
5. My Mystique 2nd +2.40 = $12.00
6. Rounding Third No bet**
7. Towner's Great Lady 2nd +2.20 = $11.00
8. Willard Jr. 2nd +3.60 = $18.00
9. Son Ofa Spur 1st +3.20 = $16.00
10. Intrepid Aries 2nd +2.40 = $12.00
11. Fun Lady 5th -$10.00

BOTTOM LINE +$69.00
-$50.00
----------
+$19.00
*Went off at 45-1
** Odds too low to bet

So, not a bad first night using our new method of betting the favorite to come in second. We won $19.00 and that sure as heck beats losing $19.00. The middle to end of the card was quite exciting!

But I must say the results raise some interesting questions about the early morning odds. To wit, how can an early morning favorite go off at 45-1? And was that a red flag suggesting a pass or a sign we should have gone "all in"? I think the latter. And I'm dismayed that the odds-maker was so far afield. After all, the early morning odds are the trackman's attempt to guess the final odds the horses will have leaving the gate. From 3-1 to 45-1? Really?

This system shows promise but needs to be massaged. My study of Balmoral for the month of January was interesting because the odds not only predicted the true odds the horse left the gate with but also was a much better gauge of the horse's talent than was true of the odds our first night at Northfield.

More on this later.

The Art of the Near Miss ...

2011-01-25T11:41:00.000-08:00

Perhaps this post should be titled, instead, Making an Art of the Near Miss.

Because in my lay-off (sorry about the sparse posting, but it's winter and I've been refueling) I've been thinking much about morning line favorites and how they only win 33 percent of the time. So basically, what you have with the morning line favorite is a horse almost certain to go off at paltry odds and just as equally certain to lose the race or at least not finish first.

I did a quick survey of morning line favorites (randomly choosing Balmoral because they've been racing and because the track shines outside the spotlight of The Meadowlands) and gone over recent programs to discover if a hunch that I had would in fact be borne out by results.

I came to the hunch as something I'd read a few months ago rattled around in my brain: that, yes, favorites win something a tad below 33 percent of the time but that they finish second a much higher percentage of the time.

I did a little snooping around the internets (as our former preznet used to call them/it) and found this nugget:

"As a general rule, the favorite will win about 1/3 of the time, but what is amazing is how often the favorite will place, especially when less than half of the field is 5-1 or lower. In this case a favorite will place almost 100% of the time."

Italics his.

Now, devotees of The Amateur Handicapper will recall that right before the Hambo this summer I contemplated betting on favorites or near-favorites to show. Well, I was off by one spot. I think I'm going to try to bet on favorites for an entire race card to place, bet $10 each time and see what happens.

When I ran my computer module (OK, I didn't have a "module," I used a calculator and did the figuring myself) I found that, yes, favorites did only win roughly a third of the races or even a little bit below (26 percent); but they placed (or better) in 61 percent of the races I evaluated, and paid off anywhere from $2.60 to $4.20 for finishing second. The numbers are even better for the favorites when the fields are smaller, though I don't have any exact numbers on the results vis-a-vis field size.

In a recent (Jan. 22) card from Balmoral, I bet $10 to place on every favorite and came away with $78 in winnings. Not a bad night's work.

Let's see what that system can do for us tonight at Northfield Park up near Cleveland, shall we?

I'm going to bet $10 to place on the following pacers/trotters:

Race Horse Odds
1 Jimi's Little Wing 3-1
2 Nico Mirabel 3-1
3 Fortunate Belle 3-1
4 Magnificent Gift 3-1
5 My Mystique 2-1
6 Rounding Third 1-1*
7 Towner's Great Lady 2-1
8 Willard Jr 3-1
9 Son Ofa Spur 2-1
10 Intrepid Aries 2-1
11 Fun Lady 3-1

* I am leaning against wagering on Rounding Third at even money as the likely pay-off for place won't be much more than $2.10 or $2.20. I'll also watch to see which direction the 2-1 favorites move closer to race time, and shy away from them if they fall below, say, 8-5.

Good luck at the races!!!

More from the Hot Stove League ...

2010-12-22T16:13:00.000-08:00

In the quiet days before Christmas, when most harness tracks are shut down for the season and standardbreds dream of heat and grass and water, the Amateur Handicapper is put in a reflective mood. As mentioned yesterday, that reflective mood has been enhanced (or even prompted) by a collection of sports writing compiled by Lewis Lapham (the editor of Harper's magazine) called Sports & Games.

In addition to full-length pieces and excerpts from classic sports writing, Lapham has sprinkled throughout his quarterly magazine nuggets from the world of sports. I'm sure standardbred drivers would agree in principle with jockey Eddie Arroyo's complaint, circa 1974, about thoroughbreds:

"To be a jockey you must love the horse. There's a lot of times when I lose my patience with him. There's just certain horses that annoy you. There's no two alike. They have personalities just like you and I."

I'm not sure I agree with our first president, George Washington, who once said that "gambling is the child of avarice, the brother of iniquity, and the father of mischief." Or with Thomas Jefferson, who said, "Gaming corrupts our dispositions and teaches us a habit of hostility against all mankind."

Though it's difficult not to admire Tacitus, who wrote circa 100 CE what could have been written any time in the last quarter of a century: "A passion for horses, players and gladiators seems to be the epidemic folly of our times. The child receives it in his mother's womb; he brings it with him into the world, and in a mind so possessed, what room for science, or any generous purpose?"

Hot Stove League, Horse-style

2010-12-21T19:14:00.000-08:00

Well, we've taken a well deserved break from handicapping and from amateur investigations into the art of handicapping, and now, refreshed, The Amateur Handicapper is ready to turn his mind once again to the art, the Fine Art, of handicapping horse racing.

But before he plunges (headlong, as it were) into the mysteries of prognostication, let Him first turn his attention to the Great writers who have come before him and led the way in the outlining and descriptions of His trade.

To wit: The Amateur Handicapper picked up during the warm months of summer's end a quarterly magazine, one Lapham's Quarterly, Volume III, Number 3, Summer 2010 titled, in all its glory (and I heartily recommend a purchase) Sports & Games.

The Amateur Handicapper has searched high and low for materials written about harness racing and He has, in toto, been discouraged by the dearth thereof. But He is always ready to drop a hard-earned dime (or, in this case $15) in order to find the best or even the most mediocre written about our favorite past time: in order, harness racing, horse racing, gambling.

Concerning the final two aspects of our enjoyment, Sports & Games did not disappoint.

My favorite story, for sheer narrative excitement, was the piece titled "Tolstoy at the Races," a riveting description of a thoroughbred race held amongst the lords of Russia at the tail-end of the 19th century. The tragedy in the story is a fatal mistake made not by the horse but by the jockey, to the detriment of all involved.

But our favorite piece is by Robert Burton, author of The Anatomy of Melancholy, who says verily, "To say truth, 'tis the common humor of all gamesters: if they win, no men living are so jovial and merry, but if they lose, though it be but a trifle, two or three games at Tables, or a dealing at Cards for two pence a game, they are so choleric and testy that no man may speak with them, and break many times into violent passions, oaths, imprecations, and unbeseeming speeches, little differing from mad men for the time."

Concludes Burton:

"Generally of all gamesters and gaming, if it be excessive, thus much we may conclude -- that whether they win or lose for the present, their winnings are not, as that wise Seneca determines, fortune's gifts, but its snares."

Indeed.

Balmoral/history etc.

2010-11-13T07:29:00.000-08:00

It would be nice if, when the Amateur Handicapper mentioned the potential for history in the making, that he would explain just what sort of history might be made.

With that in mind, let's look at the seventh race today at Balmoral and at that great 6YO gelding, Won the West, who will be pacing in the $154,000 aged stake.

Won the West (8-5) is a money-making machine, pure and simple. In 2009, he made more than $785,000 and then followed up that season by winning $1.33 million this year. In his last nine races he has four wins, three places a third and a fourth. He has a season best time of 1:48.1.

He's looking for an unparalleled fourth consecutive American-National title, which would best the mark set by Bret Hanover from 1964 through 1966.

Hypnotic Blue Chip (3-1) should provide most of the competition for Won the West. The bay horse, trained by Kevin McDermott and driven by Tim Tetrick, was thumped by Won the West in the Indiana Pacing Derby but has defeated Won the West twice in his last nine tries. The rivalry is akin to that of youngsters Rock N Roll Heaven and One More Laugh, in that both are capable of winning.

Won the West is known for his strong finishes, something he'll be able to showcase at will on Balmoral's long home stretch. The Amateur Handicapper likes the presence of Hypnotic Blue Chip and Bettor Sweet (7-2), solid pacers who should give Won the West honest odds.

Bet: $50 to win on Won the West.

Good luck at the windows.

Balmoral and history in the making ...

2010-11-13T06:47:00.000-08:00

What a terrific card at Balmoral Park today, host to six divisions of American-National races.

In the $245,000 3YO colt and gelding stake, One More Laugh may well chuckle all the way to the bank. It's a little sad that One More Laugh is the second best horse in a season that featured the stellar Rock N Roll Heaven. Kind of like those Cleveland Cavalier teams of the late 1980s and early 1990s (you're not supposed to remember them) beaten every post season by some guy named Michael Jordan. We might look back 10 or 20 years from now on the superb One More Laugh were it not for Rock N Roll Heaven.

On the one hand, I'm sure One More Laugh (8-5) trainer Ray Schnittker and driver Tim Tetrick are licking their chops at the chance for such a large pot without having to beat Rock N Roll Heaven to get it. On the other hand, everyone else will look at the win (if win it is) and think, Well, yes, but he didn't beat Rock N Roll Heaven.

Handicappers (amateur and otherwise) will have a rough go of it this race because the field consists of the third tier pacers from the 2010 season. The best of the rest include Iam Bonasera (4-1), a capable gelding trained by Erv Miller and driven by Dave Magee; and, Razzle Dazzle (5-1), coming off a disappointing fade to fifth in the Tattersall at Lexington. In his last four races dating back to the Little Brown Jug, Razzle Dazzle has three times finished in the top three, always a good distance behind Rock N Roll Heaven.

This time Razzle Dazzle gets to finish in the top three behind One More Laugh.

With Balmoral's monster home stretch being the great post position equalizer (at least as far out as One More Laugh's sixth post position) the Amateur Handicapper is looking for a race run to form. That means One More Laugh should get a covered trip and Iam Bonasera should hang significantly off the pace until the home stretch, where he's capable of making up four or five track positions in a single charge.

But One More Laugh is a good two seconds better than Iam Bonasera on most days and he's the horse of choice.

Really, there is little chance to make money on this race barring something so crazy we wouldn't dare bet on it.

The Amateur Handicapper is avoiding this race but will say that Aracache Hanover is interesting in exotics. His division at the Jug was simply too stout but if he ever regains the form he demonstrated in July and August (four consecutive wins in 1:50.1 to 1:51.2) he could vie for second or third. (Though his wins were gate to wire, something that's quite difficult at Balmoral.)

So, no bet on the eighth. Just watching and enjoying.

What has man done more noble than this?

2010-11-04T11:43:00.000-07:00

We dipped a toe into Sherwood Anderson's 1930 essay 'The American County Fair,' but we ran out of space just as the Ohio author (and creator of Winesburg, Ohio) was about to get to the best part, the horses and the races.

Without further fanfare, we transport you back in time to an age of pageantry and standing starts.

"Now it is time for the races. A bell rings. The judges of the races in the judges' stand that is directly in front of the grandstand. There is a race starter who has a voice like an auctioneer. He shouts through a megaphone.

It is difficult to clear the track for the races. Thousands of people have gathered there. The starter of the races, with his megaphone, shouts, the county sheriff, a large man, appears and shouts. The people move back slowly, reluctantly.

And now, here are the horses -- the trotters and pacers. This is something to wait for.

The horses are moving down the tracks, swiftly and smoothly. What has man done more noble than this?

He has developed these fine beasts.

They have been taught to go at a certain gait, the trot or pace, faster, faster, faster. They are hitched to little carts, very delicately made, and the driver sits up close to the horse. The moving flanks of the horse are almost in the driver's lap.

The drivers are young and old men. Some of them, many of them in fact, are quite respectable men at other times during the year, excepting only in the fall when the fairs are being held. Now they shout, they lean forward over their horses.

There is no money to be made racing horses at fairs. The horses cost too much. It costs too much to train them.

Professional trainers must be employed. There is feed to be bought, harness, racing carts and other equipment. The trainer's salary must be paid and there are grooms, in our part of the country a black for each horse.

The owners are country bankers, farmers, doctors and merchants.

The horses race for a purse of say two hundred dollars. A hundred dollars is given the winner and the other hundred is distributed between the second, third, and fourth horse.

And now the doctors, bankers, merchants, prosperous farmers have become something other than doctors, bankers, merchants, farmers. They have put on little gaily colored caps and gaily colored coats. The horses are brought out hitched to their carts.

The respectable citizen, who has become a jockey, is on the track, before the grandstand walking up and down.

Now the crowd is all attention. The shows are deserted, the band stops playing.

People crowd into the grandstand, they crowd to the fences.

The jockeys have mounted the little sulkies with the delicate bicycle wheels and the horses are being warmed up.

They dash up and down. The horses also are excited and the drivers are tense.

The drivers try to appear cool. After all this is dangerous business. These horses, so highly bred, so finely trained, sometimes lose their heads.

The horses must score down past the grandstand and the judges' stand until the race starters decides it is a fair start. Each driver tries to crowd to the front, to give his horse an advantage.

If it is not a fair start a bell rings and they must try again."

Tomorrow: "On the Grand Circuit."

Sherwood Anderson, Part II

2010-11-03T12:57:00.001-07:00

A kind reader of the Amateur Handicapper pointed me in the direction of another piece of writing (this time an essay rather than a short story) by Ohioan Sherwood Anderson about harness racing and the county fair.

The essay, which first appeared in a pamphlet in 1930 but holds true even today, begins,

"It is an odd time in a town. The fair ground commonly is a deserted place. It stands on a hill.

The land rolls away. Now the fair is being held. From the grandstand, where you sit to watch the races, you can see, over a high board fence, into the distant hills.

The fair is held sometime at the end of August but sometimes not until late October or early November. It makes a difference in the color of the hills.

Hills are at their best when white farmhouses cling to their sides. Nature untouched by man is too terrible. You become terrorized. The pioneers, who go into lands were man has not been, must be very brave or very dull. Perhaps they are only dull."

Anderson goes on to describe the fair fare, "the snake-tamer, the fat woman, the hoochy-coochy girls, the woman buried alive, the man with the web feet and hands, a calf with two heads."

The description put me in mind of something Columbus Dispatch columnist Mike Harden wrote more than half a century later about taking his grandson Christian to a county fair,
“When I was Christian’s age, we had to pay extra to see the illustrated man and the fat lady. Now they walk freely among us on the midway.”

Anderson continues his rhapsody: "The fair is something special in the county. In spite of all the talk about improving agriculture, etc. it is a pagan outbreak."

Tomorrow: Sherwood Anderson on standardbreds and harness racing.

Sherwood Anderson on the county fair ...

2010-10-28T09:46:00.000-07:00

Having recently spent a sultry day at the Delaware County Fair marveling in the glory of the pacer called Rock N Roll Heaven, I was reminded (as I always am when I'm on the fairgrounds) of Sherwood Anderson's appreciation for and understanding of what he refers to as the Middle Western County Fair.

Anderson wrote about county fairs in an essay in the 1930s and also in his classic short story collection, Winesburg, Ohio.

In the short story, "Sophistication," Anderson describes a bustling fair day in Winesburg:

IT WAS EARLY evening of a day in, the late fall and
the Winesburg County Fair had brought crowds of
country people into town. The day had been clear
and the night came on warm and pleasant. On the
Trunion Pike, where the road after it left town
stretched away between berry fields now covered
with dry brown leaves, the dust from passing wag-
ons arose in clouds. Children, curled into little balls,
slept on the straw scattered on wagon beds. Their
hair was full of dust and their fingers black and
sticky. The dust rolled away over the fields and the
departing sun set it ablaze with colors.

In the main street of Winesburg crowds filled the
stores and the sidewalks. Night came on, horses
whinnied, the clerks in the stores ran madly about,
children became lost and cried lustily, an American
town worked terribly at the task of amusing itself.

I like that line about "an American town" working "terribly at the task of amusing itself. Later in the story, protagonist George Willard comes upon a barn, in which a standarbred owner is holding forth after a rousing victory earlier in the day:

George felt so utterly lonely and dejected that he
wanted to weep but pride made him walk rapidly
along, swinging his arms. He came to Wesley Moy-
er's livery barn and stopped in the shadows to listen
to a group of men who talked of a race Wesley's
stallion, Tony Tip, had won at the Fair during the
afternoon. A crowd had gathered in front of the
barn and before the crowd walked Wesley, prancing
up and down boasting. He held a whip in his hand
and kept tapping the ground. Little puffs of dust
arose in the lamplight. "Hell, quit your talking,"
Wesley exclaimed. "I wasn't afraid, I knew I had
'em beat all the time. I wasn't afraid."

Ordinarily George Willard would have been in-
tensely interested in the boasting of Moyer, the
horseman. Now it made him angry. He turned and
hurried away along the street. "Old windbag," he
sputtered. "Why does he want to be bragging? Why
don't he shut up?"

Of course George is right. Why don't he shut up? You won't find a driver or a trainer or an owner talking that sort of bluster nowadays. Or maybe you would, just not a big race like the Little Brown Jug. Maybe at a little county fair in a faraway place, where folks still remember the horses who pulled their buggies and the more talented horses who won their races.

But it isn't only the harness racing that makes Anderson's county fair so memorable. It is the fairground itself, that land at the edge of town, the threshold from the small and modest to the great world outside of Winesburg or a thousand places just like it.

There is something memorable in the experience
to be had by going into a fair ground that stands at
the edge of a Middle Western town on a night after
the annual fair has been held. The sensation is one
never to be forgotten. On all sides are ghosts, not
of the dead, but of living people. Here, during the
day just passed, have come the people pouring in
from the town and the country around. Farmers
with their wives and children and all the people
from the hundreds of little frame houses have gath-
ered within these board walls. Young girls have
laughed and men with beards have talked of the
affairs of their lives. The place has been filled to
overflowing with life. It has itched and squirmed
with life and now it is night and the life has all gone
away. The silence is almost terrifying. One conceals
oneself standing silently beside the trunk of a tree
and what there is of a reflective tendency in his na-
ture is intensified. One shudders at the thought of
the meaninglessness of life while at the same in-
stant, and if the people of the town are his people,
one loves life so intensely that tears come into the
eyes.

The Showdown at Pocono !!!

2010-10-07T08:03:00.000-07:00

This is the race we've all been waiting for: The Breeders Crown Final for 3YO colts and geldings and the head-to-head match-up between One More Laugh (7-2) and Rock N Roll Heaven (2-1).

The two best 3YO pacers of the 2010 campaign last battled on Aug. 22 at the Battle of the Brandywine at Chester. Rock N Roll Heaven was the better colt in that race, coming from nine lengths off the leaders and parked for half the race before destroying the competition down the stretch to beat One More Laugh by two and a quarter lengths and We Will See by three and quarter lengths. It was a dominating performance and one that only confirmed what trainer Bruce Saunders has know for more than 12 months.

"She's the best horse I've ever had," Saunders said at the Jug Barn in Delaware, Ohio, after Rock N Roll Heaven whipped the field in his second heat of the day. His second 1:49.2 of the day! "I knew last year when he raced as a 2YO that he was the best I'd ever had. He hasn' t made a mistake or done anything wrong this year to make me change my mind."

One More Laugh finished third in his elimination at the Little Brown Jug and, consistent with what trainer Ray Schnittker promised before the race, was scratched out of the second elimination. (Because a horse needs to win two heats, One More Laugh would have had to beat Rock N Roll Heaven in a second and third heat to win the Jug.)

But One More Laugh lives to fight another day, and that day is Saturday.

Excuse the Amateur Handicapper for writing as if this were a two horse race. After all, there are colts in the field of nine who have already beaten one or the other of the favorites. Rockin Image beat Rock N Roll Heaven in the Holmes in what Saunders called a "fair and square win." Rock Image also finished ahead of One More Laugh in their Jug elimination, which was won by I'm Gorgeous.

This will be "no excuses" racing. One More Laugh and drive Tim Tetrick have the two post; Rock N Roll Heaven and driver Dan Dube the three.

Rock N Roll Heaven won his elimination in 1:49.1, showing no ill effects at all from his arduous day (Sept. 23) at the Jug. One More Laugh won his elimination in gate-to-wire no sweat (OK, so maybe there was a little sweat!) 1:50 flat.

Both horses have won more than $1.69 million in their careers. Rock N Roll Heaven has won 15 of 24 lifetime starts; One More Laugh 15 of 25. Rock N Roll Heaven has been more heavily raced as a 3YO, winning 10 of 15 starts to One More Laugh's 6 of 13.

One More Laugh has won four of his last eight races. Rock N Roll Heaven is even hotter, having won five in a row and seven of 10.

This, simply, is an awesome race featuring two great horses.

The Amateur Handicapper is leaning towards Rock N Roll Heaven, and not solely because he had a chance to pet the colt in the Jug Barn after his amazing day in Delaware. The fact of the matter is, when all things have been equal, Rock N Roll Heaven has been just a fraction better than One More Laugh. Yes, One More Laugh did win the $1 million Meadowlands Pace, but that was after a ridiculous first quarter (:25.4) that pushed Rock N Roll Heaven too far too fast. Shoobee's Place (12-1) is hardly likely to push Rock N Roll Heaven to an extreme in order to secure the rail.

The problem with this race is, of course, the odds. Rock N Roll Heaven is likely to go off at even money or even much worse. One More Laugh is likely to stay at or near 7-2. It's possible One More Laugh will win though not likely. Similarly, it's possible One More Laugh will fade after a game go at Rock N Roll Heaven, enough so that another horse could sneak in for a decently priced exacta.

Bet: $20 win on Rock N Roll Heaven

Good luck at the windows!

The Little Brown Jug ...

2010-09-21T14:08:00.000-07:00

As a central Ohio boy (transplanted from Northfield Park country up north) I mark the changing of the seasons not with the first Ohio State University football game or with the changing of the leaves, but with the Little Brown Jug.

I have been in attendance on at least a dozen occasions in the past two decades and had the pleasure of watching Well Said's amazing performance at the Jug last year, coming from the eighth post position to win his preliminary heat and then blowing the doors off it in the next heat to take home the Jug.

This year's Jug, the 65th annual, is fascinating. The field of 23 will go off in heats of 8, 8 and 7 horses. We'll look at the first division today, the second division tomorrow and the third division the morning of the Jug.

Rock N Roll Heaven is the prohibitive favorite in the first division at 2-1. The colt by Rock N Roll Hanover out of Artistic Vision will start in the enviable two hole. He's won four of his last six starts and seven of 12 this year. (His two losses have come to One More Laugh, the favorite in the third division.)

Rock N Roll Heaven trainer Bruce Saunders told the Amateur Handicapper that he's pleased, obviously, to have drawn the second post position and to have come out ahead in the GAL category.

"That stands for grab ass luck. And at the Jug, you need a lot of it," Saunders said.

Not surprisingly, Saunders feels his horse has ended up in the strongest division. He may be right.

Kyle Major (7-2) and We Will See (4-1) have won $250,000 and $737,000 respectively this year and most likely won't let Rock N Roll Heaven get away without a fight.

"There are four or five horses who who have to go forward into the first turn there," Saunders said, throwing in Aracache Hanover (8-1) as another horse to look for at the first turn.

Look, Rock N Roll Heaven should win this division. He can run to the lead and hold it or drop back for cover and make a move around the last turn. Saunders and driver Dan Dube can pretty much choose their strategy.

The other horses aren't as lucky (or as good)!

Kyle Major has been, according to Saunders, "something of a Jekyll and Hyde colt this year." He's won 5 of 14 races but only once since June 26. That once was in the Simcoe on Sept. 11 when he went wire to wire and won in 1:49.4.

Fred and Ginger (6-1) is another of the very good colts in the first division. He's won two in a row at the Meadows and finished fourth in the Battle of the Brandywine behind Rock N Roll Heaven, One More Laugh and We Will See. His post position (3) should give him a chance (if not a flat out edge) to finish ahead of We Will See and Aracache Hanover. The finals are not out of the question for this horse.

We Will See had a most unfortunate draw and will launch his bid for the Jug from the seven hole. While certainly not a death sentence, the draw does not bode well in such a highly competitive division. Tough luck for a horse who has won three of his last six races all at or around the 1:50 mark.

Aracache Hanover will start even further out in the eight hole. If history is any indication (and in handicapping we pray that it is!) the colt will roar out from the eighth post and contend for the lead. On July 17 at the 5/8ths track at the Meadows, Aracache Hanover went from eighth to first in a quarter; on Aug. 15 at the half-mile track at Flamboro Downs, he left from the ninth hole and again managed to take the lead at the quarter. The latter feat was even more impressive because the colt the had to dodge a breaking 1 horse before he was able to take the lead and go wire to wire.

Since the Amateur Handicapper loves Rock N Roll Heaven and since that colt is likely to go off at even money or worse, here's what we'll do:

Bet $25 to win on Rock N Roll Heaven but only at 3-2 or better odds.

Bet a $10 exacta with Rock N Roll Heaven over We Will See.

Also, a $1 trifecta wager 2 over the 3/7/8.

Good luck at the windows!

The Cane Pace ...

2010-09-06T08:46:00.000-07:00

The $300,000 Cane Pace, the first leg of pacing's triple crown, is upon us.

Because One More Laugh drew the one post, he'll begin the day as the 2-1 favorite. And why not? The 3YO by Mcardle out of Fancy Creek Funny, has finished first or second in eight of his 10 races this season. With this gelding, it's either/or. Take the Meadowlands Pace, for instance. One More Laugh came in second in his elimination heat by a head to Rocknroll Heaven in a record-setting 1:47.4. He came back a week later and won the Meadowlands Pace, again in 1:47.4.

One More Laugh will not have to contend with his chief rival, Rock N Roll Heaven, at least not until the Little Brown Jug on Sept. 23.

Today his toughest competition is likely to come from Delmarvalous (5-2). The bay colt driven by Brian Sears has not cracked into the 1:47s this season and only won 2 races in 11 tries. (As a 2YO, he won 8 of 11 races. But Delmarvalous did defeat One More Laugh on Aug. 7 in the Holmes by nearly two full lengths.

I'm Gorgeous is looking pretty at 4-1. With Andy Miller at the lines on Aug. 28 in a Cane elimination, the colt by Bettor's Delight out of Joy, won easily over Woodstock and Valentino. It was his second consecutive win.

Rockin Image (5-1) is another horse to consider, especially in exotics. He's won four of 11 races in 2010 but has been off form (fractionally) in his two most recent races. Rockin Image has beaten both Rock N Roll Heaven and Delmarvalous this year but he's also lost to One More Laugh and Delmarvalous. His post position (5) shouldn't be too much of an obstacle.

Valentino (6-1) is another horse worthy of consideration, just as long as we don't get too carried away. The colt by Rocknroll Hanover out of Schoolofcardknocks has been around the money all season long (11 of 16 races) but has been a decided also-ran of late.

Look, this handicapping game can be mind-boggling. Let's keep it simple. The two horses most likely to win the Cane Pace are One More Laugh and Delmarvalous drew the sweetest post positions: 1 and 2 respectively.

Without Rock N Roll Heaven in the field, the Amateur Handicapper is leaning towards betting $20 to win on One More Laugh. Further keeping things simple, we're boxing a $10 exacta on One More Laugh and Delmarvalous.

Good luck at the windows!

The Simcoe Stakes at Mohawk ...

2010-09-05T08:26:00.000-07:00

There is a battle royal shaping up in the eighth race tonight at Mohawk, the $236,000 Simcoe Stakes for 3YO fillies.

Barring some sort of bizarre happening (like last night's heavy rains?) the race should be a duel between Put On a Show (8-5) and Western Silk (2-1). The other eight horses in the field should be filed under "also ran."

Just how good is Put On a Show? Well, the fillie by Rocknroll Hanover out of Stienams Place has won eight of 10 races this year. She is, simply put, a 1:50 machine! In eight of her last 10 races she's run in 1:50 (and sometimes change) and she won both of her 1:51 races. She is impervious to post, having won twice from post position 9 after waiting a quarter to clear. In her last six races she's put up three final quarters of note: :26.4, :26 and :25.4. Her only misstep was on Aug. 7, a sixth place finish.

But Western Silk is no slouch. The fillie by Western Terror out of Extemporaneous has won six of eight races in 2010 including four of her last five. She's not quite the 1:50 machine that Put On a Show is, but she's close: in her last six races she's crossed the finish line in either 1:50 or 1:51. She's doing her best racing as summer turns into fall.

But the race that caught my eye and piqued my interest today was an epic duel between Put On a Show and Western Silk on June 26. In that affair, Western Silk roared from eighth to clear the field at the quarter mark (after spending the beginning of the race parked) and she tenaciously hung on as Put On a Show charged to the front after trailing early by 12 lengths. Wow. Just wow.

The race isn't definitive. On the one hand, Put On a Show was epic coming from behind and lost by only a neck. Then again, Western Silk weathered tough early going and an uncovered trip and still mustered the courage to hang on. In short, these are two danged good horses.

Put On a Show is a slight favorite but she'll have a little work to do coming from the seven hole. I'm putting my money on Western Silk because of her benign post (1) and because she's at the top of her game. (I like Ice Ice Baby at 25-1 in exotics.)

But let's keep it simple and bet $20 to win on Western Silk.

Good luck at the windows!

The Canadian Pacing Derby ...

2010-09-04T10:36:00.000-07:00

An open pace for 3YO and older is like a visit from dear old friends. Remember when the 7YO Shark Gesture won the Bluegrass and Tattersalls at three and then won the Breeders Crown at four? Or when Won the West set a stakes record in beating Art Official last year in the Breeders Crown open pace? Good times. Good times.

Shark Gesture is closing in on a remarkable $3 million in earnings as he heads into today's $780,000 Canadian Pacing Derby at Mohawk. He's the early morning favorite at 2-1.

Won the West has won 30 races in a stellar career. The 6YO bay gelding has finished in the money in all 12 of his races in 2010 and amassed more than half a million dollars in earnings.

Hypnotic Blue Chip (5-2) has been keeping Shark Gesture honest this season. In August, Hypnotic Blue Chip defeated Shark Gesture at the U.S. Pacing Championship at the Big M and the lost to the same in the Haughton by a half a length.

Though Shark Gesture is arguably the best horse currently going in harness racing, his post (8) may pose a challenge. Hypnotic Blue Chip (2) and Won the West (4) both had better luck drawing post positions.

Of the two 5-2 shots, the Amateur Handicapper leans towards Hypnotic Blue Chip on the basis of his victory against Shark Gesture in a blazing time of 1:47.2. And how often can you get better than 2-1 odds on a horse who has run that fast?

I'm betting $20 to win on Hypnotic Blue Chip.

Good luck at the windows!

The Cane Pace ...

2010-08-28T09:35:00.000-07:00

Later this afternoon Freehold Raceway will present the $100,000 Cane Pace elimination for 3YOs.

I'm Gorgeous is coming off a win last week in 1:50.4 and is the early favorite at 3-1. But this season has had its ups and downs for the colt by Bettor's Delight out of Joy. On Aug. 15 he was parked early and never challenged, finishing seventh by more than eight lengths in the Confederation Cup.

Valentino (7-2) lost last time out to I'm Gorgeous, roaring from fifth to the lead before fading in the second half of the race to fourth. He has won in a season best time of 1:49.3 at the Big M. But perhaps his best race was a third place finish in the Million Dollar Mile, a loss to One More Laugh and Rocknroll Heaven in 1:48 flat.

Woodstock (9-2) should be there at the end as well. The lightly raced colt by Rocknroll Hanover out of Gothic Lady won a qualifier on Aug. 13 by a whopping 20-plus lengths and followed that effort up a week later with a resounding win by three lengths in a New Jersey Sire Stakes race. He's had two trainer changes this year but seems to have settled in with Noel Daley. Brian Sears will be in the sulky.

Rockin Image (5-1) won the Holmes on Aug. 7 in 1:48.2 and has four races in his last ten with speed figures in triple digits. The only thing holding him back (or at least down in the odds) is his seventh post position.

Rockin Image won the Holmes from the seventh post and looks to be the best in this field.

I'm betting $20 to win on Rockin Image.

Good luck at the windows!

Can Sally Sneak Through This Alley?

2010-08-17T09:51:00.000-07:00

Indiana Downs will host the second leg of the Indiana Sire Stakes for 3YO fillies this afternoon.

The prohibitive favorite in the second race is Dark Alley Sally (7-5) who will be gunning (or rather pacing) for her eighth consecutive victory. The gal by Third Straight out of Main Street Madam has won in just about every way possible during her streak, coming from the outside (sixth post) and from the inside (first post), winning with early speed and by stalking, and putting up a leisurely time (2:02.1) and a smart time (1:54.3). The latter time was in a convincing 8-length win her last time out on Aug. 10.

Given the strength of Dark Alley Sally, the Amateur Handicapper will attempt a feat of daring do, looking back to blog items last week about playing the show bet. Why? Because there's no reason one can see from this vantage point to disqualify Dark Alley Sally from winning the race. And at 7-5 (and perhaps worse come post time) it's unlikely we'll get any sort of odds on her.

Dark Alley Sally should provide early pace though she may let a horse like Playgirl Interlude (10-1) onto the lead in order to gain cover. Fakeutu Bluegrass (4-1) has also shown an aptitude (albeit seldom employed) for early speed: on May 29 she charged from the 10 post to make the first fraction in fourth place before falling back. Twotwenty Power (3-1) has had as much success hanging back out of the gate as she has pushing the lead. It's likely she'll be at or near the front of the pack around the first turn.

The reason we're looking to use the show bet formula at Indiana Downs is simple: the track has a monstrously long backstretch which give closers an excellent chance of making a move even after being in trouble.

Which brings us to Electric Sparkle (5-2), the unlucky fillie who drew the 11 post in an 11-horse field. Her post should eliminate her from all consideration. After all, in 16 races this season at Indiana Downs with an 11-horse field, the 11 post has produced but 1 win and 1 show.

But Electric Sparkle may prove the exception that makes the rule: Poor trainer Bobby Brower, and poor Electric Sparkle. The fillie by Electric Yankee out of Lissycasey has drawn the following post positions in her last seven races: 5, 9, 10, 8, 10, 1 and 9. Can you say, Bad luck?

Look what she's done, however, with those lemons: She moved from ninth to finish third (July 27); tenth to finish fourth (July 10); eighth to finish first (June 26); tenth to finish third (June 11) and ninth to finish second (May 21). And she was parked in almost all those races, double-parked in one of them for half the race.

Because of her lousy post position, I'm hoping we can get decent money on Electric Sparkle to lay back, stay out of trouble and then to make a move down the long backstretch to at least finish third.

As per our instructions, the Amateur Handicapper will watch the odds board and demand a price of at least $2.80 on a $2 bet. If he gets it, he'll bet an unusually large (for him at least!) ticket: $100.

Good luck at the windows!

Back to the track Pick 4 !!

2010-08-13T06:51:00.000-07:00

The Amateur Handicapper has his work cut out for him this week. But what an exciting weekend it will be, what with the U.S. Trotting Association's Back to the Track galas taking places at nearly two dozen tracks throughout the U.S.

The USTA has negotiated with those tracks to present folks with a fantastic opportunity to wager on a Pick 4 at four different tracks with only a 15% takeout and $50,000 guaranteed. So, not only can you outwit the world this weekend, you get to keep more of your hard-earned winnings if you do!

But that task before us is daunting.

The Meadowlands, Race 1

The first race we'll handicap is set for the Meadowlands and features a purse of $14,625. Having bet the best horses in the game all summer long, it's nice to be faced with a field of unknowns (at least to me).

Pair of Dice is the prohibitive favorite at 3-1. The bay gelding by Cam's Card Shark has had his two best outings of the year in his last two races, a win on July 21 in 1:51.3 and a third place finish on July 31 in 1:51 flat. But he's laid several eggs, too, including lackluster finishes of eighth, seventh and seventh in late June and early July. And he's won only 1 of 13 races in 2010.

Allamerican Inca would surely be better than 7-2 had he not drawn the ninth post. The bay gelding by Western Hanover won a race on July 16 in a stout 1:51.1. That's plenty of speed for the company if he gets any sort of racing luck.

Hennessey Hanover (9-2) will leave from the third post and hope to get back to his winning ways after a long draught. I like that fact that Brian Sears is back in the sulky and that Hennessey Hanover has remained competitive throughout his non-win streak, including three second place finishes in his last 10. The horse is always around 1:51.

Northfield Park, Race 2

This pace is for non-winners of $300 per start in 2009-2010 or 2010. The horses are good, not great. Not surprisingly, the top three horses are in the 1,2 and 3 post positions. Of those three, Sunset Ball was giving the edge in early handicapping and will go off at 5-2. The the gelding has won four times this season he hasn't finished better than third in his last 10 races.

Intrepid Aries (7-2) has a win in 1:55.4 over that same stretch (last 10) and an impressive second place finish in 1:55.1.

The lightly raced Moreland Flash (9-2) has done better more recently than his rivals, winning two races in his last seven including a 1:55.3 on July 31.

Yonkers Raceway, Race 3

The New York City racing mecca will host our third race in the Pick 4, a pace for non-winners of $18,000 in their last six starts with a purse of $33,750.

King Cat Anvil (3-1) seems the best of a competitive group, having won this year in 1:53 (albeit back in June) and having raced consistently at 1:53 to 1:55 all season long. His last win, in fact, came at $33,750, so maybe he considers this division his home?

Pacific Renegade (5-1) has had an illustrious career during which he's amassed more than $760,000 in earnings. But the 9YO seems to be slowing down this season. His only win in his last 10 came in a race for $14,000 and was a modest 1:55.4.

Esprit de Kayjay A (6-1) won a race on June 5 in 1:53.4. It seems as if he might be a little happier racing at lower levels, but he's more often competitive than not.

Balmoral Park, Race 4

Western Siege (4-1) would be closer to even money in this race for $3,900 in prize money had he not drawn the 10 post. Of all the horses we're handicapping for the Pick 4, Western Siege has been the most consistent and is in the best current form. He's won three of his last five and finished second in another. His last race was his best, a 1:52.1.

Ditto Dov Bears Dream (5-1), winner of his last two races in 1:53.4. Both horses will need a traffic cop to get in position for a charge at the end.

Back up at the top of the post positions is Mack Hill (7-2). Two trips out he came home a winner in 1:53 flat. He's won two of his last eight races and never finished worst than fourth.

The Picks

3 - Hennessey Hanover

1 - Moreland Flash

6 - Esprit de Kayjay A

2 - Mack Hill

Good luck at the windows!

Picking winners vs. making money ...

2010-08-10T11:06:00.000-07:00

I've finished reading A Breed Apart by Mike Helm and wouldn't hesitate to recommend it not only to thoroughbred handicappers but to standardbred handicappers as well.

U.S. Trotting Association handicapper Steve Carpenito (http://handicapping.ustrotting.com/carpe_nito_diem.cfm) stopped by the Amateur Handicapper site yesterday (via the magic of the Internets) to discuss what turned out to be a not-so-good question from yours truly about the strategy of putting down large sums of money for horses to show. Turns out, Steve has only made two or three show bets in the last 30 years! But he gave us insights nevertheless into how he'd approach the strategy if he were to transfer it from thoroughbreds to standardbreds. Interesting stuff.

In any case, Steve would have been much more at home in Helm's discussion with the legendary West Coast thoroughbred handicapper, Ron Cox. Cox is a dedicated system player who was on the cutting edge of the information explosion that changed handicapping forever in the 1980s and 1990s.

The discussion between Helm and Cox began when the handicapper told the author about colleagues who told him, " 'My handicapping is super, but my money management is bad.' Well, that's because they're picking winners instead of figuring out how to make money at it."

Cox continued, "I spent a lot of years playing Pick Sixes and thinking it was a horrible bet for the usual reason that you have to cover too many contenders. Well, when I finally started hitting -- and in the last two years I've had the only ticket for $206,000, $85,000 and $137,000 -- the way I did it was by singling price horses. Like the general public, I used to be afraid to single a price horse. But I realized that if you single a long shot, now you can spread out in other races and play a reasonable Pick 6 ticket.

"Even the professionals give the public bad advice on this. At the Mirage Conference a speaker talked about dutching two horses when you couldn't make up your mind. He said, 'If you have four-to-one and six-to-one you bet them both, only with more money on the four-to-one.' Well, I've learned that you should bet just the opposite. If you like them both the same, why would you bet more on the shorter-priced horse? If you're saying to yourself that you can't separate them, then you should bet more on the one that's paying the most."

More useful tips from Ron Cox in an upcoming post.

Good luck at the windows!

(I haven't given it out recently, but I always welcome comments at bill.eichenberger@gmail.com)

Seize the Steve ...

2010-08-09T10:26:00.000-07:00

Last week I wrote about a book I'm reading and enjoying called A Breed Apart: The Horses and The Players by Mike Helm. I'll have more on Mike's book later, but wanted to revisit one the topics he raises after interviewing a handful of professional horse gambles.

Jack Matthewson made a living at betting horse races for decades by making large bets (between $200 and $500) on horses to show. Writes Helm:

"Matthewson typically waits for a sprint (six furlongs) with a lone front-runner or one that sets up for a closer and then watches the show and place action on the board. 'I prefer to play the speed because you don't have to worry about your horse getting in trouble,' Jack will explain. 'But a lot of times there's two or three speed horses that set it up for a closer to at least finish in the money. Since I'm normally show betting I don't have to win with a closer. He just has to do good enough to get up for third. What I like to look for in a closer at Golden Gate is a horse with an outside post, because he won't lose any ground having to come off the rail or get blocked. Generally, he'll get a clean trip coming down the backstretch a get into position to cut in and make his move at the turn."

I wondered what implications that sort of approach had if it were transferred from the thoroughbreds to standarbred horses. So I tracked down handicapper extraordinaire Steve Carpenito (over at the U.S. Trotting Association Web site) and he was kind enough answer my question, Can that sort of strategy be transferred?

Carpenito replied:

Interesting question to ask me because in 30 years of wagering on harness races I've only made a handful of show wagers. I have always been more of an exotic bettor.

"But if I was looking for the best spots to employ Matthewson's strategy the size of a racetrack plays a major role in which type of horse you would want to look for. If you are looking to wager on a half-mile racetrack, you would want to stay away from closers, particularly with outside post positions. With too many traffic issues and the short stretch run, closers, particularly ones from outside post positions, often do not get into the race. On a half-mile track I would look for a race with a front running type with an inside post position.

"On bigger racetracks, you could look for a closer in a race that promises to have a contested pace though traffic still plays into the equation. There is a much better chance a horse can get locked in during a harness race than in a thoroughbred contest.

Another consideration is pool size. To employ Matthewson's strategy and wager between $200 and $500 to show and guarantee a $2.80 payoff you must seek out racetracks with a pool size to support that kind of bet. Off hand I would suggest looking at races from The Meadowlands, Northfield Park, Woodbine/Mohawk Racetracks or Yonkers."

Steve's columns are essential reading for any handicapper looking for insights and an edge. Check him out at http://handicapping.ustrotting.com/carpe_nito_diem.cfm

Hambo a day away ...

2010-08-06T14:08:00.000-07:00

I'm like a kid today on Christmas Eve. I know -- just know! -- that Santa Claus is going to bring me that fabulous present I asked for a few months back whilst sitting on his lap.

Then again, our work is cut out for us.

Can anyone remember the last time a Hambletonian was this competitive? Don't you think there are seven horses with a legitimate shot at winning? I do. They are: Cassis, Lucky Chucky and Pilgrims Taj (the three preliminary winners) as well as Holiday Road, Muscle Massive, Mystery Photo and Temple of Doom. The latter two should give you a great price at 10-1 and 15-1 respectively.

The rest of the field is populated by stakes champs and big-money winners Hard Livin ($367,962) and On the Tab ($490.097). Wow. Just wow.

Lucky Chucky was an awesome 2YO: 9 wins in 12 starts as well as two seconds and third. He's taken his time rounding into that sort of form in 2010, but just at the right time for harness racing's greatest trot. But how do you bet against Cassis? The bay colt by Cantab Hall out of the mare Dirty Martini won a stakes race for 3YOs at Goshen by 23 lengths. My heavens. The only blemish on his record of late was a narrow loss to He's a Demon in the Stanley Dancer on July 17, and that by a neck after a grueling trip.

If it's warm tomorrow night in Jersey (it might not be quite as sultry as it has been of late on the East Coast) then I'll make the following prediction: Whoever wins the Hambletonian will do so by setting a lifetime best mark.

I think Pilgrims Taj, though an outstanding horse, has been too inconsistent to warrant much attention for the likely low price. He's at 9-2 before the windows open.

Mystery Photo is an interesting choice at 10-1 but he had a perfect trip in his preliminary and still lost to Lucky Chucky by three-quarters of a length. If you think the early speed will be too much to maintain (and there's lots of it) then Mystery Photo has to be considered in your exotics.

When considering Muscle Massive (6-1) one should look back to June 12 and 25, when the son of Muscles Yankee had to work from outside posts. (He's in the sixth post here.) On the 12th he started from the five hole and took nearly half the race parked in order to move into the lead, which he held onto down the stretch. His race on the 25th was even more impressive: he made up 12 lengths from the first call to the final call and moved from eighth place to third in heavy traffic. He's another horse one must at least consider in such a free-for-all.

Jeez. I'm no closer to deciding now than I was when I started looking at the program two hours ago. I'll sleep on it and review it again over coffee tomorrow morning.

Hambo ... But first a little school ...

2010-08-05T07:30:00.000-07:00

July wasn't a very good luck here at The Amateur Handicapper. I haven't been calculating my ROI (I figure that's for the professional handicappers!) but I know I only picked a handful of winners throughout the month. I was close in a few others, but you know what they say about close only being worth something in horseshoes and hand grenades!

All of which is a preface to saying, Go Lucky Chucky! I had $10 on the colt's nose in the second Hambo prelim and he did not disappoint. In fact, with John Campbell in the sulky, Lucky Chucky picked 'em off like a fine Swiss watch, moving from fifth to third, hanging in third for a quarter, moving to second and then pouring it on down the stretch to win in 1:53.1.

I'll turn my attention to Saturday's Hambletonian (the last at the Meadowlands? God forbid.) tomorrow and Saturday morning, but I wanted to talk today about a book I've been reading called A Breed Apart: The Horses and the Players by Mike Helm. The book discusses thoroughbred racing but I find there are many parallels one can uncover between them and the standardbreds. And, in any case, if I limited myself to only books about standardbreds I'd quickly run out of reading material. Why don't folks write more books about harness racing? A rhetorical question, I suppose.

As soon as I took A Breed Apart out of the library I turned to the chapter on the professional gamblers of the sports, as is my wont. The chapter ("Winning Players: Playing the Odds") was all I'd hoped it would be. In it, Helm interviews septuagenarian Jack Matthewson, who bets a lot of money but only on horses to show. (I'll return to that point in a moment.)

But first, Matthewson lays down a truism: "Well, ya got to be patient in this game. Otherwise, ya get your brains beat out. If you wait for the right spot, you can beat a race. But you can't come out ahead playing all the races."

The same holds true betting the standarbreds. Every pro I've ever talked to says the same thing.

Matthewson's typical bet is between $200 and $500 to show. He demands at least a $2.80 return on a $2 bet to make his system pay off.

Writes Helm: "Matthewson typically waits for a sprint (six furlongs) with a lone front-runner or one that sets up for a closer and then watches the show and place action on the board. 'I prefer to play the speed because you don't have to worry about your horse getting in trouble,' Jack will explain. 'But a lot of times there's two or three speed horses that set it up for a closer to at least finish in the money. Since I'm normally show betting I don't have to win with a closer. He just has to do good enough to get up for third. What I like to look for in a closer at Golden Gate is a horse with an outside post, because he won't lose any ground having to come off the rail or get blocked. Generally, he'll get a clean trip coming down the backstretch a get into position to cut in and make his move at the turn."

I was intrigued by Matthewson's strategy because that's precisely how I started handicapping races when I was 17 at Northfield Park. I'd pick a stout horse and then bet my entire bankroll he (or she) would finish at least third. But that was long before I even tried to figure out pace or to look for speed in certain spots. I wasn't any better with that strategy than I was when I shifted first to exotics and then to betting winners.

Of course, there are significant differences between betting thoroughbreds vs. standardbreds, perhaps most notably in this example the fact that you'd never look for an outside post at the M or any other harness track. Thoroughbreds are more maneuverable and can save more ground around turns than can our trotting and pacing favorites.

I'm going to ask around, though, and see if I can't figure out if Matthewson's strategy might not be transferable to harness racing.

I welcome suggestions at bill.eichenberger@gmail.com

Good luck at the windows!

Second preliminary of the Hambo ...

2010-07-31T11:45:00.000-07:00

The second preliminary of the Hambletonian, the fifth race tonight at the Meadowlands, features the 9-5 favorite, Holiday Road. The $70,000 mile trot should be a competitive affair even though the favorite comes in on a five race winning streak and really hasn't been pushed very hard either.

He beat race mates Lucky Chucky and Mystery Photo in the finals of the Stanley Dancer by half a length and two lengths, respectively. The colt by Yankee Glide out of Jambo has a lifetime best of 1:52.4, clocked at the Big M, a considerably faster winning time than any of the competition.

At the end of the 2009 season, Lucky Chucky (7-2) would have been favored to win this race. He'd chalked up wins against Muscle Massive and Temple of Doom and was stout in his finale, a five length win in 1:56. 2. But this season has proven more challenging for the bay colt, a couple wins in qualifying followed by a fourth place finish in the Dickerson and a second place finish in the Stanley Dancer.

However, a closer look at the Stanley Dancer makes for some interesting speculation. Lucky Chucky was unlucky, drawing the eighth post and falling 12 lengths back at the first call. He was parked for half the race as he made way, moving up to seventh and then to fourth. He was closing the hardest of the field to pull within half a length in second place. Impressive.

This week, Lucky Chuck is a little luckier right off the bat: he will leave from the five post.

Mystery Photo (5-1) was the best of the rest in the Stanley Dancer, edging Break the Bank K for third. He's won this year in 1:54.1, so, a quality colt.

One other horse worth mentioning is He's A Demon. Lightly raced in 2009, the colt has won for of his last five races including an outstanding outing in the Stanley Dancer consolation win against Cassis and Coco Lindy in 1:53.1 While the seven post isn't an insurmountable obstacle at the Meadowlands, it does mean He's a Demon will need at least a little racing luck.

I think there's too much early speed in the race for He's a Demon to get a completely clean trip though he did come from the fifth post on July 17 to win at the Big M.

I look for Mystery Photo to set the early pace and for Holiday Road to look for a pocket trip. If John Campbell can clear traffic with Lucky Chucky, I think he'll be poised to make some noise during the second half of the race.

I'm betting $10 to win on Lucky Chucky.

Good luck at the windows!

Play It Again, Sam ... Hambo Eliminations ...

2010-07-30T14:44:00.000-07:00

In the first Hambletonian elimination on Saturday at the Meadowlands (Race 4) the early odds favor Muscle Massive, winner his last time out in the Stanley Dancer.

After a slow start to the season, the 9-5 favorite has rounded into form at the just the right time (that Jimmy Takter appears to know what he's doing!) and has won three and finished in the money twice in his last five races. He's benefited from benign inside posts and will start this race from the No. 1 post.

Pilgrims Taj (3-1) follows Muscle Massive as the second favorite. He's won two of five races in 2010 including a PA Sire Stakes back on June 10 against On the Tab, but he's fallen on hard times lately, finishing tenth and sixth in his last two tries including a DQ by 15 lengths.

Yannick Gingras will drive the 9-2 shot Hard Livin, who has won three of nine starts and been competitive (though not overwhelmingly so) against the likes of Cassis, Pilgrims Chuckie and On the Tab. His winning times simply aren't that impressive and they've slowed as he's moved deeper into the season (1:59.2, 1:56 and 1:55).

Speaking of Pilgrims Chuckie, he's well worth a look at 6-1 odds. And what I'm looking at is his performance in the Stanley Dancer when, from the eighth post, he trailed early by 10 lengths, had a hard time making any headway, was parked and then put up a brilliant final quarter to move up five places to third a length and three-quarters behind the winner, Muscle Massive.

Pilgrims Chuckie deserves better racing luck this time. And, in any case, he should be able to make a little of his own luck from the 5 hole. If Tim Tetrick gives him a clean trip, he should give Muscle Massive everything he can handle.

That's why I'm betting a $15 exacta box on the 1-5.

Good luck at the windows!

Bonkers for Yonkers ...

2010-07-27T13:10:00.000-07:00

The old sports adage about youngsters goes something like, The only good thing about freshmen is that they eventually become sophomores. In harness racing, 2YOs may show flashes of brilliance along with dramatic inconsistency. What we hope is that when those 2YOs turn into 3YOs, they become more consistently brilliant. That's the theory anyway.

But tonight's New Rochelle Trot, a New York Sire Stake for 3YO fillies features some mighty sketchy girls. Take Upside Blue Chip, the 8-5 favorite in the first division: she's crossed the finish line this year in anywhere from 2:02 to 1:58. Which fillie are we going to get tonight? But that's a tad unfair. After all, both of her 2:02s came in April qualifiers. She's been more steady since then and put together a string of eight races in the money including two wins, three places and three shows.

But Blue Chip's fastest winning time is a beatable 1:59.2. Neon Dream (5-1) has a best of 1:59; Ava De Vie of 1:59.2; and My Winning Way K (3-1) of 1:59.4.

This looks to be a four-horse race as a result. I'd like My Winning Way K if she weren't another Jeckyl and Hyde. She's won two of her last four going slowly (2:00.3 and 2:02) and finished the other two races in sixth and fourth, seven and 17 lengths back, respectively.

Upside Blue Chip has managed well enough from the outside (moving from the eighth post to finish second at Pocono Downs in early May) so her sixth post shouldn't be in the least prohibitive.

I don't trust the other fillies as far as I can throw them, so I'm betting $10 to win on Upside Blue Chip. I'm also going to box Upside Blue Chip and Neon Dream in an exacta for $5.

Good luck at the windows!

Mohawk, The Trot and more ...

2010-07-24T14:14:00.000-07:00

We've already discussed tonight's Maple Leaf Trot and expressed our undying (at least until after this race) love for Lucky Jim. But that's not the only high stakes race on the card tonight.

The ninth race is the $351,000 Armbro Flights Stakes for fillies and mares.

Buck I St Pat is the even money favorite to win the race though she's had a tough time of it lately against the boys, losing in her last two races to John Pauls Legacy, Enough Talk and Lucky Jim. But she comes into the Armbro fit as a fiddle, having won earlier in the year in times of 1:53.2 and 1:54.4 but chasing the boys to speedy times in the 1:52s and 1:51s. She certainly seems poised here and should enjoy her post position (1).

If Autumn Escape (9-2) gets out early and into cover (which seems likely) she might give Buck I St Pat all she can handle. The mare has won three races in a row including a season (and lifetime) best of 1:52.4 her last time out against race mates Southwind Wasabi (10-1) and Rose Run Keepsake (10-1). She has earned $366,000 in 63 races to Buck I St Pat's $1.5 million in 81 lifetime starts.

Southwind Wasabi has shown the speed to hang with Buck I St Pat and Autumn Escape (a 1:52.4 in 2009) but not this year: she's labored in 2010 to break 1:54 and has a best winning time of only 1:55.1.

Windsong Soprano (7-1) may be the best of the rest. She's won four of her last eight starts though she has fallen on hard times and out of the money in her last three. And when she looks around her at the start of the face she'll recognize five fillies and mares who have roughed her up of late.

I won't be the least surprised if Buck I St Pat goes wire to wire tonight. But I'm betting that Autumn Escape gets that early cover and out kicks St Pat down Mohawk's final stretch.

I'm putting $15 to win on Autumn Escape.

Good luck at the windows!

No rest for the wicked ... Maple Leaf Trot

2010-07-23T10:45:00.000-07:00

After a grueling (at least for this handicapper) weekend witnessed an upset in the Meadowlands Pace (One More Laugh) and an awesome performance in the Ben Franklin (Vintage Master) we're back again this weekend for more!

While the Meadowlands hosts preliminary races for the Stanley Dancer, the big money is being awarded north of the border at Mohawk Racetrack, where they'll feature on Saturday evening the $772,000 Maple Leaf Trot final.

The final will be a rematch of the last two Titan Cup battles between Enough Talk (5-2) and Lucky Jim (3-1), both won by the slimmest of margins by Enough Talk. The 6YO San Pail entered contention for the Maple Trot with a victory last week over Lanson and Reven Damour in a preliminary, the gelding's seventh win in 9 starts this season.

Enough Talk will leave from the first post position, Lucky Jim from the third and San Pail from the fourth, so post position shouldn't play too much of a part in Saturday's trot.

After his lost in the Titan Cup final, Lucky Jim returned to the track for a convincing qualifying run at the Meadowlands, winning by 11 lengths in 1:54.4. It was an interesting tune-up for the Maple Leaf Trot, which he'll race back on Lasix.

On June 29, San Pail had his only disastrous race of the year, breaking at the halfway point and finishing sixth, 34 lengths behind the winner. He stayed on stride in a subsequent qualifier (finishing second from the sixth post) and winning his Maple Leaf preliminary last week in 1:52.3.

Though San Pail has won almost twice as many races as Lucky Jim he's made $100,000 less than his rival. If you can judge a trotter by the company he keeps, the Amateur Handicapper is judging San Pail's company as less expensive than Lucky Jim's.

And though Lucky Jim has lost the last two head-to-head meeting against Enough Talk, he's actually made a few grand more in purse money than Enough Talk.

These are three interesting and evenly matched horses, but of the three I am inclined to wager on Lucky Jim. Enough Talk is lightly raced of late, entering into only two contests since the beginning of May. And San Pail is fractionally less talented than his two chief competitors.

If one of the leaders races for too long without cover, I like Lanson (10-1) perhaps to creep into a trifecta, but I honestly don't have a feeling about which horse that might be. So, my only wager will be $20 to win on Lucky Jim.

As Deter on Sprockets used to say ...

2010-07-16T16:00:00.001-07:00

I'm as excited as a little girl!

Tomorrow can't come soon enough. More precisely, tomorrow night can't come soon enough.

The $1 million Meadowlands Pace is considered by many the premier harness racing event in North America each year. (I'm old fashioned and live half an hour away from the Delaware County Fairgrounds, so I prefer the Little Brown Jug.)

But what a race we have on our hands come Saturday.

Yesterday, we discussed the stupid great speed we'll watch go off, what with half a dozen horses who run sub-1:49s as routinely as the rest of us drink our morning coffee.

I spent this morning in a pleasant conversation with Columbus (Ohio) trainer Virgil Morgan and after we dispensed with business I asked him, as I asked Jimmy Takter the day before, Who do you like on Saturday.

I don't have a horse in that race, Morgan told me, but it's gonna be a great one.

I'm still shaking my head at the winning time clocked by Rock N Roll Heaven, a record-setting 1:47.3. (And having watched the replay again this morning I'm also astounded at One More Laugh's finish. Lord, he was closing ground to finish in 1:47.4!)

I asked Virgil how much it took out of a horse to go 1:47.3 and whether or not burning up such speed would have an impact a week later.

They only have so many of those marks in 'em, he said, so you want to use them up at the right time. It's awfully hard to keep 'em razor sharp week in and week out. Having said that, I still think Rock N Roll Heaven is a pretty nice horse.

A prediction?

Nope.

I still have allegiance to Sportswriter, winner of the North America Cup and a colt who paced uncovered for most of the way in a fourth place finish in his preliminary. (As the fastest of the three fourth place finishers Sportswriter qualified for the final.) In an interview immediately after the race, his driver Mark MacDonald said Sportswriter didn't ship well and was suffering the week before the preliminary from heat exhaustion. He's been his old spunky self training for the final.

But from the 10 hole? My loyalty only goes so far!

Tomorrow I'll get down to brass tacks, collating all the information I can get my hands on before I decide how to play it at the windows.

Good luck to you at yours.

A cool million ...

2010-07-15T13:47:00.000-07:00

Yes, there are a few stakes races and a couple of decent purses between today and Saturday, but I just couldn't resist logging onto to Trackmaster and downloading the program for the $1 million Meadowlands Pace. I want to sip on the 14 races like one would a vintage wine, slowly, savoring every note, every wisp of a flavor, every hint of cherries and mud. After all, the Meadowlands Pace is simply the grand jewel on a night when the track will give away another $1.3885 million in the other 13 races! We've got some homework to do!

The Amateur Handicapper was on a telephone call this morning with trainer Jimmy Takter (on an unrelated matter) but naturally couldn't resist asking at the end, Who do you like on Saturday?

To which the wily harnessman replied, I like my horse.

His horse is Rockin Image (3-1) with Yannick Gingras in the bike.

The Amateur Handicapper then asked Takter about Sportswriter (6-1), a stout fellow who let us cash a nice ticket in the North America Cup a few weeks ago.

The horse drew a tough post, Takter said, but he's got the speed. In fact, Takter continued, There's going to be so much speed on Saturday night and with a million dollars on the line everybody is going to be trying.

Sounds to the Amateur Handicapper as a recipe for razzle dazzle.

You want speed? Try out these times for speed: Kyle Major (15-1) crossed the finish line in 1:48.4 in his preliminary and still finished third by a whopping six lengths. His lifetime best in a win is 1:50 at the Meadowlands.

Takter's horse, Rockin Image (3-1) won his Meadowlands Pace preliminary in a snail-like (if you compare it the other preliminary!) 1:48.4, two-fifths of a second off his personal best.

Rock N Roll Heaven (5-2) is the horse everyone is buzzing about after his ridonculous winning time last week of 1:47.3, the fastest ever time in a Pace preliminary at the Meadowlands. He's capable of a serious time under 1:50 on any given night.

Valentino (15-1) finished third in his preliminary by crossing the line in 1:48. His lifetime best in a winning effort is 1:49.3. He's spent considerably more time north of 1:50 than south of it, hence his long odds.

I'm Gorgeous (12-1) is another good horse in a stacked field. And he might be getting better at just the right time. His lifetime best of 1:50 was set recently at the Meadowlands and was followed by second place finish (to Rockin Image) in 1:49.1. Trainer George Teague Jr. said we haven't seen the best of this colt yet.

Demarvelous (12-1) snuck into the final after preliminary winner OK Commander came up lame and was scratched. He's been carried to a pair of 1:49s (finishing fourth and fifth, respectively) but has a worthy personal best time in a win of 1:50.2.

Nova Artist (15-1) may have the longest odds of any horse this year to cross the wire second in 1:48.3! And this is a horse that began the season at 1:57. What a difference two and half months make.

One More Laugh (9-2) would probably have much better odds if he wasn't firing from the eighth post position. The bay gelding by McCardle out of Fancy Creek Funny finished second to Rocknroll Heaven in the preliminary in a time of 1:47.4. That came after a disappointing finish (seventh) in the North America Cup. He's been sub 1:50 for three consecutive races.

Fred and Ginger (10-1) would surely be at 4-1 or 5-1 were it not for his dismal post (9). The colt finished second to OK Commander in the preliminary in a smoking time of 1:47.4, closing from third more than two lengths off to lose by a neck. He's been the fastest of the field the most this season, which is why he's finished in the money in 8 of his 9 races.

Our favorite horse, Sportswriter (6-1), rounds out the field in the tenth post position. He won the North America Cup on June 26 in convincing fashion, taking the lead at the second call and never looking back. In 2009, Sportswriter won 8 of 9 races. He took awhile to warm up in 2010 but has raced three in a row sub-1:49.

We'll take a more thorough look at this race tomorrow, but can you imagine how exciting it's going to be with so many horses capable of such speed?

Sire Stake at Balmoral Park ...

2010-07-14T11:34:00.000-07:00

Balmoral Park outside of Chicago will host a Filly Stake for 3YO trotters in two races of $19,700.

In the first stake race (seventh on the card) Action-Broadway opened the morning line as the 9-5 favorite. The filly by Broadway Hall out of Photo With Molly has struggled of late with lameness (June 26) but returned on July 7 to trounce the competition at the Meadows by more than 5 lengths. She set a lifetime best of 1:52.4 in early June at Mohawk and won in early July in 1:55.3.

Southern Maebelle (3-1) should be right on Action-Broadway's tail: The filly has won three of her last four races at Balmoral Park albeit in considerably slower fashion -- between 1:57.1 and 1:59 -- than Action-Broadway.

Escrow Blue Chip (9-2) is another of the fillies who should figure in the action at the race's conclusion: she has finished in the money in four of her previous five races (a win and three second place finishes). But when she's bad, she's awful, witness two recent eighth place finishes by more than 16 lengths.

The only thing mitigating against a decisive Action-Broadway win is her lousy post position: 8. At Balmoral Park so far this season only 9 percent of starters from that unlucky post have crossed the finish line first. It doesn't help, either, that Action-Broadway much prefers to give up ground early and then charge home, raising the risks she'll have to work through traffic.

Which is why I'm betting $10 to win on Southern Maebelle, a horse that loves early speed and should benefit from a benign post position (3). The only horse to Maebelle's left that could park her around the first turn is Vapor Girl (8-1), winner of three out of five races in 2010 and possessed of out-of-the-gate quicks.

It will be interesting to see if Brett Miller shoots for the lead right away at the risk of getting double-parked early or if he tucks his filly in and waits for an opening later in the race.

Either way, I like Southern Maebelle to have a cleaner trip for the win.

Good luck at the windows!

Town Pro Racing Series at Mohawk

2010-07-13T12:36:00.000-07:00

The Amateur Handicapper has been taking his lumps of late and yesterday was no exception. He liked Photo Charm and 'threw out' Offbroadway De Vie. Now, Photo Charm was not a dud exactly, though she didn't pay out on my win bet having finished second. Offbroadway De Vie, on the other hand, finished first and wrecked my dollar trifecta in the process. The thing is, Offbroadway had only one race this year, not enough to go on to feel certain about backing her. But she was (and is) a good enough horse to win a high priced stake race and that's just what she did.

But that was yesterday's race and the beauty of handicapping during stake season is that there is always tomorrow. Today is tomorrow, and Mohawk Racetrack is offering $60,000 to the lucky fillies at the top of the leader board in the sixth race (9:10 p.m.), the Finals of the Town Pro Racing Series for 3YO fillies who are non-winners of 2 races lifetime or $10,000 as of March 31.

The two best (and hottest) horses in the field have drawn unenviable post positions: Rockn Highland (7-2) will start from the ninth post; Rebeka Bayama (9-2) from the seventh. This may make quite a difference.

Rockn Highland won her preliminary on July 6 from the third post position and had a relatively clean trip to win in 1:52. She was parked only for the second call when she made her move for the lead. She's a horse who likes to go backwards before she moves forward, which is a concern in such a crowded field.

Rebeka Bayama won both of her preliminary races handily coming from the fourth and fifth post positions, respectively. One of her most lackluster races of the year came on April 30, when she left from the nine post and never challenged. She did, however, win from the nine post on June 10 though she was parked for half the race doing it. Her lifetime best is three-fifths of a second slower than Rockn Highland's 1:52.

Midtown (7-1) is a fascinating fillie. She's lost to (or at least finished behind) six of the 10 horses in the field. But last week she was stellar in her preliminary, defeating Keene Supreme by a neck in 1:51.4. Nothing in her past 10 races suggested she was up to such feats of speed. She was a consistent 1:53 to 1:55 pacer who'd been in with the best and come up short.

Just a week earlier, on June 29, Keene Supreme (6-1) beat Northwest Hanover and Straight N Great by nearly two lengths with Midtown in sixth place seven lengths back.

One must take Seriously (5-1) seriously, though she's recently been more comfortable as a bride's maid than as a bride. (Guess that goes for all the horses in the race, more or less.) On May 20, Seriously won a race in 1:52.1, so she has the speed and stamina to compete here. But she's been scratched twice this season with a lingering illness. She did win her first qualifier of the year and follow that triumph with three straight victories. In two of her wins, she closed from fifth and eighth in the final quarter to pull it out. I'd feel more sanguine about Seriously if she'd shown the early speed to take full advantage of her post position 3.

It's likely none of the three horses closest to the rail will want the lead. Midtown likes to drift back, get settled in, and then make a move during the second half of a race. Straight N Great is an odd horse in that she has given up the lead when she's been on the rail but has roared to it from the nine and seven posts.

This race is a perfect handicapping storm. The best horses are the furthest out. Meanwhile, above average (for the field) horses have enviable post position. Something's gotta give.

I keep returning to Seriously, though I don't know why exactly. For her three wins in a row to start the season? For her marginally favorable post position (3)? For her insistence this season of finishing every race in the money? Neither Midtown nor Straight N Great look for the lead early in races, which opens the door for Seriously to grab it and dare every one else to chase. (Look to Lets Go Get Em to challenge for the lead out of the gate.)

But will Seriously hold off the challenges no doubt coming by the half or three-quarters mark from Rebeka Bayama, Rockn Highland or Keene Supreme? That is the question.

What a mind-boggling race to handicap. No result would entirely surprise me. I'm betting $5 to win on Seriously.

Good luck at the windows!

W.N. Reynolds Memorial Stake

2010-07-12T12:46:00.000-07:00

The 3YO fillies are on parade tonight at Pocono in three divisions of the W.N. Reynolds Memorial Stake No. 56

The first division, due to go off at 10:11 p.m., features the fast fillie Photo Charm, who began the day as the 3-1 favorite. Photo Charm sports a lifetime best of 1:55.3 on May 27. She has won three of her last four races in convincing fashion (by 2, 6 and 3 lengths) and finished second once. Photo Charm will begin from the seventh post. She has both won from as far out as the eighth post and had one of her worst races from outside, too. The horses outside with Photo Charm have not demonstrated any sort of meaningful early speed, however, which should give the favorite a clear shot at the leaders out of the gate.

Offbroadway De Vie (7-2) has race only once this year and finished fourth to Pictures of Millie though one can hardly blame De Vie for losing to a fillie who ran in 1:55.3. (Of course, that's exactly the time Photo Charm trotted in to set her lifetime mark. De Vie may need another race or two for seasoning before she can be considered in this sort of company.

Agenda Tom Ridge (4-1) has raced inconsistently in 2010, starting the year off a house afire and winning four of five starts from April 8 through May 10. Her next three starts were out of the money and included a loss by 16 lengths after an early break. She's rated just ahead of Pearly Princess (9-2) though the latter fillie beat the former on April 22.

I am as impressed with Photo Charm as I am unimpressed with Offbroadway De Vie. And it's nice after betting a string of even money horses to have one that may go off at or near the opening line of 3-1.

So it's $10 to win on Photo Charm for this handicapper. And a $1 trifecta key with Photo Charm over Pearly Princess and Agenda Tom Ridge.

Good luck at the windows!

Yonkers Trot, Redux ...

2010-07-11T16:03:00.001-07:00

Ok, so the Amateur Handicapper didn't exactly make a killing betting on the Yonkers Trot last night. Unless you count betting $15 and getting back $17.25 a killing. As my old friend Matt would always tell me after a kiss-your-sister result, It beats losing. And assuredly it does.

Doesn't help the old ROI any, that's for sure.

And in any case, with three horses coupled as the 6-5 favorite it wasn't like we stood much of a chance to make money. And it wasn't as if the Amateur Handicapper's skills (such as they are) were put to very much of a test. We looked at the eight trotters in the race and decided that the coupling of Senor Glide with On the Tab and Hard Livin was going to be nearly impossible to beat.

The Amateur Handicapper kind of cheated in telling the blogosphere that he was going to put $15 to win on the trio of 1 horses. Had he been more precise, he would have foretold -- and, yes, this is the worst sort of 20/20 hindsight -- a victory by On the Tab, a favored horse at this blog as he's moved through the PA sire stakes season. It would have helped our street cred to have called it more specifically.

But had we taken a moment to consider, we'd have also bet an exacta featuring the 1 coupling with a horse we loved to finish second, Take My Picture, who had finished second in 6 of 9 races before last night and routinely been carried (or raced) to 1:54 times. Had we so proceeded, our $2.25 windfall (yes, spent all in one place!) would have been much more significant, as the exacta in question ended up paying $8.90 on a $2 bet.

Just as Tom Hanks rightly said, There is no crying in baseball, so, too, does the Amateur Handicapper frown on post-race whining and wringing of hands. In any case, Yonkers is going to start throwing money around (to the tune of $200,000) at its 3YO colts and geldings and so is the Meadows (to the tune of $220,000) on its 2YO colts and geldings.

No time for complaining, only for handicapping.

Yonkers Trot ($573,770)

2010-07-10T12:59:00.000-07:00

The great thing about harness handicapping from early June through mid-October is that there is so much of it. Harness racing, that is.

Today is one of those days where there are big money races almost anywhere you look: the Meadowlands, as per usual, but also at Georgian Downs, Buffalo Raceway, Hoosier Park and Pocono Downs. Sire stakes are the norm and a couple million dollars are at stake. (Look at the featured races over at the U.S. Trotting Web site and you'd never know that the sport faces financial difficulties.)

But tonight's biggest race, by a wide margin, is the $573,770 Yonkers Trot for 3YOs.

The Trot field is led by a three-horse coupling at odds of 6-5 of Senor Glide, On the Tab and Hard Livin. The trio of colts has combined 14 wins in 54 lifetimes starts for more than $725,000.

The No. 1 coupling will be challenged by the coupling of Big Stick Lindy and Shaq is Back at 3-1. That duo has even more impressive credentials with a combined 13 wins in 38 starts for $523,000.

But the odds have been set on the basis of 'what have you done for me lately,' and in last week's prelim it was Hard Livin and On the Tab triumphing over Shaq is back in third and Big Stick Lindy fourth.

All five of the favorites are capable of trotting a mile in 1:56 but most have been comfortable this season at 1:58 or 1:59. Senor Glide won last week in 1:58.4 by a head over Take My Picture.

Speaking of Take My Picture, the bay gelding by Classic Photo out of Habit's Lady has been a bridesmaid all season long finishing second in 6 of 9 races. Was Take My Picture carried to four 1:54 finishes or does the gelding have the ability to produce a race that fast on his own? (In three of those four races he relinquished the lead in the final quarter.)

One mustn't overlook Carnegie (4-1) while assessing the Yonkers Trot. Though his best winning time is 1:58.3 at Tioga Downs Carnegie has won two of four and finished third twice in his last four races.

There is no place and no show wagering, so those among us (the Amateur Handicapper included) who favor win bets can proceed as usual. And that means taking the trio of No. 1 horses to win for $15.

Good luck at the windows!

Summer Time Pacing Series @ Mohawk (Final)

2010-07-09T08:49:00.000-07:00

A shout out to George Gershwin by way of introducing the Summer Time Pacing Series Final at Mohawk:

Summertime,
And the livin' is easy
Fish are jumpin'
And the cotton is high

Oh, Your daddy's rich
And your mamma's good lookin'
So hush little baby
Don't you cry

The seventh race at Mohawk (scheduled to go off at 9:22 p.m.) features 3YO colts and geldings including the undefeated Dalhousie Dave by Astreos out of My Precious Katie. The bay gelding is a perfect 5 for 5 in his first season of racing including a win last week by a neck in a preliminary heat of the Summer Time Pacing Series in a lifetime best 1:52.1.

Dave is the model of consistency, running in 1:53 (give or take a fifth) for four consecutive races before hitting 1:52.1 on July 2. He's won from nearly every conceivable post position including the 7, 8 and 9 holes as well as the 1 and 2. He has early speed to burn and stamina that'll knock your socks off. (He's been parked, sometimes for half or even three quarters of a race in four of his five victories.)

Huzzah! Nice horse.

The odds maker figures Outrageous Art (5-2) will provide Dalhousie Dave with the gamblers' second choice though I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the son of Artsplace out of Righteous Renee go off tonight as the favorite. After all, the colt not only has pedigree, but also has won 6 of 7 races this year for a cool $40,000. He, too, has won from as far out as posts 8 and 9 and sports two finishes sub 1:52 -- 1:51.4 and 1:51.1 in his two previous Summer Time heats.

Classic Rock NRoll and S N P Bluechip (9-2) will be coupled. Both horses have shown flashes of brilliance in a pair of 1:52 lifetime bests. Both horses have crossed the line in under 1:52 but the Amateur Handicapper feels they were carried to those times by faster and more earnest horses.

Touch the Rock (5-1) has the fastest winning time of any horse in the race at 1:50.4 but he was scratched on July 2 due to an illness and is also less consistent than the favorites. He has tenth and seventh place finishes in two of his last three races. He qualified for the final by coming in second to Classic Rock NRoll two weeks ago in a time of 1:52.4. Dreamlands Art (5-1) is nearly a carbon copy of Touch the Rock with perhaps a little more consistency thrown in with a similar lifetime best of 1:51 flat.

This is a fascinating race and I will enjoy watching it tonight on my computer screen regardless of the outcome. Honestly, any one of the six horses mentioned above could win the race tonight. When I look at pace and stamina, I envision a duel between Dahlouise Dave and Outrageous Art. Recent form, too, suggests a duel between the top two favorites. But what makes this race so difficult to handicap is the talent in the middle of the pack. Classic Rock NRoll and S N P Bluechip are in post positions 1 and 10, respectively. Will the 1 horse shoot out to the lead and take his teammate with him in the pocket? If that happens it almost guarantees that the favorites will have to pace some or even most of the race parked one or even two wide.

But as we mentioned, Dalhousie Dave is nonplussed by covering extra ground. And in any case, he may just be fast enough on the draw (or out of the gate) to take the lead from post position 2, with Outrageous Art following close on his heels.

My wild cards are Touch the Rock and Dreamlands Art. The latter has proven his ability to race and win at or below the 1:51 mark. But he's been off his game in the last three weeks. The former has already lost recently to Outrageous Art.

I'm going to bet $10 to win on Outrageous Art as he puts a blemish on Dalhousie Dave's perfect season.

Stepping back in time at Scarborough Downs

2010-07-08T08:47:00.000-07:00

I want to visit Scarborough Downs in the state of Maine. And not only because it's likely to be a few degrees cooler up north than it is here in the Midwest. I want to visit Scarborough to step back in time in harness racing's past when breaking the 2-minute mile was an amazing feat as opposed to a routine daily occurrence. Oh, sure, the trotters and pacers run faster (much faster) at the Meadowlands and at Yonkers and the Meadows, but where else in North America can you find a race featuring a horse that has run races in a range from 2:06 to 2:30?

Reminds me of the old joke I used to tell on myself about betting on a horse that went off at 10 to 1 and got in at a quarter after five!

I am not being critical here. Far from it. Harness racing, in order to be healthy, needs a bottom, middle and top. Not every standardbred can race at the Meadowlands. Some by necessity must race at places like Scarborough and my home track, Scioto Downs.

But handicapping races at Scarborough -- specfically tonight's Maine Standardbreds Breeders Stakes for 3YO colts and geldings -- can be quite a challenge.

Take the 10th race, for instance. Willin Dylan (9-5) is the prohibitive favorite, but which version of the gelding will show up, the winner of a race on June 29 in a lifetime best of 2:03.3 or the horse who broke stride and finished 14 lengths back on June 14 in a loping time of 2:12?

You see the problems we will encounter?

Roadshow Vic (5-2) is another horse who should compete for first, the winner of a qualifier on June 14 but a loser by five lengths to Willin Dylan last week. But this is only Vic's second race of the 2010 season. Is he just now rounding into shape? After all, he won 4 of 8 starts in 2009 for an impressive $45,000 and change. However, his best time in those four victories was 2:07. He isn't afraid to win, but does he have the speed and stamina to compete with Willin Dylan?

Edgar (9-2) has a resume similar to Roadshow Vic: He won 3 of 11 races last year (and finished second or third another four times) and earned $26,000 but has a career winning best time of only 2:09.2.

Willin Dylan has nice early speed. In his 2:03.1 win last week he shot from the fifth post position to first and led the rest of the way. He's a spot further out in the sixth post tonight but shouldn't have any problem moving towards the lead again. (It should be interesting to see whether or not Roadshow Vic will challenge Willin Dylan for the lead and, perhaps, keep his rival parked around the first turn.)

I enjoyed perusing the program from Scarborough and strolling down memory lane. (Dan Patch, where are you when we need you?) But I'm not inclined to do anything more than nibble on Roadshow Vic, placing $5 on his nose.

Good luck at the windows!

Here come the judge!

2010-07-07T08:36:00.000-07:00

Judge Moore, that is. And the Judge Moore W.N. Reynolds Memorial trots tonight at Pocono Downs for 3YO colts and geldings.

In the first division, scheduled to go off at around 7:20, Texas Ridge is the morning line favorite at 3-1. The bay colt by Tom Ridge out of Texas Winner has yet to win this season though the horse has lowered his times in the past five weeks from 2:00 to a trio of 1:56 (and change) finishes. After winning a qualifying race on June 16, Texas Ridge failed to hold the lead in a race on June 26, fading to third, three lengths behind promising classmates Red Light and Hard Livin.

R Sam (7-2) looks the likeliest to provide Texas Ridge with a challenge, having finished in the money in 9 of 10 races this year including five wins. At one point between March 18 and May 6, the bay colt won 4 of 5 races and set a lifetime (and field best) winning time of 1:56. Though he's fallen on hard times of late, R Sam really is the class of the first division.

Right behind R Sam in the area of class is Folk Tail at 4-1. The brown gelding by Conway Hall out of Fairy Tail has won two of his last four races including a lifetime best 1:56.1 on June 25 to defeat Big Stick Lindy by a nose. He's already won twice this year from post position 1 and should give R Sam everything he can handle.

Baximum is an attractive horse, too, especially at odds of 9-2. After winning impressively on June 4 over On the Tab, Baximum got in a little over his head against Pilgrim's Chuckie and Cassis, finishing fifth in two races while managing to cross the finish line in 1:54.4 and 1:55, respectively. I think he'll appreciate the modest step down in class here.

I'm excited by this race because I don't care at all for the favorite, Texas Ridge. As a consequence, I'm going to bet $10 to win on Baximum and play a $1 trifecta box on Baximum, Folk Tail and R Sam.

Good luck at the windows!

Of Guinness and handicapping ...

2010-07-05T13:16:00.000-07:00

When last we checked in on horse racing devotee Bill Barich (Laughing in the Hills, A Fine Place to Daydream) he was ensconced in his favorite pub drinking a pint of Guinness and poring over the Racing Post's past performance section in order to handicap the Desert Orchid Chase.

Shortly there after and in only the slightest way of an explanation, Barich writes of his proclivity to wager on horses, "A winning bet confirms a man's genius and elevates his spirits. I never told Imelda (his Irish love) about my losses; only about my scores, of course, and if I needed another reason to feel affection for her, which I didn't, it would be that she never asks how I'm doing at the track. Besides, her interest in racing is confined to the elegance of the horses and the beautiful places where they run, a scene that hasn't changed much since Degas painted it at Longchamp."

After answering the question, Why? Barich plunges back into the question all amateur handicappers want the answer to: How?

In a section about John P. McManus, Barich charts Ireland's most prominent horse owner's rise: "(He) wasn't always a consummate pro. He shed some blood in the betting ring, particularly as a young man, when he scratched his itch too feverishly. Lacking the discipline to hold off when his luck ran cold, he once advised some English bookmaking firms that if they extended any more credit, they did so 'at their own peril.' But as the years passed he gained an icy control over himself, never chasing his losses or trying to get even on the last race. He developed a complex set of guiding principles and could lay them out as precisely as any textbook. The going is the most important thing. Set out to make a point or two over the odds and go in with two fists. Above all, Beware of certainties."

A Fine Place to Daydream ...

2010-07-04T14:41:00.000-07:00

Bill Barich is one of America's great writers on horse racing, the author of the acclaimed Laughing in the Hills, named one of the 10 best sports books ever over at amazon.com. The amateur handicapper recently caught up with Barich's most recent book, A Fine Place to Daydream, which is subtitled Racehorses, Romance and the Irish. Never mind that Barich's book is about thoroughbred horses and, even more exotic, thoroughbreds who jump hedges as opposed to running 'flat' races, his is nevertheless a worthwhile guide for the gambler in any sport.

In the first chapter, Barich writes about handicapping a race called The Desert Orchid, which he planned to watch down at his neighborhood pub one fine Sunday afternoon:

"My weekends were a happy shambles now that I'd accepted I was hooked and had to wrap my life around the races. Like Moscow Flyer, I needed to concentrate and focus. The process was akin to runic divination, an attempt to break a secret code and reap the reward of untold riches. I began with the Racing Post's form charts and circled recent winners who'd it 'impressively' or 'comfortably' -- an evident plus, yet one it's easy to miss if you skip the fine print. Next, I turned to the Selection Box to check on the experts' views, and then read the trainers' comments about their horses, an exercise in filtering out the half-truths from the bald-faced lies."

"I ordered my usual pint of stout and prepapred to be transported. Only over a beer can I pick the winner of a televised race, or so I'd come to believe. The Guinness lifts me into a state I'd describe as ' fuzzy clarity.' I'm relaxed and yet able to address the Post with a more critical eye. Reading the paper again, I saw tiny filaments of meaning that my completely sober , less perceptive self had missed. Attractive horses revealed their limitations, while others I'd glided over gained new resonance. Thus enlightened, I thought Erdredon Bleu couldn't lose, even though he carried twenty-eight pounds more than the other four entries."

Guinness for handicapping. Now that's something I never considered! I'll have to try it out sometime!

Titan Cup Final at the Meadowlands tonight ...

2010-07-03T10:59:00.000-07:00

Lucky Jim is either an academic in post-World War II England or the favorite of tonight's Titan Cup Final at the Meadowlands. This blog being The Amateur Handicapper, the latter is more likely than the former, though The Amateur Handicapper does have a soft spot for English satire, especially as practiced by Kingsley Amis. (Evelyn Waugh, too.)

The $235,750 race is a Free For All and boasts of field of 10 horses between the ages of 4 and 8. Lucky Jim (5-2) has been a lucky bet for handicappers for four years now, a span during which he's won 23 of 46 races and amassed a small fortune ($1.37 million) in purse money. He set his lifetime mark of 1:50.1 as a 4YO and followed that up on April 16 with a season best 1:51.1. Quite simply, the horse can trot.

Arch Madness (3-1) is a stout bay gelding by Balanced Image out of Armbro Archer, the winner of $2.39 million over more than four seasons including two impressive wins on May 15 and June 8 by 4 and a half and 5 and quarter lengths respectively. He matched a lifetime best at Pocono Downs this year of 1:51, an even more impressive trip when one considers Arch Madness' post position (8) and the fact that he raced parked for the first quarter before moving into the lead and never looking back. He did finish third the last time out to Enough Talk and Lucky Jim.

The odds maker wasn't all that impressed with Enough Talk (4-1) and set the 7YO gelding's morning odds at third best. He's had an odd season, opening with two wins, two places and a show before getting trounced in a trio of qualifying runs on May 10. He didn't return to the track until last week when he won the Titan Prep with Ron Pierce in the sulky.

Buck I St Pat (6-1) is an interesting horse at longer odds: He ran fourth in the Titan Prep but hit the tape at 1:51.3. Carried to the time or rounding into form? A good question, that. One has to seriously consider a horse like Buck I St Pat, especially in exotic bets, given that he's been first, second or third in 61 of 79 races including 43 wins.

Of course, Buck I St Pat is also quite capable of losing to horse like the 15-1 shot Corleone Kosmos or the 10-1 shot Likeabatoutahell.

As a former English major, I can hardly pass up a horse named after one of my favorite books, and so it is I'll be betting $10 on Lucky Jim to win.

Good luck at the windows!

And now for the boys tonight @ The Meadowlands

2010-07-02T07:44:00.000-07:00

The Meadowlands will host the $80,900 Dickerson Cup Historic Series No. 42 trot for 3YO colts and geldings tonight.

The aptly named (at least for this weekend) Holiday Road begins the day as the 9-5 favorite, which is, frankly, something a head-scratcher. Yes, the horse won 3 of 6 races in 2009 and earned more than $310,000. But Holiday Road has not raced competitively this year and has a season-best 1:54.2 in three qualifiers. Of course, we can't (or at least shouldn't) judge a horse solely by his fastest time. After all, Holiday Road has won those three qualifiers by an astounding 27 and a quarter lengths. The colt by Yankee Glide out of Jambo (driven by Brian Sears) does not like to see horses in front of him. He hasn't trailed this year. He doesn't even like horses close to him.

But Holiday Road is likely to have one or two horses hanging right with him tonight. The three-horse No. 1 entry (2-1) could provide at least two: All Lucky Chucky did in 2009 was win 9 of 12 races (and finish in the money in the other three) for more than $667,000. Lucky Chucky's best time of 1:55 is off that of Holiday Road's. He, too, loves to race at the front. In his two qualifying races (which he won by more than 12 lengths, combined) he's spent only two fraction out of the lead (and that in second about to take the lead).

Coco Lindy (1a) spent much of 2009 in the winner's circle (6 of 8) albeit at lower prices than Lucky Chucky. He earned more than 100,000. If a horse can be impressive in losing by four lengths, Coco Lindy was just that a week ago when he lost to Manningly but crossed the wire second in 1:53.4. Huzzah!

Pilgrims Chuckie (1b) may be the best of the three-horse entry, having won on June 14 (against the talented Cassis) in 1:53. He's always around the money (9 out of 14 lifetime) but prefers second place to first by a wide margin.

Muscle Massive (7-2) is another fascinating horse: he's won 2 of 4 this year including a superb effort on June 4 of 1:53.3. That time is the second fastest of all the entrants. Of course, nothing is ever clear cut in handicapping and so, too, does Muscle Massive have his warts: he's finished behind several of the horses he'll be facing tonight including Coco Lindy, Temple of Doom and Lucky Chucky.

Speaking of Temple of Doom (6-1) ... Though he has a life-time fastest of 1:54.3 what we have here is another horse (like Pilgrims Chuckie) who would just as soon finish second (6 times) or third (4 times) than first (just once in 16 tries).

Holiday Road should roar out to the lead from his No. 3 post position, followed closely by Lucky Chucky, another horse with stout early speed. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see all three of the 1 horses fire out to or close to the lead. Muscle Massive prefers to stalk a bit but won't want to get too far off the lead. He's dicey coming from the sixth post.

Earlier this week I picked Jezzy to win the Acorn Stakes in part because he was entered with two other capable horses and in part because I'm morally opposed to betting on 2YOs at even money. It worked out: Jezzy did, in fact, win and paid $5.60 to do so.

I'm tempted here to do the same thing, to bet on three pretty solid 1 horses. But then I look at Holiday Road and think, Wow, he's a strong cup of coffee. I'm going to play contrarian again, but only to dip a toe in the pool: I'm betting $5 to win on Lucky Chucky, et al.

More historic races, this time @ The Meadowlands

2010-07-01T15:16:00.001-07:00

The Meadowlands will host the Ladyship Stake Historic Series No. 42 for 3YO fillies tomorrow evening. But don't be late because the $77,700 race opens the card at 7 p.m. on the dot. In fact, show up early and do your DD (due diligence) because the race should be hotly contested.

BJ's Mayreau is the early 2-1 favorite, a 3YO who didn't race as a 2YO and opened this season with a pair of wins in convincing fashion (8 and 2 lengths, respectively). Her last two races have been faster (from 1:53 and 1:52 to 1:52.1 and 1:51.1) but have earned her only fourth place money. She was defeated by two of the best early season fillies: Put On a Show and Naughtytiltheend, so no real shame there.

Best Boss (5-2) has the best chance of competing for the win against BJ's Mayeau. Boss was the winner of 4 out of 6 races as a sophomore including three in a row in the Kentucky Sire Stakes. She's taken a full five weeks (and four qualifiers) to round into shape, moving from late May times at or near 1:56 to a pair of 1:52 races including a third place finish on June 22 behind Full Picture and Be Intensified.

JK Sure I Can might better be named JK I Don't Mind Finishing Seventh sometimes. But that's probably not fair. JK has been up against the hands down star of the young season in Dancinwiththestarz and Put On a Show. She's rarely out of the 1:53 and change range (and never below it), which means she may contest for show money without threatening either of the two favorites.

Ditto Court Stenographer at 9-2. Court Stenographer faced BJ's Mayreau on May 21 and though she moved up from seventh to fourth (and was parked for half the race) she never seriously challenged the leader.

If BJ's Mayreau stays at 2-1 (or better) I'd plunk down $10 to win on her. But if she falls to even money (or worse) I'm going to bet a $5 box with Best Boss.

Good luck at the windows!

Acorn Stake Historic Series, No. 43 !

2010-06-30T11:08:00.001-07:00

The best thing about freshman, the old saying has it, is that they eventually become sophomores. And in another old saying, to paraphrase, even a blind handicapper finds the odd Acorn Stake (Historic Series) No. 43 for 2YO fillies tonight at the Meadowlands.

The race features some familiar young faces including Global Desire (6-5), winner last week impressively of the New Jersey Sire Stake for 2YO fillies. She beat her nearest competitor (Caitir) by seven lengths and cruised to a lifetime best of 1:57.1.

The only blemish on Global Desire's fledgling career was a June 10 whupping by Electra Blue Chip in a glacial 2:02. Electra Blue Chip (3-1) is one of four No. 1 horses at 3-1 odds. The others include: 1a Jezzy, 1b Medusa Blue Chip and 1c Epona Blue Chip. (That's one way to figure out which of your blue chips is actually a blue chip!)

Jezzy won a qualifier last week by more than 13 lengths in a sporting 1:59, a come down from her previous week's qualifying margin of 9 lengths in 1:58.2. With so little information upon which to base one's handicapping, Jezzy has shown the speed to compete at a global level.

Medusa Blue Chip won her last qualifying race by a length in 2:01. Epona Blue Chip went through the motions of racing on June 17, coasting to a fourth place finishing 2:03.3.

Ladylike Volo has steadily improved in her three trips this year, from a season-opening 2:08 to a 2:00.4 last week.

Fandango Hanover (8-1) rounds out the likely suspects and appears poised to challenge Global Desire and Jezzy.

Look, these 2YOs can be a blast to watch. But they can also be temperamental and unpredictable. I'm not sure I would be on or against a horse with a seven second differential between one race and the next. Wherefore art thou, consistency?

Global Desire is understandably a 6-5 prohibitive favorite. But with such capricious horses as these 2YOs, I'm happy to take slightly longer odds, thank you very much, and will bet $5 to win on the 1 horses, with Jezzy at the front of that group.

Good luck at the windows!

PA fillies at Pocono

2010-06-29T10:16:00.000-07:00

The fillies are racing tonight at Pocono Downs in the Pennsylvania Sire Stakes for 3YOs. Each of the three divisions will race for $87,000 and change.

Dancinwiththestrarz (2-1) is the favorite in the seventh race at Pocono and probably the best pacer in the three divisions. Her 10 lines in the program read like a Shakespeare sonnet: 12 wins in 16 races, earnings of more than $384,000, 8 wins in her last 10 races with a pair of second place finishes, a lifetime best (1:51.4) a full three seconds faster than all but one of her challengers.

If you get her at 2-1, consider yourself lucky.

Ruffle's Kiss (5-2) is that "all but one" challenger, a filly who had a modest sophomore season (1 win in 10 starts) but has grown up big time as a 3YO and run her best three races in the past month. Her past performance chart is less Shakespearean sonnet than mathematical equation: times that have gotten faster and faster with each new race, from a season-opening qualifier of 1:57 to three consecutive races sub-1:52.

She's won three of four and was outclassed only once, on June 5, when she fell behind the stout trio of Fancy Filly, Feeling You and Native Doll and never challenged, finishing a distant seven lengths back in fourth place.

Allswelthatendswel (7-2) is the best of the rest, a fillie most comfortable in the mid 1:50s. She did break her maiden this year and has won 3 of 6 races. (Ruffle's Kiss beat her handily back on May 29.)

NF Salsa (5-1) had a trainer change last week from Sam Beegle to Steven Cook and driver change from Jonatha Roberts to David Miller. She's an interesting fillie, in the money 9 of 12 races in 2009 albeit for a lukewarm $69,000 against lesser company. But she's yet to visit the winner's circle this year in five tries. What makes her intriguing, however, is the handful of races she's gone in 1:53 or 1:52, times consistently two or three seconds faster than she paced as a 2YO. Is she rounding into even better form or has she peaked?

Post position shouldn't be much of a factor here. Dancinwiththestarz (2) should fire out to the lead and dare the field to chase her down. Ruffle's Kiss (5) should tuck in three or even four back and conserve energy for the latter stages of the pace. She's been parked in three of her last four races and shrugged off the extra exertion on her way to victories.

I'm not inclined to dance with a star likely to go off at or near even odds. Rather, I'm giving up lips (and $5 to win) on Ruffle's Kiss, understanding that it should be a heck of a duel and that a nose might cost me a fin.

Good luck at the windows!

More PA sire stakes action at Pocono Downs

2010-06-28T15:31:00.000-07:00

In a sport famous (notorious?) for puns and ceaseless word play, you have to hand it to the owners (Peter Pan Stables) of Pang Shui by No Pan Intended out of Road to Pandalay. Wow.

Pang Shui is the 2-1 favorite in tonight's Pennsylvania Sire Stakes pace for 3YO colts and geldings. Not to be lost in all puns (intended or otherwise) is Pang Shui's grandfather, a little horse you might have heard tell of by the name of Matt's Scooter.

The first of three divisions is scheduled to go in a couple of hours and should see driver Jim Morrill taking advantage of Pang Shui's great post position (1) to take the lead and fend off all comers. Though Pang Shui is on a pace to make more money this year than last, the bay colt still has been in the winner's circle only once in six tries this season. But the good news is, that win was by three lengths and came in the horse's last race on June 12. On May 22, Pang Shui had perhaps his best race of the year, an epic battle against Fred and Ginger in which he broke 1:50 by a fifth and lost by a neck.

Aracache Hanover (3-1) has won twice this year and showed twice and moved up the pecking order in the eyes of the handicappers by lowering his times from the mid- to the low 1:50s. (The drop suggests that, perhaps, we race our horses too young in North America, a conversation for another time.) Aracache Hanover has just this year caught the winning bug. In 2009, the brown colt was just as happy to place or show as he was to win. And when it came down to it, he didn't seem to mind finishing out of the money all together. That's changed in 2010. He's four for four in the money and just last week won in a lifetime best 1:50.1.

Indelible Hanover (4-1) is a cut below the two favorites but an interesting colt. He won his first two races of the year before falling on hard times which included a seventh place finish on May 22 more than 13 lengths behind Fred and Ginger. But Indelible Hanover has raced well in June, putting up a pair of second place finishes at 1:52.

Morgan Shark (5-1) had a much better sophomore season than he's having a 3YO season. In 2009, Morgan Shark won five races and finished second three times in 10 races. This year, his best is a second (to go along with two thirds) in a couple of lackluster eighth place finishes. Last week he stirred the pot with a 1:51.1 third place finish and promises to be in the money mix at the end.

None of these colts is unbeatable, but I like Pang Shui. I had a friend who used to say, 'They say the pun in the lowest form of humor but it's as high as I get.' So, in memory of Steve Berry, I'm laying down $10 to win on Pang Shui.

Up Rideau Way ...

2010-06-27T09:36:00.001-07:00

Rideau Carleton will host today's $170,000 Des Smith Classic Pace, and it should be a hum dinger.

The Des Smith more than most races (geared as they are towards 3YOs) resembles an old-fashioned Irish or English or French affair, a gathering of the sport's all stars from years past including the even money favorite, Bigtime Ball.

What a career the 6YO by Presidential Ball out of Keystone Trinidad has had: 32 lifetime wins in 70 races and earnings of more than $1.23 million. And talk about clock work: Bigtime Ball has race in 1:50.3 or less in eight of his last 10 races.

Dali (3-1) is the horse most likely to give Bigtime Ball a go, though not much of one if recent past performances are any indication. Dali is more comfortable at 1:51 or 1:52 and has lost to Big Time Ball twice since May 10. The Amateur Handicapper respects any horse who has won 18 of 59 races and tallied more than $1.3 million at 5. Just not as much as he likes Bigtime Ball.

Awesome Armbro N (5-1) has recently returned to North American soil after a stint in New Zealand and Australia. He qualified first on June 4 by five lengths in a sporting 1:53.3 but stumbled at the gate in his first race and finished ninth by 28 lengths. But he's rounding back into shape in June and is ready if his last outing is any indication. He won his last race in 1:50.2 and blazed to a :26.2 final quarter.

Lucky Man (8-1) has been an above average horse his entire career (he, too, is five), finishing in the money 31 times in 56 races and amassing a pot o' gold of more than half a million dollars. The gelding is rounding into form, winning in 1:50.1 and finishing second in a dead heat in 1:50.3. He'll need to be a lucky man as he's just a fraction slower than the horses likely to be out ahead of him.

One can't handicap the Des Smith without giving Bigtime Ball most of your love to win. But at 1-1 odds? Or perhaps even worse odds at post? For the sake of argument, let's say one of the other horses gives Big Time Ball a run. Who will that be?

I'm betting ($2 across the board) that the horse in question will be Awesome Armbro N, who will follow up last week's win with a stirring victory by a head over Bigtime Ball.

Good luck at the windows!

Up

2010-06-27T09:35:00.000-07:00

The 'other' big races at Mohawk!

2010-06-26T14:13:00.000-07:00

The North America Cup isn't the only huge race this evening at Mohawk Racetrack. In the fifth race (approximately 8:30 p.m.) the 3YO fillies will pace a purse of $666,000 in the Fan Hanover Stakes. Not too shabby for a Holiday Inn, as my old friend Kenny used to say back in Youngstown.

Fancy Filly is the early favorite at 8-5. She was nearly perfect as a sophomore, winning 10 of 12 races and finishing in the money 10 times for a total earnings of $840,000. And she's a perfect 4 or 4 this year including a phenomenal race last week in a preliminary Fan Hanover race in which she dropped back to sixth early 11 lengths off the lead, was parked and then went three wide before making her move down the stretch to win by three-quarters of a length over Rock N Soul and Ticket to Rock in 1:51.2. When she gets a good trip, as she did two weeks ago, look out! Because she's liable to break 1:50 and win going away by five lengths.

Put On a Show (2-1) looks to provide Fancy Filly with her toughest competition. Put On a Show is more consistent than Fancy Filly (1:51, 1:50, 1:51, 1:50) but has yet to crack the 1:50 barrier like Fancy Filly. Like Fancy Filly, Put On a Show is undefeated in 2010, 4 wins in 4 races for a whopping $223,000.

The last time the two horses met, Fancy Filly overcame Put On a Show down the stretch (after Put On a Show led for three quarters of the race) to take a one length victory.

This is one of the early season duels worth watching.

Rock N Soul (12-1) is a nice fillie for the price, having almost as impressive a win in the Fan Hanover preliminary as Fancy Filly. Rock N Soul fell nine lengths off the pace in fifth place, went out with Fancy Filly and followed her two and then three wide before falling by three quarters of a length. No, she didn't push Fancy Filly. But she was certainly the best of the rest.

A And GS Princess is another attractive fillie at 12-1. She won her preliminary in the Fan Hanover Stakes by a nose over Western Silk in a blazing 1:51.1, a lifetime best. She has a tendency to get parked and broke in her race on June 5 to finish seventh, 10 lengths back. She's enough horse to compete but needs a clean trip.

The aforementioned Western Silk (6-1) was game against A And GS Princess, moving steadily up the board throughout the race and falling just short on a furious move down the home stretch. (Final quarter of 27.2) Before that loss by a nose, Western Silk had an unblemished 5-0 record in 2010 including three qualifying wins.

Ticket To Rock is another of the stout 12-1 horses in the fifth race. She has improved steadily all year long, opening with a win in 1:54.4 before winning races in 1:52 and 1:51.2. The nine hole may prove a difficult hurdle, what with the plodding Bay Girl in front of Ticket To Rock in Post Position 1. If she finds racing room, she could contend.

Windsong Grand Ave (8-1) is a lightly raced fillie who has done well enough for herself (4 wins in 7 trips this year) without establishing she belongs in such rarefied company.

I wish I felt strongly about throwing out either one of the two favorites, but I don't. If I did, I'd key Fancy Filly or Put On a Show on top of a trifecta with all the 12-1 shots: Rock N Soul, A And GS Princess and Ticket to Rock. Instead, I'm putting Put On a Show on top and boxing Fancy Filly and the three long shots. I'm also putting $5 on Put On a Show to win and get her revenge over Fancy Filly.

Good luck at the windows!

The North American Cup !

2010-06-25T10:06:00.000-07:00

Wow. Days like tomorrow only come around a handful of times in any given year: We're talking $1.5 million beans, baby, to be given away (well, earned, really) at Mohawk Racetrack for the Pepsi North America Cup XXVII for 3YOs.

Rock N Roll Heaven is the prohibitive favorite at 2-1. In his honor, the Amateur Handicapper wasted a few minutes on the google in order to find out which stars went to rock n roll heaven in the month of June. They include: Bo Diddley, Dee Dee Ramone, Ray Charles, Michael Jackson and John Entwhistle. Man, they've got a great band up there, don't they?

But back to Rock N Roll Heaven ... What a 2010 campaign the bay colt is having. Forget about the $261,200 he's already earned in seven races. How about winning times of 1:48.3, 1:48.4 and 1:49.4 in last four races? The outlier was a 'sluggish' 1:52 win (going away by three lengths and boasting a :26.2 final quarter). Gotta love a horse who has won 8 of his last 10. The only cause for concern, and it's a minor one, is that Rock N Roll Heaven broke and then pulled up on June 12 at Mohawk, a race he did not finish.

All Speed Hanover (3-1) should give Rock N Roll Heaven everything he can handle. The Hanover Shoe Farms colt won the Bluegrass (in 1:50.3) and the Breeders Crown (in 1:52) on his way to amassing $662,000 as a 2YO. He's won two of four outings this season and seems to be rounding into form (his last to races were sub 1:50) just at the right moment in regards to the North America Cup.

The two favorites should also benefit from drawing the 3 and 4 posts, respectively.

Maybe I'm sentimental because I began my 25-year career in newspapers as a sportswriter, but I'm paying extra attention to Sportswriter at 4-1. The bay colt has yet to win in 2010, but did hang with the big boys in his last race, where he placed behind Rock N Roll Heaven and Kyle Major in 1:48.4. But what really has me coming back for a second look is Sportswriters sophomore season, during which he won 7 or 8 races, finished second once and earned $895,400.

His post position (6) shouldn't inhibit Sportswriter: he is fond of shooting from the six or seven hole to first and leading the rest of the way, a feat he's accomplished twice in his last 10 races including a monstrous 15 length win in a qualifier on May 20.

I'm not at all sure why Kyle Major (6-1) has worse odds than Sportswriter. He stormed from the eight hole in his most recent prelim for the North America Cup, was parked around the second turn, lead all the way down the home stretch and gave up the lead by a nose to Rock N Roll Heaven.

But can he expect a better trip? Rock N Roll Heaven has shown respectable early speed and great patience the two times he's drawn the outside, moving deliberately vs. Kyle Major in the last race from ninth to fifth to third and, finally, to victory. He was less patient in a New Jersey Sire Stakes on May 29, moving swiftly from eighth to third to first on his way to yet another win.
All Speed Hanover likewise prefers to stalk.

Sportswriter and Kyle Major may press the issue early, not wanting to fall too far behind Rock N Roll Heaven and All Speed Hanover. In doing so, they run the risk of being parked and taking a long trip.

Rock N Roll Heaven and All Speed Hanover, on the other hand, are as likely to let the two early speedsters go, settling on strong moves down the stretch.

Still, I'm a sucker for Sportswriter's awesome 2009 campaign and for his last three races, which have suggested steady improvement and a horse nearing his peak.

I'll bet $5 to win on Sportswriter.

The problem with 2YOs!

2010-06-24T10:15:00.000-07:00

You want an illustration of why one should seldom (if ever) bet on untried (or even tried) 2YOs?

Look no farther than the New Jersey Sire Stakes race for 2YO fillies tonight at the Meadowlands. Angelette Hanover is the modest early favorite at 3-1. She's won two qualifying runs in 2:02.4 and 2:03 respectively. She's started both of her races this year from the 1 post (tonight she'll start from the 8), fallen back a few lengths and then closed impressively, first for a win by a neck and most recently for a win by 2-plus lengths.

But then look at the fillie coming out of the 5 hole, Ladylike Volo, who began today at 10-1. On June 10, Ladylike Volo cruised to a sixth place finish, 31 lengths off the leader in 2:08.1. The program does not say whether she broke a sweat or not. We're doubtful. But the very next week, Ladylike Volo was asked to do more, roaring from the sixth post into first place, where she stayed until the final call, fading to fifth but only a length and a half out of first. Her time was a righteous (for such a young lady) 2:01.1.

That's right, Ladylike Volo shaved 7 full seconds off her time in two weeks.

Can we expect, then, that she'll race in 1:54.1 tonight?

Hardly.

But that seven second time differential illustrates why picking green apples and 2YO horses are dangerous occupations.

Guatemala (4-1) won her only time out this year in 2:03.2, finishing off a sweet pocket trip with a sprint to the lead and a two length victory.

Creme de Cocoa (7-2) also won her only race of the year handily, by nearly six lengths in 2:04.4.

This should be another great race to watch but perhaps a less great race to bet on.

For fun I'm going to bet a $1 exacta box with Ladylike Volo and Guatemala.

Good luck at the windows!

From New York to New Jersey, Sire Stakes heat up

2010-06-23T11:19:00.000-07:00

Which side of the argument do you take?

1. Never ever bet on a 2YO, especially not at the beginning of the season.
2. Why not?

The New Jersey Sire Stakes for 2YO fillies kicks off on Thursday night with four heats in the first leg of the series. None of the fillies has raced more than twice and some have only raced once.

Global Desire opened at odds of 2-1 on the strength of a two length victory over What's Your Name on June 17. A week later she's back and looking to improve on her 2:03.1 best with Ron Pierce in the sulky.

On the 10th of June, the second favorite, Electra Blue Chip (7-2) blew by Global Desire at the half and never trailed in an impressive four length win. Her time was 2:02. (She was parked in her last race and never challenged.)

What's Your Name (9-2) finished a spirited second to Global Desire in a race that feature a :27.3 final fraction. Her best finish is in a time of 2:03.3.

There is no reason at all to think any of the other horses will compete at or near the 2:00 mark, and not nearly enough evidence to suggest they won't. The favorites should dominate the race but might not. This is an exciting time of the year, when youth is served if not handicappers.

Who will be the next big fillie? One of the early season favorites or an as yet unknown on the verge of taking down the competition and padding her resume? And what did John Campbell see in 8-1 shot Miss Lee or Brian Sears in 10-1 shot Too Busy to Care? Do they know something we don't?

I'm putting $2 to win on Electra Blue Chip, but purely for fun.

Good luck at the windows!

We'll look at the other fillie heat as well as the two stakes races for 2YO colts and geldings tomorrow.

New York Sire Stakes ... cont'd

2010-06-22T11:08:00.000-07:00

The New York Sire Stakes shuffles off from Buffalo to Yonkers Raceway and the Art Watson Pace for 3YO fillies.

The fifth race at Yonkers tonight (scheduled to go off at 8:30 p.m. EST) features 9-5 favorite Tia Maria Hanover. The bay aunt has won her last two races. On June 13, she left from the eighth post position on a sloppy track, stalked for the first half of the race well back (7 lengths) before making an heroic move to sixth and then fifth (parked down the backstretch) and charging home in 28.3 seconds to win by a neck over Buy Art in a lifetime best 1:54.2. She's finished in the money five of six outings including three third place finishes.

Buy Art is, not surprisingly, the pick to finish second at 3-1 odds. She'll be driven by George Brennan and should, like Tia Maria, come from off the pace. Both favorites much prefer hanging back before getting their grooves on. And it may get crowded at the back of the field, as Max's Leading Lady (4-1) also prefers to come off the pace and has shown enough speed to contend down the stretch.

The pace should be set by Perfectly Content who, two races back on June 3 rocketed out of the 8 hole to take the lead at the first quarter. She led to the wire, where she won by a neck in 1:56.2.

Tia Maria Hanover has finished in the money in 9 of her last 10 races and there's no reason to think she won't be there again tonight. However, she'll be battling two other strong closers in Buy Art and Max's Leading Lady. It should be a wail of a duel though Tia Maria has consistently shown half a second to a second more oomph! in the last quarter than her competitors.

What the three favorites don't want to let happen is for Perfectly Content to get too far ahead at the half mile pole.

The odds probably won't justify much of an investment in Tia Maria Hanover, perhaps $5 on her nose to win. But it should be a highly entertaining race.

Good luck at the windows!

New York Sires Stakes ...

2010-06-20T09:25:00.000-07:00

He's Gorgeous was a dominating pacer as a 2YO, winning 9 of 11 starts in '09 and amassing $250,000 in earnings. Huzzah! He's Gorgeous has had a challenging starts to his 3YO campaign, finishing out of the money twice and giving up the lead down the stretch of his last race (June 10) to lose by a neck. He's still earned $75,000 already this year and his qualifying races have been impressive. As recently as May 10 he blazed to a 1:52.4 and won going away by more than 22 lengths!

He's Gorgeous looks to round into form this afternoon when he races in a New York Sire Stakes race for colts and gelding at Buffalo Raceway. He is the 2-1 favorite and should get his strongest competition from Art Two D Two, who is coming off an easy win on June 10 at Monticello in 1:56.1. His previous three races demonstrate why the odds maker has him at 7-2: in chronological order, a win in 1:52.3 and two third place finishes in 1:51.4 and 1:51.2. He's been in the money in six of eight races this season. His tough post (8) shouldn't be too much of an obstacle: On May 14 he shot out from the 7 hole to take the early lead and battled Bullish Blue Chip for two miles before winning by a neck.

Real Gentleman is a stealthy 9-2 but one wonders what the odds maker sees in a horse with a lifetime best 1:57. Seems he's out of his league here.

SNP Bluechip, on the other hand, is intriguing at 8-1. Though the colt has no compunction about finishing second or third or fourth and has shown little gumption on the lead, he races consistently sub-1:55 and should challenge the rest of the pack for third.

The two favorites are a toss up, so I'm playing a $1 trifecta box with He's Gorgeous,

Good luck at the windows!

Shufflin' off to Buffalo, metaphorically speaking ...

2010-06-16T11:18:00.000-07:00

Buffalo Raceway is hosting five New York Sire Stakes race this evening featuring 3YO colts. (The raceway will host filly trotters on Saturday and colt pacers on Sunday.)

The second ($26,200) race on tonight's card features the favorite, Margarita Man, who is pegged at 5-2 in the early odds. It is difficult to know just what this bay gelding will produce, one similar to those during his 2009 campaign (during which he won 5 of 14 races for $108,000) one similar to every race he's run in 2010? He matched his lifetime fastest speed of 1:59 on May 1, but it was in a lackluster sixth place finish. He's been out of the money in all four of his starts this year, though his June 7 race at Yonkers was interesting: Margarita Man bolted from the five hole onto the lead, where he stayed for all four calls until fading to fifth down the stretch. He lost by five lengths.

The No. 2 horse, Kona, is the second favorite at 3-1. He certainly has more quality starts in 2010 than does Margarita Man. Two races ago, on May 31, he won by four lengths in 2:00.1 after being parked early and being forced three wide at the three quarters pole. An impressive outing. But Kona has his shortcomings, too: He fell 10 lengths off the pace in a race June 7 and never challenged, finishing fifth more than 11 lengths back. That race was eerily similar to one on May 6 when the gelding fell 13 lengths back at the first call and faded to 15 at the finish.

Vagra (9-2) provided stiff competition in 2009, winning 8 of 17 races while finishing in the money 14 times, albeit against flaccid opposition. (He earned a paltry $23,000.) In three starts this year he has a victory (in 1:59 even) and a third (in 2:04.1). Will he take matters into his own hands?

Classical Winner has the fewest blemishes on his youthful record, romping to a qualifying win on April 10 in 1:58.1 and posting a win a month later in 1:58. He's even made the circuit in 1:57.1, though in a second place finish 3 lengths back. His obstacles are breaking (in 3 of his last 7) and a mildly unfavorable post (6).

All of these horses have warts, some worse than the others. So, all things being equal in the uncertainty department, I'm going with the horse (Classical Winner) who has been fastest on the track.

Good luck at the races!

Late spring season heating up ...

2010-06-04T13:15:00.000-07:00

Last week Harrah's Chester hosted the Pennsylvania Sire Stakes and The Amateur Handicapper took one on the nose. Fortunately, at this time of year there's always tomorrow or, at least, the day after tomorrow.

The Meadows hosted three divisions of the Currier & Ives for 3-year-olds this afternoon and Pocono Downs will host the $250,000 James M. Lynch Memorial Stake final on Saturday. The latter is a fascinating race with an outstanding crop of 3-year-old fillies.

The favorite in the James M. Lynch is Fancy Filly at 5-2. The bay was outstanding in her last race, a remarkable 1 and a quarter length win in 1:51.1 over Sand Windsor and All Heart Gal. In fact, Fancy Filly has won six in a row and eight out of her last nine. Her 'worst' race came on Sept. 29 when she won by four lengths in 1:54.2. The lady can fly.

Fancy Filly would be the prohibitive favorite were it not for her unfortunate post position (9) and some pretty strong competition. Feeling You, the second favorite at 3-1, has also won a race recently in 1:51.1, beating Native Doll and No Bad Luck by nearly two lengths in an elimination heat on May 29. Like Fancy Filly, Feeling You has also won eight of her last nine starts, all in 2010.

Fancy Filly has won from as far out as the seven hole, Feeling You from as far out as the sixth. Neither horse cares much for the early lead (though they will both take it if it is theirs for the taking), preferring to stalk a few lengths back and to make monster moves in the second half of a race. Fancy Filly has 26.2 and 26.3 final quarters in her last five races while Feeling You has only once posted a final quarter in 26.2.

A toss up.

At 4-1, No Bad Luck is no bad horse. In her most impressive race of the year on May 5 at Pocono, she was parked for half the race and roared from the nine hole to finish third in 1:51.4, losing to Feeling You by .2 seconds. She entered that May 5 outing on a six race winning streak, during which she beat up on lesser competition than she'll face Saturday running consistently in the 1:53s and 1:54s. She's just a notch below the two favorites.

Even more interesting to me is Ruffle's Kiss at 5-1. She won her May 10 elimination pulling away down the stretch in 1:51.4 after spending three quarters of the race in the pocket. In five races this year, Ruffle's Kiss has not been out of the money. She likes to come off the pace and will probably not vie for the early lead despite her advantageous post (3).

Sand Windsor got pulled along to her second place finish behind Fancy Filly on May 10. Her 1:51.2 was atypical as she's much more likely to run in the mid-1:50s. (Ditto All Heart Gal, who was swept up in third in 1:51.3 before she even knew what she was doing. She much prefers going in 1:53 or 1:54.

All things being equal, I'd bet Fancy Filly to win. But all things are not equal. I'm betting $10 on Feeling You to win because she has a better post position and seems quite capable of fending off Fancy Filly in a stretch duel. I'm also going to bet a $1 box trifecta with Fancy Filly, Feeling You and Ruffle's Kiss.

Good luck at the windows!

Pennsylvania Sire Stakes Today @ Chester!

2010-05-27T06:36:00.000-07:00

The fifth division of the Pennsylvania Sire Stakes may be the most competitive of them all.

The early morning favorite is Pilgrims Taj at 5-2, though it's difficult to imagine getting those odds come post time. Pilgrims Taj had one of the most impressive 2-year-old seasons in harness racing last year, winning 7 and finishing second three times in 10 races. The bay colt hauled in more than $735,000 and clocked a lifetime best winning time of 1:55.2. (He finished second to Holiday Road back in August in 1:54.1.)

The only drawback to Pilgrims Taj, and it's a considerable one, is that he has only raced in two qualifiers in 2010 and broke his last time out, finishing fifth more than 17 lengths off the pace. On May 13 he did qualify in 1:57.2 after being parked on the backstretch.

B Winner K (3-1) should challenge Pilgrims Taj throughout and has every chance to win. His last race was stellar: he was parked early, broke late and still won going away by three lengths in 1:56.3. He also won easily in his second qualifier on April 30, where he cruised to a four length win in 1:59.2.

B Winner K showed flashes of talent in 09, winning more than $25,000 in 12 races but winning only one of them. His two wins this year have netted an impressive $40,000 and put him squarely in the running to move forward in the stakes.

Tough Call (5-1) is like the little girl who, when she is good is very very good, and when she is bad is very very bad. To wit: in four faces this year, the colt has a win and a place and two eighth place finishes. This is a competitive horse, though, and worth a look in exotics.

The last horse worthy of attention in the fifth division is Mr McRail, driven by Yannick Gingras. The colt opened the 2010 campaign with a 10 length qualify win in 1:58 and has been heavily raced this spring, finishing in the money three out of six tries. His owners must think highly of Mr McRail and also be disappointed in how the horse has been races thus far: He's had four trainers since September including Sherry Libengood, who replaced Lisa Beinhauer on May 18.

Though B Winner K has a mild habit of breaking (he's had missteps in four of his last five races) I still love this colt not only for his ability to power through his mistakes (witness his last race) but also for his speed and favorable post position (2).

I'm going to bet $5 on B Winner K and will play a cheap trifecta box with B Winner K, Pilgrims Taj and Tough Call.

Good luck at the windows!

Pennsylvania Sire Stakes Today @ Chester!

2010-05-27T06:12:00.000-07:00

What an exciting day!

Harrah's Chester Racetrack is hosting the Pennsylvania Sire Stakes. This morning, the Amateur Handicapper looks at the fourth and fifth division races.

Kirty Dream is the 2-1 favorite in the fourth division, scheduled to leave the gate at around 3:25 in the afternoon. The bay gelding will be looking for his fourth consecutive victory and for his fifth win in his last seven starts. He's already won more than $46,000 this year and his lifetime best is 1:57.2. While that number is unimpressive when compared to the favorites in the first three divisions, his times have been dropping all year and his last race was his best race (a speed rating of 80).

Red Light (9-2) should give Kirty Dream all he can handle and is my pick to win the race out of the seventh post position. Red Light has two wins and two second place finishes this year with awesome speed ratings of 89, 89, 77 and 85, in chronological order. He has had success twice coming from the five hole and has finished two of his last four races in under 1:57. The only concern here is that Red Light has posted his fastest time not in his wins (1:57.3) but in bridesmaid races.

Keystone Bernard (5-1) is intriguing though I'll stay away from him today, following my hard and fast rule never to bet on a horse his first time out in any given season/year.

Chimon (4-1) spent most of last August racing off stride and finishing well off the pace and out of the money. But 2010 has been a more benign year for the colt, who has only broken once in four tries. His qualifier on April 29 was an impressive eight length victory in 1:58. His best time of the year -- 1:56.1 -- came in his last race. He led wire to homestretch, where he gave up a one length lead to finish fourth, five lengths back. That fade is cause for concern.

I'm going to bet $5 to win on Red Light and another $10 to box Red Light and Kirty Dream.

Up next: the fifth division.

Pennsylvania Sire Stakes @ Harrah's Chester

2010-05-25T13:12:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, The Amateur Handicapper took a look at the first division of the Pennsylvania Sire Stakes and found Cassis the creme de la field. Today, we'll handicap the second and third division races.

The second division shouldn't take very long to handicap: On the Tab should finish in the money. In fact, the 6-5 favorite should finish first by a wide margin. The six-horse field doesn't offer up much in the way of quality opposition. At first glance, On the Tab's past performances don't jump out at you. Three second place finishes in four races with a win in the mix. Two road bumps -- sixth and 10th place finishes -- from late last year.

But let's examine those second place finishes a little more closely, shall we?

His last time out, On the Tab lost by nearly four lengths to Premier Hanover. The former finished in 1:56.2, the latter in 1:55.3. Just how good was Premier Hanover? He blew the doors off in 1:55.3 despite being parked for nearly half the race. Wow. On the Tab, on the other hand, made a nice move from fourth at the half to finish second. He was game, that's for sure.

On the Tab also played second fiddle to another of the early season heroes, Mystic River, who trotted home in 1:56.2 to finish ahead of On the Tab by a length and a quarter. On the Tab made a move (again) from fourth to second, moving from 4 lengths behind to lose a hotly contested race.

All of which is to say, On the Tab should dominate the much more modest competition he'll face this time around in the second division Thursday afternoon.

I will probably stay away from betting the second division because there are too many unknowns (and known unknowns, as the secretary of defense used to say): Texas Ridge (8-1) and Can't Lose (6-1) haven't started a single race in 2010. Who knows what they'll bring to the dance? Hanover Empire (9-2), meanwhile, has raced eight times, but only finished in the money once. His last two starts have been sub 1:58, however.

Nighttime Flash (5-1) and Premier Event (10-1) are also lightly raced and have been largely unsuccessful to this point.

So, let's look at the much more intriguing and competitive third division.

The aforementioned Premier Hanover is the early 2-1 favorite and why not after his last race? Why not? Well, how about his race two weeks ago, you know, the race where he broke out of the gate, had trouble with stride all race long and finished 41 lengths back? Caveat emptor, bettors! Though you gotta love the 1:55.3.

Freedom Ridge (3-1) by contrast has been a model of consistency. In his last nine starts he's finished first four times and third four times. He has a lone second place finish during that span. But he's never touched Premier Hanover's speed. His best winning time is 1:57.2; his best time to show 1:56.4.

Hard Livin (7-2) has finished ahead of Freedom Ridge twice in races since last July but has also struggled of late, either breaking or getting parked. He doesn't seem to have much heart for longer trips though leaving from the three hole shouldn't pose an insurmountable test for the colt whose best winning time is 1:56.2.

Mystery Photo is a mystery at 4-1. Sure, the colt finished 25 lengths back in a qualifier on April 22. But his last win on May 20 was an astounding ninth length romp in 1:54.2. And that might not have been his best race this month! Two weeks ago he was parked for three quarters of a race and still managed to get home in third place in 1:56 flat and only a length and a quarter off the pace. He has spent the entire year running at or under 1:56.

I'm going to bet $10 to win on Mystery Photo, especially if he goes off at anything near 4-1. (I'd probably take him as low as 8-5, honestly.) I'm not sure there's much value yet in the exotics, though I'll watch the tote board to see if it makes sense to box Mystery Photo, Premier Hanover and Hard Livin. My guess is the pay-off won't warrant the wager.

Good luck at the windows!

TGIS ... Thank God It's Spring!

2010-05-24T08:15:00.000-07:00

What an exciting night of racing at Harrah's Chester this Thursday, what with five $52,000 heats of the Pennsylvania Sire Stakes for 3-year-old colts and geldings!

The first division goes off at 12:45 p.m. (EST) and features the prohibitive favorite, Cassis, who begins the betting at 8-5. Just how impressive has this colt been in 2010? Well, he hasn't lost yet in six starts (including two qualifiers), clocking a season-opening 1:58, a time that has steadily improved until he trotted a lifetime best 1:55.4 last week. Not only does Cassis refuse to lose, he can't stand to see a rump in front of him: he's been on the lead in 23 of his last 25 fractions. Amazing.

Cassis will come from his worst lifetime post (the 7 hole) but that little impediment hardly seems worth raising as an issue. He should be at or near the lead early and should win against a field of slightly above average but not great horses.

I'd be shocked if Cassis went off at 8-5 and would jump on the chance to bet him at that or longer odds. I'm not holding my breath. Rather, I've studied the program looking for likely candidates to finish second in an exacta and/or third in a trifecta.

Ah, but that's a tough nut to crack!

Pilgrims Chuckie (pp 1) broke out of the gate in his last race and never recovered, finishing a lackluster seventh, 34 lengths off the lead. That performance contrasts utterly to Chuckie's race two weeks back, when he sprinted out of post position 7, took the lead at the quarter and never trailed, winning by 12 lengths in 1:57.1. The race makes one wonder what the horse might have achieved with anyone breathing down his neck. But he wasn't pushed and his lifetime best 1:57.1 leaves him squarely a class (or two) below Cassis. His odds are 6-1.

Monsignor Flan has broken stride in three of his six lifetime starts, hence his 12-1 odds. But two races ago he dueled Touch Me down to the wire in 1:55 flat to lose by a nose. The colt is definitely capable ... of finishing in the money or 40 lengths back!

Though I love his name, I can't see Beer League doing much and have to scratch my head at his 4-1 early odds. Yes, the gelding won a qualifier on May 10, but it was in 1:58. He's finished in the money in his last two starts, a pair of thirds, but again in 1:57/1:58ish. The owners changed trainers from Michael Keeling to Paula Wellwood and back to Keeling in the past three weeks.

MM's Lucky Boy seems a shoe-in at least to compete with Cassis and to finish in the money. At one stretch at the end of '09 and beginning of '10 the gelding won seven consecutive starts (including two qualifying races) and he gamely followed Cassis to a second place finish the last time out in 1:56.2. He has early speed and outside posts don't seem to bother him in the least.

So where does all this leave us?

Cassis should win the race. MM's Lucky Boy should either place or show. I'm going to put Cassis on top of MM's Lucky boy and then box Monsignor Flan and Pilgrims Chuckie. I'm also considering a cheap trifecta box for the aforementioned three horses.

Good luck at the windows!

(Tomorrow I'll handicap divisions two and three of the Pa. sire stakes.)

Hoosier Park sends trotters off for $30,000

2010-05-19T08:41:00.000-07:00

Race 12 tonight at Hoosier Park will mark The Amateur Handicapper's return to wagering after a winter spent picking the brains of the smartest professional handicappers in the business (Dave Brower of the Meadowlands, Keith Gisser of Northfield Park and Derick Giwner of Harness Eye).

Brower suggested I (we) only wager online at The Meadowlands because it is the only harness track in the nation with a consistently large enough handle to accept large bets that won't wildly swing the odds in one direction or another. Gisser respectfully disagreed, pointing out it's a rare race at Northfield that features such a swing notwithstanding the track's lower handle.

I'm splitting the difference between the two, wagering this spring and summer on "featured" races as designated and posted at the U.S. Trotting Association's Web site.

A helpful digression: Speaking of the U.S. Trotting Assocation's Web site, I should point out here and now that it's an invaluable handicapping tool and should be consulted on a regular (ie daily) basis by any serious (or even semi-serious) harness handicapper. I've had the pleasure of perusing the site for the better part of a year and I am constantly finding (or, more likely in my case, stumbling upon) fascinating and crucial information.

If you want to know where the featured races are each week in North America, the USTA Web site is your one-stop shop: http://racing.ustrotting.com/trackside/events_calendar/events_calendar.cfm?daterequest=05/19/2010&showall=race

In addition to the above linked feature, the Web site is a treasure trove of information. It also puts a human (or equine) face on the numbers, facts and statistics that are the life's blood of handicapping.

End digression.

The 12th race at Hoosier Park is an open trot for 3-year-olds. Not surprisingly, the two favorites will originate from the 1(Sally, 3-1) and 2 (SL Yankee, 2-1) post positions and both horses obviously could do some damage.

I'm not enthralled with the bonafides of any of the other horses until one works one's way down to the 8 post and Ideal Secret (4-1). I like Secret's chances because the chestnut filly has logged three speed ratings in the low 70s in her last four races. Yes, two races back she did lose to three lesser horses in this race (Diamond Back Joe, Gotupnleft and Cherishment) but she was parked for more than half of that race and simply faded to fourth down the home stretch. With better racing luck, she's clearly better than the three who beat her.

I'm equally intrigued with CJ's Rascal, a bay gelding sporting an attractive morning line of 6-1. Though CJ's speed rating haven't been anything to write home about (mid to high 60s) the horse has a win and two places in four previous races. The win was perhaps the most impressive of the three in-the-money finishes, coming as it did from the 8 hole.

If Catherinethegreat hadn't drawn the 10 post she'd have slightly better odds than 9-2. She's won two of her last five races and finished third twice. One of her wins, April 12 at Northfield Park, was a scorching 1:59.2.

Call me crazy, but my inclination is to box CJ's Rascal and Catherinethegreat in $5 exacta, throwing out the two favorites. That also means throwing out the horses in the Nos. 1 and 2 post positions, an unnerving proposition!

Bloodlines ...

2010-04-28T16:35:00.000-07:00

I'm always in the market for a great book about horse racing, and recently a good one came to my attention: Bloodlines: A Horse Racing Anthology, edited by Maggie Estep and Jason Starr. Estep is the author of three Ruby Murphy mysteries set at the New York race tracks. Starr wrote Fake I.D., the story of a Manhattan bouncer whose attempt to join a horse racing syndicate has decidedly awful results.

Bloodlines features both fiction (by Lee Child, Jerry Stahl and others) and nonfiction (by Laura Hillenbrand, Jane Smiley and others). The collection was brought to my attention, however, by James Surowiecki, a financial columnist for The New Yorker and the author of the intriguingly titled essay "Wise Crowds and Foolish Bettors," which has an even more interesting subtitle, "Why It's Hard to Beat the Track."

In the casino, Surowiecki explains, the house has "an ineradicable mathematical edge. So over time it's effectively inevitable that you will lose." At the track, however, where wagers are made on the pari-mutuel system, smart money should, in theory, win more often than dumb money.

Only, that's not the way it works out.

The wisdom of the crowd, Surowiecki says, is unassailable. The odds at post-time were the most accurate gauge of just how a race was likely to finish.

"Over the season as a whole," Surowiecki writes of a study done in 1970 at Belmont Park and Aqueduct, "the favorite finished first most often, the second-favored horse finished first, second most often, and so on."

"Even more startling there was an amazingly close match between the odds on horses and how frequently they won. Take, for instance, the 312 races run that year in which seven horses ran. In those races, the favorite was predicted to win 33 percent of the time. It actually won 34 percent of the time. The second-place horse was predicted to win 22 percent of the time, and it won 21 percent of the time, while the third-place horse was predicted to win 16 percent of the time and, in fact, won 16 percent of the time."

Surowiecki does not suggest betting always with the crowd. After all, it only picks the winning horse 3.4 times out of 10. That's still a lot of losing. Rather, he suggests the savvy gambler may make a killing betting against the smart crowd when that savvy gambler is sure that in a particular instance the crowd has got it dead wrong.

He pointed to Smarty Jones in the Belmont as one such occasion when, in its Triple Crown hysteria, the crowd turned from wise to dumb, lavishing short odds on a horse that really shouldn't have been favored at the distance.

I'm not sure how much of Surowiecki's theory translates to harness racing, though my guess is the crowds are as smart betting standardbreds as they are thoroughbreds.

Sundry last questions for handicapper Derick Giwner ...

2010-04-25T11:35:00.000-07:00

This post will wrap up my lengthy interview with Derick Giwner, Editor-in-Chief of Harness Eye (www.harnesscharts.com) and a savvy handicapper to boot.

Here are a few of the odds and ends:

The Amateur Handicapper: Handicappers often speak of "positive intent." Do you look for it? Can you elaborate on the concept if you do?

DG: Simply put, sometimes we need to handicap the people and their intentions just as much as the horses. For a novice, I wouldn’t even consider bringing this up. It is hard enough to handicap the PP lines.

AH: Has handicapping gotten "easier" with the advent of the Internet, race replays, etc.?

DG: It has gotten easier for the “Average Joe” and harder for the professional. So much information is available at everyone’s fingertips that almost nothing goes unnoticed. When a horse gets locked in he is guaranteed to go off as an underlay the following week. I’m almost more interested in the horse that was trapped in last and had a hint of pace, because people tend to focus on the pack up front more than the rear.

AH: I've intuitively come to the conclusion that exotic wagering is the only way to get a bang for your buck these days. What to you think about exactas, trifectas, the Pick 4, etc.? Though "gimmick" is a pejorative word, these sorts of bets have really entered the mainstream, haven't they?

DG: The Pick Four is my favorite bet; especially at the Meadowlands where you get a 15% takeout. The pool has really grown nicely over the years. My rule is simple: I only play for a max of $96 unless there is a carryover.

AH: Let's get philosophical here: Why do you handicap harness racing? I just finished reading a book called Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and the stock trader who narrates the book, Jesse Livermore, said he was in it for one reason: "the thrill of being right." Is that the ultimate pay-off, being right when so many others are wrong? Is it the joy of coming up with a long shot no one else considered?

DG: Other than the obvious of I get paid for it? I have asked myself this question over and over. I honestly don’t have an exact answer. The simplest answer is I enjoy it. I wouldn’t say I only enjoy winning. I have, on occasion, rooted home a horse I picked in my analysis over a horse that would net me a bigger personal profit. I really want to pick as many winners as possible for the public. There is a certain pride in doing the best job you can.

Place yer bets!

2010-04-22T08:02:00.000-07:00

When I hit the Jug last September (to do a little 'live blogging' for the U.S.T.A.) my 'usual' bet was $10 to win on the horse of my choice. But when it came to one of the Jug prelims, I upped that $10 to $20. I had handicapped the preliminary that included Well Said and honestly couldn't see any other result but a Well Said victory, never mind that the horse was coming from the seven hole. I had a ten spot in my hand to bet but as I approached the window I saw that Well Said was going off at 2-1. Hmm. Not a very handsome payday for a horse I was certain (certain I tell you!) was a shoe-in. So I laid out another $10 for a total of $20.

That little scenario got me to thinking about how the experts and professionals handle odds that are shorter than they'd hoped for. I put the following question to Derick Giwner, Editor-in-Chief of the Harness Eye, When you have a horse you love and it's going off at short odds, do you ever double your 'normal'-sized bet? How much should one bet on any given race in the context of someone who is a "regular" bettor?

Said Giwner, "I see no reason to bet more because the odds are shorter. You should bet more when the odds are better. Personally, I rarely raise my bets unless I’m hot.
Only the person themselves can decide how much to bet. It depends on what they can afford to lose and what their individual goals are. Do you want to hit big or are you satisfied with grinding out a small profit?"

Giwner's answer brings up an important point in gambling about conviction. I often don't have it. If I like a horse at 4-1 I should LOVE a horse at 8-1. But as soon as the odds move to 8-1 I begin to have doubts. What does everyone else know that I don't? Why doesn't everyone else love my horse as much as I do?

But Giwner argues for faith in your own handicapping. I'm going to try that next time!

(Contact The Amateur Handicapper at bill.eichenberger@gmail.com)

2010-04-20T18:56:00.000-07:00

My home track is Scioto Downs in Columbus, Ohio. On most nights we can usually expect a card of $2,000 races with maybe one (two at most) races for slightly more than that.

With small purses and a low handle in mind, I asked Derick Giwner, Editor-in-Chief of Harness Eye (www.harnesscharts.com) if I should look elsewhere to wager on harness racing (ie the Internet)? I also wondered what Giwner thought my chances were of steady success with horses at the level of the $2,000 purse?

"While I enjoy cheaper racing," Giwner told me, "I don’t believe you can focus on it exclusively and prosper. If you are playing for enjoyment only, then Scioto is fine on an everyday basis. But the small pools and unpredictable nature of lower level horses make it hard to consistently perform at a high level."

At the other end of the handicapping spectrum, I wondered as well how difficult it was for a pro like Giwner to handicap great cards (Hambletonian, Jug, etc) because the horses are so good?

"Yes, sometimes good cards are harder to decipher than bad ones," he said. "That is why it is so important to pick your spots. On a Saturday card at Yonkers or the Meadowlands, you can’t possibly have a solid opinion on all of the races."

2010-04-18T12:46:00.000-07:00

Several years ago, I read James Michener's book, Sports in America. In it, he spends several pages with a professional gambler who bets on horse races for a living. The gambler in question might only make one or two bets during a given program, skipping the other eight or nine races altogether.

Michener contended that the best sport for professional gamblers was horse racing because of parimutuel betting. He argued that gamblers in Las Vegas playing cards or shooting dice were going up against immutable odds, and the odds always favored the house in the end. In handicapping, on the other hand, gamblers were going up against other gamblers, namely the masses. And that should, in theory, give the professional handicapper a huge edge, regardless of a track's takeout.

This raised two questions that I put to Derick Giwner, the Editor-in-Chief of Harness Eye. First, if you're serious about making money at the track, should you limit your betting to a couple of races?

"Yes! You cannot make a living betting every race. The best thing you can do is show up with a plan of attack," Giwner told me. "Who do I like tonight and what odds are acceptable? If your plays fall into the proper criteria you bet, if not, you pass."

Second, as a professional handicapper you have to pick all the races. How difficult is that? And given how tough it is to handicap, what sort of winning percentage do you deem "successful"? Also, does it ever bug you to be giving away your best ideas to the betting public?

"I would like to skip about one-third of the races on most cards. You simply can’t have a strong opinion on every race. Believe it or not, I have actually written, 'I have no opinion here. For the record, I’ll pick X, Y & Z.' I try to be honest with the readers. If I don’t have a strong opinion, I try to allow that to shine through in my comments.

"I think win percentage depends on what track you are handicapping. At the Meadowlands, I’d say over 25% and a Return on Investment of $1.75 on a $2 wager. Yes, that is a loss, but when picking every race, I’d be a fool to think I could consistently stay above $2. I’m hovering around $1.75 right now and my win percentage is about 26%, I think.

"A bit earlier in the year I was in the $1.90’s and over 30%. Typically I do much better when June rolls around. I tend to pick quite a few price horses in 2-year-old races which pick up my ROI. By contrast, at Yonkers, I’d consider an ROI above $1.90 and at win rate of 30% or better to be pretty good. I don’t have numbers in front of me, but I believe I came in around $1.96 from October to December at Yonkers last year. In addition, I have had a few $2-plus years there over the years.

"I have heard people talk about keeping some horses for themselves and not reporting complete information. That is not my game. If I know something, the people reading will know it (unless I’ve been told something confidentially). I’m never worried about my price. I just want to pick winners."

Harness Eye/Derick Giwner

2010-04-16T15:28:00.000-07:00

Athletes often talk about "being in the zone."

In March, over at Harness Eye, Editor-in-Chief Derick Giwner got in the zone and stayed there for the better part of the month. He had one of those streaks for the ages, one that handicappers like me only dream about. In a post about his good luck, Giwner told his readers, "things have been very clear for me lately."

I asked the erstwhile handicapper how one achieves that sort of clarity? What causes the clouds (or fog) to roll away?

"If I knew how to make the clouds wash away and bring sunny handicapping days on a regular basis, I wouldn’t be answering questions right now. I’d be sitting beside some pool counting my money," he told me.

"As unscientific as it may be, handicapping is very streaky. Just like a batter will often say the baseball looks like a beach ball, sometimes I look at a race and I just know who will win."

He also knows when his streaks, as all good things must, is coming to an end.

"What is interesting is that it is often obvious when the tide is turning, but I don’t have the luxury of just not making selections for a week or two. It is my job to suck it up and make selections that I have no confidence in.

"Saturday, March 27 was one of those nights at the Meadowlands. I looked over the card and knew that I didn’t like anything. Then the races are completed and low and behold, I pick a goose egg for the night. It is virtually impossible to pick every race on every card during the entire meet and show a profit at the Meadowlands, especially when I’m picking two or three days before the races are even going to be contested.

"I do recall two years ago showing a positive ROI in the paper for the Championship Meet at the Meadowlands. I have always felt that if you allowed me to only bet the horses I really liked, I would show a profit over the course of a year.

"Unfortunately I enjoy 'playing' too much."

Don't we all? Don't we all!

Derick Giwner/Harness Eye

2010-04-14T08:51:00.000-07:00

Should the amateur handicapper worry about handle? My inclination is to say, Not so much. Most of us are not going to regularly make bets large enough to move the odds. Then again, if we wager at a track where the odds can change quickly and dramatically, we may see our 10-1 shot go off at 4-1 (or worse) if enough late money comes in. So handle is definitely worth considering, even if we decide in the end not to worry too much about it.

When I talked to Dave Brower, the handicapping guru at the Meadowlands, he touted that harness racing mecca as pretty much the only place he'd bother to bet because of its consistently large handles.

Brower told me, "To be honest, the only track you should be betting in harness racing is the Meadowlands. It's the only track that offers even decent size pools where you have a chance to make a score. It's a sad state of affairs when I have to say that, but there is NO other track that can handle a serious harness player. A bet of $50 or $100 directly affects the pools at any other place."

Recently, I asked Derick Giwner, Editor-in-Chief of Harness Eye, whether or not he agreed with Brower's assessment.

"I believe that other tracks can handle a wager in the $50 to $100 range," Giwner told me. "Unfortunately we are talking about a short list. The handle at Yonkers has increased to an average of close to $100,000 a race. While that pales in comparison to the Meadowlands during Saturday night, Yonkers handle has finally reached a point where a $100 bet is not going to make any eye-catching movement in the pools."

My home track is Scioto Downs in Columbus, Ohio. We can usually expect a card of $2,000 races with maybe one (two at most) races for slightly more than that. With that in mind, I asked Giwner, Should I look elsewhere to wager on harness racing (ie the Internet)? Is it impossible to have steady success with horses at the level of the $2,000 purse? Conversely, it can be a challenge handicapping great cards (Hambletonian, Jug, etc.) because the horses are so good, can't it?

Said Giwner: "While I enjoy cheaper racing, I don’t believe you can focus on it exclusively and prosper. If you are playing for enjoyment only, then Scioto is fine on an everyday basis. But the small pools and unpredictable nature of lower level horses make it hard to consistently perform at a high level.

"Yes, sometimes good cards are harder to decipher than bad ones. That is why it is so important to pick your spots. On a Saturday card at Yonkers or the Meadowlands, you can’t possibly have a solid opinion on all of the races."